[PDF] Tipping Points And Early Warning Signals With Applications To Geophysical Data eBook

Author : Friedemann Wenzel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 382 pages
File Size : 10,3 MB
Release : 2013-08-13
Category : Science
ISBN : 3642122337

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The past years have seen new technologies that could be utilized for early warning and real-time loss estimation. They include self-organizing sensor networks, new satellite imagery with high resolution, multi-sensor observational capacities, and crowd sourcing. From this and improved physical models, data processing and communication methodologies a significant step towards better early warning technologies has been achieved by research. At the same time, early warning systems became part of the disaster management practice for instance in Japan and Indonesia. This book marks the important point where: Research activities continue to improve early warning Experience with applications is expanding At this critical point in development of early warning for geological disasters it is timely to provide a volume that documents the state-of-the-art, provides an overview on recent developments and serves as knowledge resource for researcher and practitioners.

Author : Sami A. Houry
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 16,54 MB
Release : 2018
Category :
ISBN :

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Complex systems range from business entities, the human brain, to the climate. These systems have tipping points at which a small perturbation can trigger a critical transition leading to an emergence at an alternate stable state. Although there are differences in the nature of different complex systems, their behaviors exhibit universal characteristics as they near a tipping point. Among such characteristics are the common generic early warning signals that precede critical transitions. The signals include: critical slowing down in which the rate of recovery from perturbations decreases over time; an increase in the variance and skewness of the state variable; an increase in the autocorrelation of the state variable; flickering between different states; and an increase in spatial correlations. The presence of such signals has significant management implications, as the identification of signals prior to the tipping points could allow management to identify intervention points. A review of literature did not identify any applications for the signals in managing undergraduate program student withdrawal at distance universities, hence the research gap. This research assessed the signals through an intensive case study of undergraduate program student withdrawal at a Canadian Distance University by comparing the incidences of the signals among inactive students to the incidences of the signals among graduates. Findings showed support for the signal on the rise in flickering, represented in the increase in the student's non-pass rates prior to withdrawing from a program; moderate support for the signal of critical slowing down, reflected in the longer time a student spends in a course; and moderate support for the signals on increase in autocorrelation, skewness and variance in the grade variable. The research also extended knowledge by investigating whether the emergence of a program withdrawal status is self-similar at the program level and the course level. Findings moderately supported self-similarity as a potential signal. In conclusion, the research into the signals and self-similarity suggests that the signals could be potentially utilized as a predictive management tool. These findings represent the beginnings of future research into the creation of program withdrawal Complexity based models and the possible identification of intervention points.

Author : Ann Henderson-Sellers
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 678 pages
File Size : 16,25 MB
Release : 2012-01-31
Category : Science
ISBN : 012386917X

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"The study of climate today seems to be dominated by global warming, but these predictions of climatic models must be placed in their geological, paleo-climatic, and astronomical context to create a complete picture of the Earth's future climate. The Future of the World's Climate presents that perspective with data and projections that have emerged from more technologically advanced and accurate climate modeling"--Publisher's website.

Author : Prasenjit Chatterjee
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 339 pages
File Size : 30,84 MB
Release : 2023-01-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 1000642356

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Machine Learning (ML) is a sub field of artificial intelligence that uses soft computing and algorithms to enable computers to learn on their own and identify patterns in observed data, build models that explain the world, and predict things without having explicit pre-programmed rules and models. This book discusses various applications of ML in engineering fields and the use of ML algorithms in solving challenging engineering problems ranging from biomedical, transport, supply chain and logistics, to manufacturing and industrial. Through numerous case studies, it will assist researchers and practitioners in selecting the correct options and strategies for managing organizational tasks.

