[PDF] The Influence Of Commodity Speculation On Commodity Price Development eBook

Author : Nicolas Schreiber
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 69 pages
File Size : 20,34 MB
Release : 2016-07-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3668261016

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Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2014 im Fachbereich BWL - Bank, Börse, Versicherung, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Commodity prices have been rising significantly since the early 2000s with price growth reaching its fastest pace between 2006 and 2008. While nearly all commodities were hit by the aforementioned price spikes, price spikes where particularly pronounced for mineral commodities. For the most part of recent research two different approaches are applied to measure the impact of speculation on price development. The first one examines if there is any change in commodity price development due to the aforementioned increased financialization of commodity markets, whereas the second one compares the behavior of commodity prices with and without an existing futures market. This thesis combines both approaches and tests the hypotheses that either the first-time introduction of derivatives or the introductions of regulatory governmental acts that facilitate speculative index investment in commodities have significant effects on commodity price development by the example of copper traded on US-based exchanges. For this purpose, relevant copper price characteristics will be analyzed before and after possibly speculation-conducive events (i.e. the introduction of copper futures trading and two selected acts) for the period from 1971 to 2010. Furthermore, following Tang and Xiong (2012), this thesis examines if the introduction of governmental acts of the aforementioned type induces an increased market integration of non-energy commodity markets. This is of particular interest as market integration can at times induce increased volatility spillovers between the respective markets (Tang & Xiong, 2012). The first part of this work gives a short overview of the technical background necessary to understand the relationship between commodity prices and speculation. The second part provides a general review of related literature and research on the relationship between commodity prices and speculation. The third part focuses on the methodology of the empirical analysis. The fourth part of this work presents the results and is followed by the conclusion in part five.

Author : Tobias Thürer
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 33,53 MB
Release : 2016-02-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3832538763

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Since the mid 2000s, an increasing financialization of commodity futures markets is taking place. This has fueled an ongoing discussion about the effect of financial investments on the development of commodity prices. Against this background, the trading activities of financial speculators also come to the fore. There is the concern that such speculators can cause irrational overshootings of agricultural commodity prices, e.g. in the event of global production shocks. In such an event the decrease of total supply induces a price surge menacing food security in developing countries. Yet, the question emerges whether speculation aggravates this price increase, eventually inducing a price bubble. The relevance of this concern is reinforced by the fact that due to climate change an increased frequency and severity of global agricultural production shortfalls is at stake. If speculation evokes an additional threat to food security in the event of a production shock, the political agenda should not be confined to focus solely on the adaptation to climate change. Instead, it is then also necessary to address speculative activities on agricultural commodity markets. This book scrutinises whether speculative bubbles can be identified in the event of severe global production shocks. For this, a framework for tracing the transmission of the futures price's development on the spot market is developed. Using annual data from 1979-2012 for maize it is analysed whether production shock related price bubbles occurred.

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 18,45 MB
Release : 2011-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226386899

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Author : Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher : Springer
Page : 620 pages
File Size : 43,69 MB
Release : 2016-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3319282018

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This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Author : Mikidadu Mohammed
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 215 pages
File Size : 37,36 MB
Release : 2021-11-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1000485129

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The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.

Author : Scott H. Irwin
Publisher : CABI
Page : 279 pages
File Size : 19,93 MB
Release : 2023-04-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1800622082

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Commodity futures prices exploded in 2007-2008 and concerns about a new type of speculative participant in commodity futures markets began to emerge. The main argument was that unprecedented buying pressure from new "commodity index" investors created massive bubbles that resulted in prices substantially exceeding fundamental value. At the time, it was not uncommon to link concerns about speculation and high prices to world hunger, food crises, and civil unrest. Naturally, this outcry resulted in numerous regulatory proposals to restrict speculation in commodity futures markets. This book presents important research on the impact of index investment on commodity futures prices that the authors conducted over the last fifteen years. The eleven articles presented in the book follow the timeline of our involvement in the world-wide debate about index funds as it evolved after 2007. We also include an introductory chapter, new author forewords for each article chapter, and a lessons learned chapter to round out the book. Policy-makers, researchers, and market participants will find the book not only functions as useful documentation of the debate; but, also as a natural starting point when high commodity prices inevitably create the next speculation backlash.

Author : Blake C. Clayton
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 215 pages
File Size : 43,1 MB
Release : 2016
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1107042518

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This book provides a clear-eyed analysis of questions at the intersection of commodity markets, natural resource economics, and public policy.

Author : S. Ghosh
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 24,34 MB
Release : 1987
Category : Commodity control
ISBN :

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After briefly reviewing the problems caused by commodity price instability, the authors develop a mathematical model for commodity markets. The implications of this model for intervention and the welfare effects are then considered. A fully developed model of the world copper market is usedto investigate alternative buffer stock intervention rules in order to assess the scope and limitations of such stabilization strategies.

Author : David Höhl
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 33,94 MB
Release : 2018-08-26
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 3668782504

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Seminar paper from the year 2018 in the subject Philosophy - Philosophy of the 20th century, grade: 1,5, Harvard University, language: English, abstract: Which consequences do the speculation on agricultural commodities have on food prices? Is it morally wrong to speculate on agricultural commodities? Are policy makers ethically obligated to regulate the speculation of agricultural commodities? The following paper will face these issues. First of all, I will define the greatest happiness principle by Jeremy Bentham, agricultural commodities, commodity futures and futures markets as well as speculation. Afterwards, I will analyze the consequences of speculation on agricultural commodities for all concerned parties. Doing this, I will examine the effects of the speculation on commodity trading firms, banks, investors and the price development of agricultural commodities. On the basis of the results of my examination, I will apply the greatest happiness principle. Given this analysis, I will state my advice for policy makers.