[PDF] The Effects Of Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty On The Level And Composition Of Uk Manufacturing Investment eBook

Author : Michael D. Bordo
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 545 pages
File Size : 15,33 MB
Release : 2013-06-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226066959

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Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Author : Michael Joyce
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 18,34 MB
Release : 1998
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Uncertainty about future inflation is often claimed to be one of the most important costs of inflation, since it distorts the workings of the price system and leads to allocational inefficiencies. This paper analyses U.K. inflation between 1950 and 1994 using the ARCH methodology, which enables inflation uncertainty to be modelled directly. It examines two questions: first, what is the precise form of the relationship between shocks to the level of inflation and future inflation uncertainty? Second, what is the relationship between inflation uncertainty and the level of inflation? The paper finds that future inflation uncertainty is much more sensitive to "bad" news (unexpected increases in inflation) than "good" news. In fact, uncertainty appears almost unaffected when inflation outturns are lower than expected. It also finds that inflation uncertainty is indeed higher when inflation is high though the precise form of this relationship is difficult to estimate.

Author : Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 48,60 MB
Release : 2010
Category :
ISBN :

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The aim of this paper is to analyse the dynamics relationships between inflation, output growth, and real and nominal uncertainty using the VARFIMA-BEKK MGARCH model of inflation and output growth and quarterly data for the UK covering the 1957:Q2-2006:Q4 period. The analysis is also done for the three sub-periods determined by considering the structural changes such as the Great Moderation in the series of the UK. Two findings are obtained. First, the evidence obtained from the full period supports a number of important conclusions, one of which is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty, another one being strong evidence regarding the positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Taking this into account, it is possible to put forward that an essential determinant of economic growth is uncertainty about the inflation rate. The last finding for this period is that output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the inflation and output growth rate. Second, the evidence found from the sub-periods is that there are no linkages between inflation, output growth and their volatility.

Author : Ciaran Driver
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 390 pages
File Size : 38,34 MB
Release : 2005-08-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1134641796

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Investment - in both facilities and know-how - is essential for growth. Economists try to understand the forces that determine investment, but investment behaviour is unruly; often the term animal spirits is used to explain the resulting volatility. This volume presents studies to explain international investment behaviour and assess its impact on growth and jobs. The authors also examine policy measures to reverse the climate of low investment that has characterised recent decades. The contributors examine how well standard models of investment work, the role of finance constraints, the effect of risk and uncertainty, the impact of alternative forms of corporate governance, the forces shaping the adoption of new technology, the impact of foreign direct investment, the effect of investment on the NAIRU and the causal structure of investment and growth. Editors introductions to the different sections of the book provide comprehensive overviews of the main theories of investment, the impact of investment on growth and employment and examine the main questions raised for policy makers.

Author : Vivek Ghosal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 26,95 MB
Release : 2015-01-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498356176

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We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.

Author : Ivan Yotzov
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,33 MB
Release : 2023
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We introduce a new measure of own-price inflation uncertainty using firm-level data from a large and representative survey of UK businesses. Inflation uncertainty increased significantly from the start of 2021 and reached a peak in the second half of 2022, even as a similar measure of sales uncertainty declined. We also find large cross-sectional differences in inflation uncertainty, with uncertainty particularly elevated for smaller firms and those in the goods sector. Finally, we show that firms which are more uncertain about their own price expectations experience higher forecast errors 12 months later. These findings suggest that studying inflation uncertainty at the firm level may be an important new dimension to understanding firm performance.