[PDF] Twin Crises The Contribution Of Overborrowing To Interdependencies Of Banking And Currency Crises eBook

Author : Tim Ebner
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 67 pages
File Size : 44,74 MB
Release : 2013-02-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3656372144

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Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2009 im Fachbereich VWL - Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Note: 2,3, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster (Institut für Internationale Ökonomie), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The occurrence of twin crises can evoke serious recessions. From 1976 to 2002 there were 38 countries afflicted by at least one twin crisis. McKinnon and Pill (1996, 1997, 1998, 1999) set basic milestones in respect of international overborrowing and drew a linkage to twin crises. Their papers are still increasingly cited by current publications. This paper at first systemizes literature on currency, banking and twin crises and gives a review on several contributions. The second section deals with the third generation model of McKinnon and Pill concerning “The Overborrowing Syndrome”. Their key finding is that loan guarantees may lead via excessive borrowing to a twin crisis. After this, policy conclusions to counteract international overborrowing and a review on the development of theoretical overborrowing papers will complete the second section. In section three it will refer to empirical studies on crises and overborrowing. Section four closes with final remarks.

Author : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 15,66 MB
Release : 1999-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451858930

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The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.

Author : Craig Burnside
Publisher :
Page : 62 pages
File Size : 49,93 MB
Release : 2000
Category : Bank failures
ISBN :

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This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crises in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes twin crises' is government guarantees to domestic banks' foreign creditors. When these guarantees are in place twin crises inevitably occur, but their timing is a multiple equilibrium phenomenon that depends on agents' beliefs. So while self-fulfilling beliefs have an important role to play, twin crises do not happen just anywhere. They happen in countries where there are fundamental problems - problems such as guarantees to the financial sector.

Author : Charles R. Morris
Publisher : Crown Business
Page : 334 pages
File Size : 24,29 MB
Release : 1999
Category : Financial crises
ISBN : 9780812931730

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The world seems awash in financial crises. The Asian crisis of 1998, the near-demise of Long Term Capital Management, and the black hole of Russia are just a few of the most recent. Are they the result of greedy speculators, crony capitalism, or the warp speed of the forces of globalization? Can we send in the repairman and get things fixed through the legal and regulatory systems? Or are other causes at work that may be beyond our control? Money, Greed, and Risk is that rare book which, through adroit analysis of both historical and contemporary events and their leading players, lends new insights into the causes of financial turmoil. Charles Morris: Explores the eternal cycle of financial crises: from brilliant innovation to gross excess and inevitable crash, before investors and institutions catch up. Explains why the American financial system grew from a capital-starved backwater in the nineteenth century to one that plays the leading role in the world today. Examines the technological, economic, demographic, and industrial experiences that caused the financial engine to kick into such high gear in the 1980s and 1990s. Shows how the boom-and-bust cycle in early American history helps illuminate recent events in South Asia and Russia. In the process we become more realistic about what to expect during the nascent stages of capitalism and market development everywhere. Explains that globalization is nothing new. The investment system in the nineteenth century was perhaps even more global than the world today. Looks at contemporary financial geniuses--Michael Milken is a good example--and shows that they didn't invent any financial instruments thatnineteenth-century counterparts like Jay Gould hadn't already thought of. There are a handful of books about finance and the financial markets that are substantive enough to provide intellectual grist for sophisticated investors while also providing intriguing explanations of contemporary events that will be of interest to a general audience. Money, Greed, and Risk is one of them. Finance is the plumbing that makes capitalism run. And, like a good plumbing system, finance is invisible when working well. But just as a broken pipe can be a disaster, so too when the financial system breaks and crises and crashes occur. We look to understand the causes and Charles Morris provides unusual insights that bring our understanding to a new level.