[PDF] What Caused The Beveridge Curve To Shift Higher In The United States During The Pandemic eBook

Author : Gene Kindberg-Hanlon
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 42,94 MB
Release : 2024-01-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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The Beveridge curve shifted substantially higher in the United States following the start of the COVID pandemic. In 2022, vacancies reached record highs across all sectors while unemployment fell to pre-pandemic lows. At the same time, the pandemic has resulted in severe labor shortages, and we estimate that the labor force was approximately 2 million below trend at the start of 2023. We exploit state-level data in the United States to find that lower immigration, higher excess mortality due to COVID, and falling older-worker labor force participation were associated with larger upward shifts in the Beveridge curve. We also find that states that had a larger employment concentration in contact-intensive sectors had larger upward shifts in their Beveridge curve. While the effect of sectoral reallocation and rehiring has been shown in theoretical models to lift the Beveridge curve, we show that worker shortages also result in an upward shift in the Beveridge curve if they increase the marginal product of labor. This result holds in a search and matching model with on-the-job search, but does not hold without on-the-job search.

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 431 pages
File Size : 27,99 MB
Release : 2005-04-09
Category : Medical
ISBN : 0309095042

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Public health officials and organizations around the world remain on high alert because of increasing concerns about the prospect of an influenza pandemic, which many experts believe to be inevitable. Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic regions have alarmed experts about the world's ability to prevent or contain a human pandemic. The workshop summary, The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are We Ready? addresses these urgent concerns. The report describes what steps the United States and other countries have taken thus far to prepare for the next outbreak of "killer flu." It also looks at gaps in readiness, including hospitals' inability to absorb a surge of patients and many nations' incapacity to monitor and detect flu outbreaks. The report points to the need for international agreements to share flu vaccine and antiviral stockpiles to ensure that the 88 percent of nations that cannot manufacture or stockpile these products have access to them. It chronicles the toll of the H5N1 strain of avian flu currently circulating among poultry in many parts of Asia, which now accounts for the culling of millions of birds and the death of at least 50 persons. And it compares the costs of preparations with the costs of illness and death that could arise during an outbreak.

Author : Gina Kolata
Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 35,56 MB
Release : 2011-04-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 1429979356

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Veteran journalist Gina Kolata's Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It presents a fascinating look at true story of the world's deadliest disease. In 1918, the Great Flu Epidemic felled the young and healthy virtually overnight. An estimated forty million people died as the epidemic raged. Children were left orphaned and families were devastated. As many American soldiers were killed by the 1918 flu as were killed in battle during World War I. And no area of the globe was safe. Eskimos living in remote outposts in the frozen tundra were sickened and killed by the flu in such numbers that entire villages were wiped out. Scientists have recently rediscovered shards of the flu virus frozen in Alaska and preserved in scraps of tissue in a government warehouse. Gina Kolata, an acclaimed reporter for The New York Times, unravels the mystery of this lethal virus with the high drama of a great adventure story. Delving into the history of the flu and previous epidemics, detailing the science and the latest understanding of this mortal disease, Kolata addresses the prospects for a great epidemic recurring, and, most important, what can be done to prevent it.

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 39,70 MB
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 21,32 MB
Release : 2013-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484392272

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Despite its low unemployment rate, the recent shift in the Japanese Beveridge curve indicates increased labor mismatch. This paper quantifies the age, employment-type (full or part-time), and occupational mismatch in the Japanese labor market following Sahin and others (2013). Between April 2000 and April 2013, the age mismatch has steadily declined while the occupational and employmenttype mismatch has shown a countercyclical pattern, showing a sharp increase during the global financial crisis. Occupational mismatch accounted for approximtely 20-40 percent of the recent rise in the unemployment rate in Japan. The magnitude was comparable to that of the U.K. and the U.S.

Author : Laurence M. Ball
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 14,49 MB
Release : 2011-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1455263389

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This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

Author : Hilary Cooper
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 449 pages
File Size : 21,37 MB
Release : 2021-09-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1009005200

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Reveals the deep roots of the UK's lack of resilience when COVID-19 hit and sets out an ambitious manifesto for change.

Author : United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Publisher :
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 21,22 MB
Release : 2007
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789211091540

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Greater longevity is an indicator of human progress in general. Increased life expectancy and lower fertility rates are changing the population structure worldwide in a major way: the proportion of older persons is rapidly increasing, a process known as population ageing. The process is inevitable and is already advanced in developed countries and progressing quite rapidly in developing ones. The 2007 Survey analyses the implications of population ageing for social and economic development around the world, while recognising that it offers both challenges and opportunities. Among the most pressing issues is that arising from the prospect of a smaller labour force having to support an increasingly larger older population. Paralleling increased longevity are the changes in intergenerational relationships that may affect the provision of care and income security for older persons, particularly in developing countries where family transfers play a major role. At the same time, it is also necessary for societies to fully recognise and better harness the productive and social contributions that older persons can make but are in many instances prevented from making. The Survey argues that the challenges are not insurmountable, but that societies everywhere need to put in place the policies required to confront those challenges effectively and to ensure an adequate standard of living for each of their members, while respecting and promoting the contribution and participation of all.

Author : Richard E. Neustadt
Publisher :
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 24,29 MB
Release : 1978
Category : Medical policy
ISBN :

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In 1976, a small group of soldiers at Fort Dix were infected with a swine flu virus that was deemed similar to the virus responsible for the great 1918-19 world-wide flu pandemic. The U.S. government initiated an unprecedented effort to immunize every American against the disease. While a qualified success in terms of numbers reached-more than 40 million Americans received the vaccine-the disease never reappeared. The program was marked by controversy, delay, administrative troubles, legal complications, unforeseen side effects and a progressive loss of credibility for public health authorities. In the waning days of the flu season, the incoming Secretary of what was then the Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Joseph Califano, asked Richard Neustadt and Harvey Fineberg to examine what happened and to extract lessons to help cope with similar situations in the future.

Author : Carl Patton
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 481 pages
File Size : 36,14 MB
Release : 2015-08-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1317350006

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Updated in its 3rd edition, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning presents quickly applied methods for analyzing and resolving planning and policy issues at state, regional, and urban levels. Divided into two parts, Methods which presents quick methods in nine chapters and is organized around the steps in the policy analysis process, and Cases which presents seven policy cases, ranging in degree of complexity, the text provides readers with the resources they need for effective policy planning and analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methods are systematically combined to address policy dilemmas and urban planning problems. Readers and analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public policy.