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History has proved that communism failed at many levels during the first global competition between the capitalist and socialist camps during the Cold War. As a result, the socialist camp was dissolved. China is one of the few communist countries to survive in the twenty-first century. The Chinese economy was on the verge of collapse in the 1970s but began to take off in the early 1980s, guided by the China model. China became the world's second largest economy in 2010 and has quickly expanded its enormous global market and political influence. The second global competition between the capitalist countries and China has started. The second global competition is in fact between the China model and the Washington Consensus. Will Western hegemonies end as the result of the second global competition? Will China be able to rewrite the international rules? Will the Chinese communist political system collapse during the competition? What should the West do to the China model? This book will explore the implications of the China model in the context of the second global competition and argues that the downturn of the China model and China's global expansion are the two sides of the same coin. The China model is losing its power but not broken. China would be able to become even stronger, if it could reshape the philosophical foundation of the China model. The future of Western hegemony will depend on how the West understands the China model and deals with it. This book addresses these aspects and more.
Will China–U.S. relations come back to the normal track? Does the confrontational approach work for China–US relations? This book argues that it is an unrealistic hope to bring China–US relations back to the so-called normal track because the great power competition will be a new normal of China–US relations and the USA will gain more from strategic competition than cooperation in the long run. This book shows that the strategy of “great power cooperation through competition” is more positive and constructive than the approaches of “peaceful coexist” and “maximum pressure.” This book does not intend to provide policy recommendations for governments to consider, but mainly to explain why the great power competition is inevitable and why it is necessary to continuously work with China in some areas through strategic competition. This book alarms the importance of understanding the nature of the Chinese Communist Party during the great power competition and aims to motivate both sides to revisit their foreign policy practice and come up with a better foreign policy strategy of handling China–US relations.
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
The past two decades have witnessed far-reaching socioeconomic and political changes in Asia, such as the growing intraregional flows of capital, goods, people, and knowledge, the rise of China as the world’s second largest economy, and its increasing influence in Southeast Asia, intensified US–China confrontations in the global arena, and the onslaught of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Focusing on multidimensional interactions (including geopolitical and economic relationships, diaspora engagement, and knowledge exchange) between China and Southeast Asia, this book argues that an interwoven perspective of the political economy, transnational governance, and regional networks serves as an effective analytical framework for deciphering these transformations as well as their global and theoretical implications. Drawing upon a wide range of primary data and engaging with the latest interdisciplinary scholarship on contemporary Asia, this book’s thought-provoking and nuanced analyses will appeal to scholars and students in Chinese and Southeast Asian studies, international political economy, international relationships, ethnic and migration studies, and public governance.
Author : Daniel A. Bell Publisher : Princeton University Press Page : 355 pages File Size : 14,38 MB Release : 2016-08-23 Category : Political Science ISBN : 1400883482
How China's political model could prove to be a viable alternative to Western democracy Westerners tend to divide the political world into "good" democracies and “bad” authoritarian regimes. But the Chinese political model does not fit neatly in either category. Over the past three decades, China has evolved a political system that can best be described as “political meritocracy.” The China Model seeks to understand the ideals and the reality of this unique political system. How do the ideals of political meritocracy set the standard for evaluating political progress (and regress) in China? How can China avoid the disadvantages of political meritocracy? And how can political meritocracy best be combined with democracy? Daniel Bell answers these questions and more. Opening with a critique of “one person, one vote” as a way of choosing top leaders, Bell argues that Chinese-style political meritocracy can help to remedy the key flaws of electoral democracy. He discusses the advantages and pitfalls of political meritocracy, distinguishes between different ways of combining meritocracy and democracy, and argues that China has evolved a model of democratic meritocracy that is morally desirable and politically stable. Bell summarizes and evaluates the “China model”—meritocracy at the top, experimentation in the middle, and democracy at the bottom—and its implications for the rest of the world. A timely and original book that will stir up interest and debate, The China Model looks at a political system that not only has had a long history in China, but could prove to be the most important political development of the twenty-first century.
