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Impulse response analysis requires the imposition of restrictions on the estimated system in order to identify a shock. Short-run restrictions such that monetary policy does not contemporaneously affect real Gross Domestic Production have been often used. Many economic models, however, imply long-run relations among economic variables (or long-run restrictions such that monetary policy does not affect output in the long period) rather than short-run restrictions. Therefore, empirical results based on long-run restrictions may be more consistent with economic theory than those based on short-run restrictions.
In the first chapter the performance of two of the long memory tests, the Modified Rescaled Range Test and Geweke and Porter-Hudak Test for persistence in small samples is examined using Monte-Carlo methods. Some possible candidates for persistence in volatility are Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH), Markov Regime Switching ARCH, and long memory. The long memory series are simulated through a Semi-Markov process with Pareto waiting times and lognormal realizations. The persistence in volatility arising from transition waiting probabilities for a Markov Regime Switching process, and from the tail index of the waiting time distribution for the Semi-Markov process is established through simulations with different parameter values. There is evidence that persistence in a regime switching process is closely linked to state transition probabilities and waiting times. The second chapter re-examines what structural vector autoregressive modeling of real exchange rates with differenced variables tells us about interesting macroeconomic questions. Using quarterly data from G-7 countries in the post Bretton-Woods period, the evidence suggests that shock identification is not an easy process in a Blanchard and Quah decomposition framework with long run restrictions. Confidence bands do not find significant impulse responses and the signs of the estimated impulse responses are very sensitive to the lag selection criteria adopted. Possible cointegration effects seem to be the main driving force behind the unsatisfactory performance of the structural approach. Chapter three extends the structural vector autoregression model by incorporating cointegration effects. Using the method of Warne (1993), in a simple four-variable vector autoregression (VAR) characterized by cointegration, the response of real exchange rates to various economic shocks are investigated with economically plausible long-run restrictions. The long-run relations and driving stochastic trends of the real exchange rate between United States and other G-7 countries are analyzed in a structural cointegrated framework. Productivity shocks depreciate the real exchange rate and the perverse sign effect of supply shock is corrected for most countries in the sample. More significant impulse responses are observed through confidence intervals. The structural vector error correction decompositions are also found to be not robust to estimating with different lag lengths owing to additional cointegration effects.
Long-run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have been used for this purpose. Three main approaches have been used, exogenously generated changes in the unconditional residual covariance matrix, changing volatility modelled by a Markov switching mechanism and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Using changes in volatility for checking long-run identifying restrictions in structural VAR analysis is illustrated by reconsidering models for identifying fundamental components of stock prices.
This bibliography lists the most important works published in economics in 1993. Renowned for its international coverage and rigorous selection procedures, the IBSS provides researchers and librarians with the most comprehensive and scholarly bibliographic service available in the social sciences. The IBSS is compiled by the British Library of Political and Economic Science at the London School of Economics, one of the world's leading social science institutions. Published annually, the IBSS is available in four subject areas: anthropology, economics, political science and sociology.
In a structural vector-error correction (VEC) model, it is possible to decompose the shocks into those with permanent and transitory effects on the levels of the variables. Pagan and Pesaran derive the restrictions which the permanent-transitory decomposition of the shocks imposes on the structural VEC model. This paper shows that these restrictions are equivalent to a set of restrictions that are applied in the methods of Gonzalo and Ng and King et al. (KPSW). Using this result, it is shown that the Pagan and Pesaran method can be used to recover the structural shocks with permanent effects identically to those from the Gonzalo and Ng and KPSW methods. In the former case, this is illustrated in the context of Lettau and Ludvigson's consumption model and in the latter case in KPSW's six variable model. There are also two other methods for which the Pagan and Pesaran approach can deliver identical permanent shocks which are also discussed.