[PDF] The Asian Crisis And Stock Market Co Movements eBook

Author : Graciela Kaminsky
Publisher :
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 24,37 MB
Release : 2004
Category :
ISBN :

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Movements in stock prices in East Asia during the crisis in 1997-98 were triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. Having the highest impact was news about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies. But some changes seem to have been driven by herd instincts in the market itself, including overreactions to bad news.In the chaotic financial environment of East Asia in 1997-98, daily changes in stock prices of as much as 10 percent became commonplace. Kaminsky and Schmukler analyze what type of news moved the market in those days of extreme market jitters.They find that movements are triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. News about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies have the most weight.Some of those large changes in stock prices, however, cannot be explained by any apparent substantial news but seem to be driven by herd instincts in the market itself.On average, the one-day market rallies are sustained while the largest one-day losses are recovered - suggesting that investors overreact to bad news.This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand financial markets and financial crises. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under research project quot;Capital Market Crises and Informationquot; (RPO 682-26). Sergio Schmukler may be contacted at [email protected].

Author : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 50,44 MB
Release : 1999
Category : Aktiekurser
ISBN :

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Movements in stock prices in East Asia during the crisis in 1997-98 were triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. Having the highest impact was news about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies. But some changes seem to have been driven by herd instincts in the market itself, including overreactions to bad news. In the chaotic financial environment of East Asia in 1997-98, daily changes in stock prices of as much as 10 percent became commonplace. Kaminsky and Schmukler analyze what type of news moved the market in those days of extreme market jitters. They find that movements are triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. News about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies have the most weight. Some of those large changes in stock prices, however, cannot be explained by any apparent substantial news but seem to be driven by herd instincts in the market itself. On average, the one-day market rallies are sustained while the largest one-day losses are recovered - suggesting that investors overreact to bad news.

Author : Kristin Forbes
Publisher :
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 31,62 MB
Release : 1999
Category : Contagion (Social psychology)
ISBN :

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This paper examines stock market co-movements. It begins with a discussion of several conceptual issues involved in measuring these movements and how to test for contagion. Standard tests examine if cross-market correlation in stock market returns increase during a period of crisis. The measure of cross-market correlations central to this standard analysis, however, is biased. The unadjusted correlation coefficient is conditional on market movements over the time period under consideration, so that during a period of turmoil when stock market volatility increases, standard estimates of cross-market correlations will be biased upward. It is straightforward to adjust the correlation coefficient to correct for this bias. The remainder of the paper applies these concepts to test for stock market contagion during the 1997 East Asian crises, the 1994 Mexican peso collapse, and the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. In each of these cases, tests based on the unadjusted correlation coefficients find evidence of contagion in several countries, while tests based on the adjusted coefficients find virtually no contagion. This suggests that high market co-movements during these periods were a continuation of strong cross-market linkages. In other words, during these three crises there was no contagion, only interdependence.

Author : Stefanie Kleimeier
Publisher :
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 42,56 MB
Release : 2003
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This paper presents a framework based on correlation analysis to test for contagion during the episode of financial turmoil surrounding the Asian crisis. In particular, we calculate conditional and unconditional correlation coefficients for 15 countries. We advocate the use of synchronous instead of synchronized data to correctly measure stock market comovements. Considering the two different phases of the Asian crisis, reveals that synchronized data lead to an over-identification of contagion for the early Thailand crisis phase but an under-identification of contagion during the late Hong Kong crisis phase. When using synchronous data, we find little evidence of a significant change in the transmission mechanisms from Thailand to any of the other country in our sample as most financial shocks are thus transmitted through non-crisis-contingent channels. Contrary to the Thailand finding, we find evidence of contagion from the Hong Kong stock market to most of the other stock markets in our sample. This is in contrast with the findings of Forbes and Rigobon (2002) and suggests that most shocks are transmitted through crisis-contingent channels. Overall, our findings should caution researchers and practitioners alike when drawing conclusions based on synchronized data.

Author : Nancy Huyghebaert
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 47,61 MB
Release : 2013
Category :
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This paper examines the integration and causality of interdependencies among seven major East Asian stock exchanges before, during, and after the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. For this purpose, we use daily stock market data from July 1, 1992 to June 30, 2003 in local currency as well as US dollar terms. The data reveal that the relationships among East Asian stock markets are time varying. While stock market interactions are limited before the Asian financial crisis, we find that Hong Kong and Singapore respond significantly to shocks in most other East Asian markets, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, during this crisis. After the crisis, shocks in Hong Kong and Singapore largely affect other East Asian stock markets, except for those in Mainland China. Finally, considering the role of the USA shows that it strongly influences stock returns in East Asia - except for Mainland China - in all periods, while the reverse does not hold true.

Author : Ms.Kalpana Kochhar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 38,35 MB
Release : 1998-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451935544

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This paper reviews macroeconomic developments during the first year of the crisis in east Asia and draws some preliminary policy lessons. The crisis is rooted in the interaction of large capital inflows and weak private and public sector governance. At the same time, macroeconomic adjustment in these countries has resulted in some surprising outcomes, including severe economic contractions, low inflation, and rapid external adjustment. The lessons for crisis resolution include the importance of tight monetary policy early on for exchange rate stabilization, flexible fiscal policy, and comprehensive structural reform. Crises are avoided by prudent macroeconomic policies, diligent bank supervision, transparent data dissemination, strong governance, and forward-looking policymaking, even in good times.

Author : Alicia García-Herrero
Publisher :
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 28,30 MB
Release : 2008
Category : Currency crises
ISBN :

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In this paper we investigate whether cross-sectional information from local equity markets contained information on devaluation expectations during the Asian crisis. We concentrate on the information content of equity prices as these markets were in general the largest and most liquid at the time and, thus, presumably the best carriers of information. Using an event-study approach for the period leading up to each of the devaluations which occurred during the Asian crisis (namely those of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand), we compare returns in the equity prices of exporting and non-exporting firms. This is based on the assumption that the expectation of a devaluation should help the stock of exporting firms outperform those of non-exporting firms. Overall we do find some evidence supporting this hypothesis, although at different degrees depending on the country. Our second finding is that local equity market prices, as reflected in the different patterns seen for exporters and non-exporters, did to at least to some extent price in the possibility that the Thai devaluation would be followed by other countries in the region.--

Author : Alison Harwood
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
Page : 430 pages
File Size : 28,70 MB
Release : 2010-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780815716204

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This volume brings together market practitioners, policymakers, development specialists, and academics from developed and emerging market countries to examine the underlying causes of the Asian financial crisis and ways of preventing future crises in emerging markets. Contents of the volume include: •"The Asian Crisis: Causes and Consequences" by Richard Cooper, Harvard University •"A Closer Look at Equity Flows to Emerging Markets" by Michael Barth, Capital Markets Development Department, The World Bank, and Konstantinos Tsatsaronis, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements •"Corporate Governance and the Treatment of Minority Shareholders," by Kenneth Scott, Stanford Law School •"Foreign Investment in Asia" by Jarrod Wilcox, PanAgora Asset Management •"The Future of Emerging Markets Investing" by Michael Adler, Columbia Graduate School of Business •"Lessons of the Asian Crisis for Latin America" by Sebastian Edwards, University of California at Los Angeles •"Global Capital Markets: What Do They Mean?" by Ian Giddy, Stern School of Business, New York University Copublished with the World Bank