In the past three decades, China has risen from near collapse to a powerhouse -- upending nearly every convention on the world stage, whether policy or business. China is now the globe’s second largest economy, second largest exporter, a manufacturing machine that has lifted 500 million of its citizens from poverty while producing more than one million US dollar millionaires. Then why do China’s leaders describe the nation’s economic model as “unstable and unsustainable”? Because it is. James McGregor has spent 25 years in China as a businessman, journalist and author. In this, his latest highly readable book, he offers extensive new research that pulls back the curtain on China’s economic power. He describes the much-vaunted “China Model” as one of authoritarian capitalism, a unique system that, in its own way, is terminating itself. It is proving incompatible with global trade and business governance. It is threatening multinationals, which fear losing their business secrets and technology to China’s mammoth state-owned enterprises. It is fielding those SOEs – China’s “national champions” -- into a global order angered by heavily subsidized state capitalism. And it is relying on an outdated investment and export model that’s running out of steam. What has worked in the past, won’t work in the future. The China Model must be radically overhauled if the country hopes to continue its march toward prosperity. The nation must consume more of what it makes. It must learn to innovate. It must unleash private enterprise. And the Communist Party bosses? They must cede their pervasive and smothering hold on economic power to foster the growth, and thus social stability, that they can’t survive without. Government must step back, the state-owned economy must be brought to heel, and opportunity must be freed. During the Tang Dynasty, an official in the imperial court observed: “No ancient wisdom, no followers.” He was lamenting that regime was headed alone into dangerous and uncharted waters without any precedent for guidance. Again today – as McGregor makes clear – this is China’s greatest challenge.
Will China-U.S. relations come back to the normal track? Does the confrontational approach work for China-US relations? This book argues that it is an unrealistic hope to bring China-US relations back to the so-called normal track because the great power competition will be a new normal of China-US relations and the USA will gain more from strategic competition than cooperation in the long run. This book shows that the strategy of "great power cooperation through competition" is more positive and constructive than the approaches of "peaceful coexist" and "maximum pressure." This book does not intend to provide policy recommendations for governments to consider, but mainly to explain why the great power competition is inevitable and why it is necessary to continuously work with China in some areas through strategic competition. This book alarms the importance of understanding the nature of the Chinese Communist Party during the great power competition and aims to motivate both sides to revisit their foreign policy practice and come up with a better foreign policy strategy of handling China-US relations. Jinghao Zhou is Associate Professor of Asian Studies at Hobart and William Smith Colleges in New York, USA. His research focuses on Chinese ideology, politics, religions, and US-China relations. He has five books published which are as follows: Why Is the China Model Losing Its Power? (2020), Chinese vs. Western Perspectives: Understanding Contemporary China (2014), China's Peaceful Rise in a Global Context: A Domestic Aspect of China's Road Map to Democratization (2010), Remaking China's Public Philosophy and Chinese Women's Liberation: The volatile mixing of Confucianism, Marxism, and Feminism (2006), and Remaking China's Public Philosophy for the Twenty-First Century (2003).
A critical look at how the world is responding to China's rise, and what this means for America and the world. China is advancing its own interests with increasing aggression. From its Belt and Road Initiative linking Asia and Europe, to its "Made in China 2025" strategy to dominate high-tech industries, to its significant economic reach into Africa and Latin America, the regime is rapidly expanding its influence around the globe. Many fear that China's economic clout, tech innovations, and military power will allow it to remake the world in its own authoritarian image. But despite all these strengths, a future with China in charge is far from certain. Rich and poor, big and small, countries around the world are recognizing that engaging China produces new strategic vulnerabilities to their independence and competitiveness. How China Loses tells the story of China's struggles to overcome new risks and endure the global backlash against its assertive reach. Combining on-the-ground reportage with incisive analysis, Luke Patey argues that China's predatory economic agenda, headstrong diplomacy, and military expansion undermine its global ambitions to dominate the global economy and world affairs. In travels to Africa, Latin America, East Asia and Europe, his encounters with activists, business managers, diplomats, and thinkers reveal the challenges threatening to ground China's rising power. At a time when views are fixated on the strategic competition between China and the United States, Patey's work shows how the rest of the world will shape the twenty-first century in pushing back against China's overreach and domineering behavior. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries began to confront their political differences and economic and security challenges with China and realize the diversity and possibility for cooperation in the world today.
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.