Author : Timothy O'Riordan
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 376 pages
File Size : 12,55 MB
Release : 2013-08-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0197265537

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Tipping points are zones or thresholds of profound changes in natural or social conditions with very considerable and largely unforecastable consequences. Tipping points may be dangerous for societies and economies, especially if the prevailing governing arrangements are not designed either to anticipate them or adapt to their arrival. Tipping points can also be transformational of cultures and behaviours so that societies can learn to adapt and to alter their outlooks and mores in favour of accommodating to more sustainable ways of living. This volume examines scientific, economic and social analyses of tipping points, and the spiritual and creative approaches to identifying and anticipating them. The authors focus on climate change, ice melt, tropical forest drying and alterations in oceanic and atmospheric circulations. They also look closely at various aspects of human use of the planet, especially food production, and at the loss of biodiversity, where alterations to natural cycles may be creating convulsive couplings of tipping points. They survey the various institutional aspects of politics, economics, culture and religion to see why such dangers persist.

Author : Martin Solan
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 381 pages
File Size : 41,34 MB
Release : 2016
Category : Nature
ISBN : 0198718837

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A multitude of direct and indirect human influences have significantly altered the environmental conditions, composition, and diversity of marine communities. However, understanding and predicting the combined impacts of single and multiple stressors is particularly challenging because observed ecological feedbacks are underpinned by a number of physiological and behavioural responses that reflect stressor type, severity, and timing. Furthermore, integration between the traditional domains of physiology and ecology tends to be fragmented and focused towards the effects of a specific stressor or set of circumstances. This novel volume summarises the latest research in the physiological and ecological responses of marine species to a comprehensive range of marine stressors, including chemical and noise pollution, ocean acidification, hypoxia, UV radiation, thermal and salinity stress before providing a perspective on future outcomes for some of the most pressing environmental issues facing society today. Stressors in the Marine Environment synthesises the combined expertise of a range of international researchers, providing a truly interdisciplinary and accessible summary of the field. It is essential reading for graduate students as well as professional researchers in environmental physiology, ecology, marine biology, conservation biology, and marine resource management. It will also be of particular relevance and use to the regulatory agencies and authorities tasked with managing the marine environment, including social scientists and environmental economists.

Author : Jürgen Runge
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 412 pages
File Size : 27,21 MB
Release : 2021-11-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 1000431150

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This book celebrates the relaunch of the African Pollen Database, presents state-of-the-art of modern and ancient pollen data from sub-Saharan Africa, and promotes Open Access science. Pollen grains are powerful tools for the study of past vegetation dynamics because they preserve well within sedimentary deposits and have a huge diversity in ornamentation that allows different taxa to be determined. The reconstruction of past vegetation from the examination of ancient pollen records thus can be used to characterize the nature of past landscapes (e.g. abundance of forests vs. grasslands), provide insights into changes in biodiversity, and gain empirical evidence of vegetation response to climatic change and human activity. In this, the 35th Volume of "Palaeoecology of Africa", we bring together new data and extensive synthetic reviews to provide novel insights into the relationships between human evolution, human activity, climate change and vegetation dynamics during the Quaternary, the last 2.6 million years. Current and ongoing climate and land-use change is exerting pressure on modern vegetation formations and threatening the livelihoods and wellbeing of many peoples in Africa. In this book the focus is on the Quaternary because it is during this geological period that the modern vegetation formations developed into their current configurations against a backdrop of high magnitude global climate change (glacial-interglacial cycles), human evolution, and a growing human land-use footprint. In this book the latest information is presented and collated from around the African continent to parameterize past vegetation states, identify the drivers of vegetation change, and assess the vegetation resilience to change. To achieve this research from two broad themes are covered: (i) the present is the key to the past (i.e. studies which improve our understanding of modern environments so that we can better interpret evidence from the past), and (ii) the past is the key to the future (i.e. studies which unlock information on how and why vegetation changed in the past so one can better anticipate trajectories of future change). This Open Access book will provide a strong foundation for future research exploring past ecological, environmental and climatic change within Africa and the surrounding islands. The book is organized regionally (covering western, eastern, central, and southern Africa) and it contains specialized articles focused on particular topics (such as modern pollen-vegetation relationships and fire as a driver of vegetation change), as well as regional and pan-African syntheses drawing together decades of research to assess key scientific questions (including the role of climate in driving vegetation change and the role of vegetation change in human evolution). These articles will be useful to students and teachers from high school to the highest level of university who are interested in the origins and dynamics of vegetation in Africa. Furthermore, it is also meant to provide societally relevant information that can act as an inspiration for the development of sustainable management practices for the future.