[PDF] What Do Deviations From Covered Interest Parity And Higher Fx Hedging Costs Mean For Asia eBook

Author : Mr.Gee Hee Hong
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 24,1 MB
Release : 2019-08-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513509004

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Asian countries have high demand for U.S. dollars and are sensitive to U.S. dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis spread in the cross-currency swap market that emerges when there are deviations from covered interest parity (CIP). CIP deviations mean that investors need to pay a premium to borrow U.S. dollars or other currencies on a hedged basis via cross-currency swap markets. These deviations can be explained by regulatory changes since the global financial crisis, which have limited arbitrage opportunities and country-specific factors that contribute to a mismatch in the demand and supply of U.S. dollars. We find that an increase in the basis spread tightens financial conditions in net debtor countries, while easing financial conditions in net creditor countries. The main reason is that net debtor countries are, in general, unable to substitute smoothly to other domestic funding channels. Policies that promote reliable alternative funding sources, such as long-term corporate bond market or stable long-term investors, including a “hedging counterpart of last resort,” can help stabilize financial intermediation when U.S. dollar funding markets come under stress.

Author : Mr.Gee Hee Hong
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 48,5 MB
Release : 2019-08-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513511181

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Asian countries have high demand for U.S. dollars and are sensitive to U.S. dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis spread in the cross-currency swap market that emerges when there are deviations from covered interest parity (CIP). CIP deviations mean that investors need to pay a premium to borrow U.S. dollars or other currencies on a hedged basis via cross-currency swap markets. These deviations can be explained by regulatory changes since the global financial crisis, which have limited arbitrage opportunities and country-specific factors that contribute to a mismatch in the demand and supply of U.S. dollars. We find that an increase in the basis spread tightens financial conditions in net debtor countries, while easing financial conditions in net creditor countries. The main reason is that net debtor countries are, in general, unable to substitute smoothly to other domestic funding channels. Policies that promote reliable alternative funding sources, such as long-term corporate bond market or stable long-term investors, including a “hedging counterpart of last resort,” can help stabilize financial intermediation when U.S. dollar funding markets come under stress.

Author : Claudio E. V. Borio
Publisher :
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 19,11 MB
Release : 2018
Category :
ISBN :

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The failure of covered interest parity (CIP), or, equivalently, the persistence of cross-currency basis, in tranquil markets has posed a puzzle. By analysing the term structure of CIP deviations, we empirically establish that imbalances in the demand for and supply of FX hedges exert first order effects on the level of CIP deviations. Fluctuations in FX hedging demand move forward exchange rates out of line with CIP because, in aggregate, financial institutions charge a premium for provisioning for risks associated with exposures to FX derivatives needed to supply FX hedges. We also find that the elasticity of CIP deviations to changes in FX hedging demand can be explained with proxies for FX collateral risk. Our findings point to a fundamental change in the relationship between prices and quantities in FX derivatives markets on which CIP is predicated, suggesting that the notion of CIP as a no-arbitrage condition may be obsolete.

Author : Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 18,25 MB
Release : 2023-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While off-shore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, on-shore EM CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Moreover, the sensitivity of offshore EM CIP deviations to global risk factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. We find weak evidence of country default risk affecting EM CIP deviations after accounting for global factors.

Author : Zefeng Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 23,44 MB
Release : 2021-01-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513566830

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In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to incorporate these key features and estimates a panel vector autoregression on ten Asian economies to understand the role of the banking sector in transmitting spillovers from the global financial cycle to small open economies. It also evaluates the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and other macroeconomic policies in responding to external financing shocks. External financial shocks affect net external liabilities of banks and the exchange rate, leading to changes in credit supply by banks and investment. For example, a capital outflow shock leads to a deprecation that reduces the net worth and intermediation capacity of banks exposed to foreign currency liabilities. In such cases, the exchange rate acts as shock amplifier and sterilized FXI, often deployed by Asian economies, can help cushion the economy. By contrast, with real shocks, the exchange rate serves as a shock absorber, and any FXI that weakens that function can be costly. We also explore the effectiveness of the monetary policy interest rate, macroprudential policies (MPMs) and capital flow management measures (CFMs).

Author : Mr.Harald Finger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 37,73 MB
Release : 2019-10-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513512331

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This paper looks empirically at some economic effects of volatile exchange rates and financial conditions and examines policy responses for managing such volatility. It also sheds light on some economic costs that stem from volatile capital flows and exchange rates and analyzes how countries deploy their policy toolkits in response. The data-driven analysis should contribute to ongoing reflections about how to manage volatile capital flows and exchange rates both in Asian EMEs and more broadly.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 119 pages
File Size : 34,67 MB
Release : 2020-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513529390

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This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Japan highlights that the rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population has become central to macroeconomic policies and outcomes. The consultation centered on the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s demographics. Mutually reinforcing policies are needed to lift current and expected inflation, stabilize public debt, and raise potential growth. Underlying growth is expected to remain resilient but will be increasingly challenged by slowing external demand and intensifying demographic headwinds. Growth in domestic demand is being eroded by the weaker external environment. Frontloading of private consumption ahead of the October 2019 consumption tax rate increase appears to have been smaller than in 2014.

Author : Robert Danon
Publisher : Kluwer Law International B.V.
Page : 1053 pages
File Size : 33,97 MB
Release : 2023-08-29
Category : Law
ISBN : 9403540354

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It is well known that intercompany financing arrangements have become increasingly subject to scrutiny in contexts of applying transfer pricing and anti-tax avoidance-related rules. With contributions by more than 50 leading global transfer pricing and international tax experts from law firms, multinational enterprises, academia, and tax administrations, this book provides unparalleled insights into the application of the Arm’s Length Principle to different types of financial transactions, application of anti-avoidance rules to various intra-group financial arrangements as well as the business value creation process and the dispute management landscape that underlie intra-group financial transactions. With in-depth analysis of the legislation and market developments that fuel the diverse range of financing options available to market participants – and loaded with practical examples and case studies that cover the legal and economic considerations that arise when analysing intra-group finance – the contributors examine such topics and issues as the following: national anti-abuse rules applicable to financial transactions; tax treaty issues; role of credit ratings and impact of implicit support; loans, cash pooling, financial guarantees; transfer pricing aspects of performance guarantees; ‘mezzanine’ financing; considerations for crypto financing; impact of crises situations such as COVID-19; how treasury operations can be structured in a group and the decision-making process involved; how hedges offset or mitigate risks; how to apply the arm’s length principle to factoring and captive insurance transactions; comparability analysis for various transactions; special considerations for transactions carried out by a permanent establishment; EU state aid and its interaction with transfer pricing rules; dispute prevention and resolution tools under the OECD, UN, and EU frameworks; and developing countries’ perspectives, focusing on Brazil, India, and South Africa. Given the challenges facing taxpayers and tax authorities alike, this book will prove an immeasurably valuable reference guide to support tax practitioners, tax administrations, and tax scholars in developing standards and policies in dealing with intra-group financing issues.

Author : Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 16,89 MB
Release : 2019-01-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484395212

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For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).