[PDF] Towards Improved Forecasting Of Volcanic Eruptions eBook

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 135 pages
File Size : 27,61 MB
Release : 2017-07-24
Category : Science
ISBN : 0309454158

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Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

Author : R. B. Trombley
Publisher : iUniverse
Page : 140 pages
File Size : 46,27 MB
Release : 2006
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9780595412600

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Forecasting the time, place, and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the major goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. Until recently, people living in a volcano's shadow had little help anticipating an eruption. A major volcanic event might strike with no warning at all. In the past 300 years, volcanic eruptions, most of them unexpected, have killed more than 250,000 people. In 2000, experts estimated that 500 million people were living in areas at risk from catastrophic volcanic eruptions. This book describes the strides that have made in eruption forecasting in recent years and explores why accurately predicting volcanic events remains difficult. Based on the methodologies in this book, Eruption Pro 10.6, to our knowledge, it is the only software programme of its type anywhere in the world. Eruption Pro 10.6 performs analysis on current available volcano eruption data from both historical and current available eruption data, near real-time measurement data including, seismic, deformation, thermal, frequency of eruption analysis, solar & lunar influences, crater lake temperature (if applicable), COSPEC, & statistical procedures. The newest version also accounts for, albeit very small, contributions due to lunar and solar influences.

Author : Angelo Paone
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
Page : 117 pages
File Size : 46,23 MB
Release : 2020-04-22
Category : Science
ISBN : 1789840295

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The chapters presented in this International Volcanological Special Issue consider the characteristic features of a single volcano and/or a number of volcanoes worldwide (Jos and Biu Plateau volcanic provinces, Nigeria; Kachchh Rift Zone, Gujarat, India; Guamsan Caldera, Cheongsong, Korea; Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Napoli, Italy) in terms of future volcanic activity. The technical methods used are wide, innovative, as well as classic and reflect the knowledge presented in each chapter. The last chapter, however, deals with a new conceptual and methodological approach for the evaluation of volcanic risk. All these volcanoes (except Somma-Vesuvius volcano) are poorly studied so they deserve more attention, which is the goal of this volcanological book. Further studies are welcome to deepen the knowledge of each of the volcanoes presented.

Author : Heidy M. Mader
Publisher : Geological Society of London
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 42,95 MB
Release : 2006
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781862392083

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Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

Author : Joachim Gottsmann
Publisher : Springer
Page : 313 pages
File Size : 50,62 MB
Release : 2018-12-18
Category : Nature
ISBN : 331958412X

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This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Author : Melody Gwyneth Runge
Publisher :
Page : 291 pages
File Size : 37,35 MB
Release : 2015
Category : Volcanic activity prediction
ISBN :

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Forecasts of future volcanic activity are frequently required for volcanic fields as their relatively low eruption rates and fertile soils draw human populations to live in close proximity to these potentially hazardous regions. Harrat Rahat in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one of these volcanic fields, situated immediately south east of the city of Al-Madinah (population 1.5 million). Recent eruptions (641 AD, 1256 AD) and a seismic swarm (1999 AD) motivated this research to model past and potential volcanic activity within Harrat Rahat. The complexity of volcanic systems, the difficulty of establishing precise event records, and ignorance of the specific subsurface processes driving volcanic eruptions render deterministic approaches currently, and potentially never, unattainable. Thus, the majority of existing approaches to hazard forecasting are probabilistic, in which patterns are fitted to previous activity and then extrapolated into the future. To forecast activity in volcanic systems, some simplification is required to attempt to model their behaviour. These include the assumptions of independent spatial and temporal behaviour, and that each eruption centre is a separate eruption in both time and space. However, the choice of simplification approach has the potential to render incorrect, rather than just uncertain, results. Novel quantitative methods were developed to address three major complexities noted within volcanic fields: (1) multiple-vent eruptions, (2) hidden eruptive centres, and (3) the relationship of volcanism to geological, geophysical, and geographical ancillary data. Sensitivity analyses were then completed for two major subjective decisions common during volcanic field hazard forecasting: (1) the definition of a volcanic field boundary, and (2) selection of a pattern approximation method. Application of these new techniques to Harrat Rahat resulted in a conservative forecast for future eruption activity. This forecast incorporates the complex, multi-dimensional eruptions noted within Harrat Rahat by collapsing the 968 identified vents into 752 events and is based on an anisotropic kernel spatial smoothing method with an expanding volcanic field boundary. However, substantial uncertainties are attached to this forecast due predominantly to insufficient age data for the field. Ancillary data analysis also revealed structural controls on the volcanism across the Arabian Shield suggesting that future work should be focussed both on age data collection and geophysical methods to reveal crustal structure. This work also raises questions concerning a large number of existing practices in volcanic hazard forecasting, especially with regards to objective decision-making and assumption validation. An open, defensible procedure is suggested as a first step towards a consolidated process for the development of hazard forecasts.

Author : Roberto Scarpa
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 846 pages
File Size : 50,49 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 3642800874

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By the year 2000, the number of people at risk from volcanic hazards is likely to increase to around half a billion. Since 1980, significant advances have been made in volcano monitoring, the data from which provides the sole scientific basis for eruption prediction. Here, internationally renowned and highly experienced specialists provide 25 comprehensive articles covering a wide range of related topics: monitoring techniques and data analysis; modelling of monitoring data and eruptive phenomena; volcanic hazards and risk assessment; and volcanic emergency management. Selected case histories of recent volcanic disasters, such as Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, demonstrate that effective communication - between scientists, civil authorities, the media and the population at risk - is essential to reducing the danger.

Author : Vyacheslav M Zobin
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 501 pages
File Size : 28,53 MB
Release : 2011-12-08
Category : Science
ISBN : 0444563768

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Volcanic seismology represents the main, and often the only, tool to forecast volcanic eruptions and to monitor the eruption process. This book describes the main types of seismic signals at volcanoes, their nature and spatial and temporal distributions at different stages of eruptive activity. Following from the success of the first edition, published in 2003, the second edition consists of 19 chapters including significant revision and five new chapters. Organized into four sections, the book begins with an introduction to the history and topic of volcanic seismology, discussing the theoretical and experimental models that were developed for the study of the origin of volcanic earthquakes. The second section is devoted to the study of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, giving the theoretical basis for their occurrence and swarms as well as case stories of volcano-tectonic activity associated with the eruptions at basaltic, andesitic, and dacitic volcanoes. There were 40 cases of volcanic eruptions at 20 volcanoes that occurred all over the world from 1910 to 2005, which are discussed. General regularities of volcano-tectonic earthquake swarms, their participation in the eruptive process, their source properties, and the hazard of strong volcano-tectonic earthquakes are also described. The third section describes the theoretical basis for the occurrence of eruption earthquakes together with the description of volcanic tremor, the seismic signals associated with pyroclastic flows, rockfalls and lahars, and volcanic explosions, long-period and very-long-period seismic signals at volcanoes, micro-earthquake swarms, and acoustic events. The final section discuss the mitigation of volcanic hazard and include the methodology of seismic monitoring of volcanic activity, the examples of forecasting of volcanic eruptions by seismic methods, and the description of seismic activity in the regions of dormant volcanoes. This book will be essential for students and practitioners of volcanic seismology to understand the essential elements of volcanic eruptions. Provides a comprehensive overview of seismic signals at different stages of volcano eruption. Discusses dozens of case histories from around the world to provide real-world applications. Illustrations accompany detailed descriptions of volcano eruptions alongside the theories involved.