[PDF] The Determinants Of Currency Crises eBook

Author : B. Rother
Publisher : Springer
Page : 198 pages
File Size : 48,86 MB
Release : 2009-04-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0230233643

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This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, a rigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.

Author : Carlo Pizzinelli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 47,2 MB
Release : 2021-11-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513599860

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To complement the early warning signals literature, we study the determinants of banking and currency crises for small states and currency boards. Building on the crisis dataset by Laeven and Valencia (2020), we estimate a binominal logit model to identify the determinants of crises, and as a case study, we apply our models to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Our findings largely confirm past studies’ results that both external and domestic fundamentals matter in predicting crisis likelihood, but we find that small states and fixed exchange rate regimes are more sensitive to these fundamentals, compared to larger economies. Our empirical results also suggest that for currency board economies, keeping a high level of the foreign reserve cover—the “backing ratio” defined as official foreign reserves as a share of central bank demand liabilities—is critical to reduce the likelihood of both banking and currency crises. The backing ratio is particularly important during years of global economic downturn.

Author : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 31,86 MB
Release : 1998-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451952422

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This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Author : Paul Krugman
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 34,73 MB
Release : 1995-02-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262611091

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This new collection revolves around Krugman's work on international monetary economics from the late 1970s to the present in an effort to make sense of a turbulent period that "involved one surprise after another, most of them unpleasant." Paul Krugman's first collection of essays, Rethinking International Trade, mounted a spirited assault on established trade theory and proposed an alternative approach to account for increasing returns and imperfect competition. Less theoretical and more embedded in real-world experience, this new collection revolves around Krugman's work on international monetary economics from the late 1970s to the present in an effort to make sense of a turbulent period that "involved one surprise after another, most of them unpleasant." The eleven essays cover such key areas as the role of exchange rates in balance-of-payments adjustment policy, the role of speculation in the functioning of exchange rate regimes, Third World debt, and the construction of an international monetary system. They are unified by the same basic methodology and style the construction of a small theoretical model in order to simplify or clarify a puzzling or difficult world monetary problem.

Author : Sebastian Edwards
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 782 pages
File Size : 39,21 MB
Release : 2002-11-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226184944

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Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.