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"This Policy Analysis previews the case for more decisive US economic engagement of Pakistan and suggests that a US-Pakistan FTA could reinforce existing reforms and push the envelope in economic areas where Pakistan (and South Asia more generally) have lagged. In keeping with the Institute's extensive research agenda on prospective US FTAs, we present a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of a US-Pakistan FTA for the signatory countries, for regional integration, and for the world trading system."--Preface.
Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. Would a free trade agreement (FTA) with the country be beneficial both economically and politically to the United States? What kind of benefit could Indonesia expect? This book presents a case for improved trade relations between Indonesia and the United States and recommends advancing exploratory talks toward a US-Indonesia FTA. The authors present a detailed study of the stakes involved in the various areas of the proposed negotiation and estimate the FTA's potential for trade creation, trade diversion, and welfare under different scenarios.
Author : Peter A. Petri Publisher : Peterson Institute Page : 177 pages File Size : 50,24 MB Release : 2012-06-15 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0881326658
"While global trade negotiations remain stalled, two tracks of trade negotiations in the Asia-Pacific--the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and a parallel Asian track--could generate momentum for renewed liberalization and provide pathways to region-wide free trade. We estimate that world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the TPP track, by $766 billion if both tracks are successful, and by $1.9 trillion if the tracks ultimately combine to yield region-wide free trade. The tracks are competitive initially but their strategic implications appear to be constructive: they generate incentives for enlargement and mutual progress and, over time, for region-wide consolidation. The "21st century" template of the TPP would be especially productive because it is likely to offer opportunities for the leading sectors of both emerging-market and advanced economies. An ambitious TPP template would generate greater gains from integration than less demanding alternatives, but it will be harder to sell to China and other key regional partners as the TPP evolves toward wider agreements. The crucial importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, but without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future"--Provided by publisher.
While South Asia’s economic reform initiatives of the last two decades were often born in crisis, this alone does not account for their occurrence. This book looks at the processes and institutional arrangements behind these reforms, and analyses what lessons can be learnt about how South Asia can improve its policy efficiency. The book develops ideas about how to overcome the political restraints to reform by drawing on recent theories of political economy and policy learning. It tests these ideas against authoritative case studies of actual reform initiatives in South Asia, which illustrate processes and institutional arrangements that have helped South Asian governments to sustain reform efforts, even in the absence of a strong political base. This offers valuable lessons for the global economy as it moves into a phase of rebalancing, with the structural adjustments that this will require. The book goes on to identify weaknesses that could be addressed by South Asian national governments and regional forums. It is an important contribution to studies on South Asian Politics and International Political Economy
In the wake of the Great Recession of 2008–09, economists feared that protectionist policies might sweep the world economy, echoing the wave of tariff escalations during the Great Depression of the 1930s. To some surprise, officials were more restrained and largely avoided traditional forms of protection (tariffs and quotas). As a result, economists underestimated the incidence of new protectionism because policymakers increasingly turned to more opaque behind-the-border nontariff barriers (NTBs). Using a combination of statistical analysis and case studies, the authors show that local content requirements (LCRs), a form of NTB, have become increasingly popular. How much was global trade actually reduced on account of LCRs? A conservative estimate might be $93 billion. Case studies featured cover the healthcare sector in Brazil, wind turbines in Canada, the automobile industry in China, solar cells and modules in India, oil and gas in Nigeria, and "Buy American" restrictions on government procurement.
In mid-2009 Simeon Djankov, who had dealt with a variety of economic and financial crises as chief economist for finance and private sector development at the World Bank, was suddenly thrust into the job of finance minister of his native Bulgaria. For nearly four years in that post, he attended more than 40 meetings of European finance ministers and had a front row seat at the intense discussions and struggles to overcome the economic and financial crisis that threatened to unravel the historic undertaking of an economically integrated Europe. In this personal account, Djankov details his odyssey on the front lines, observing Europe's fitful efforts to contain crises in Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, and France. He tells the inside story of how the European Central Bank assumed responsibility for the crisis, pledging to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro area. This candid book recounts the disagreements over fiscal austerity, monetary policy, and banking supervision, while focusing on the personalities who promoted progress—and those who opposed it. He also tells the dramatic story of the events that led to his own resignation as finance minister in 2013 over the policies he was pursuing to spare Bulgaria from getting sucked into the crisis.
Author : Adam S. Posen Publisher : Peterson Institute for International Economics Page : 362 pages File Size : 22,76 MB Release : 2013 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0881326747
The Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 was devastating for the region, but policymakers at least believed that they gained a great deal of knowledge on how to prevent, mitigate, and resolve crises in the future. Fifteen years later, the Asian developing countries escaped the worst effects of the global crisis of 2008–10, in part because they had learned the right lessons from their own experience. In this important study, the Asian Development Bank and Peterson Institute for International Economics join forces to illuminate the con¬trast between Asia’s performance during the more recent crisis with its performance during its own crisis and the gap between what the United States and European Union leaders recommended to Asia then and what they have practiced on themselves since then. The overriding lessons emerging from the essays in this volume are that countries need to prepare for crises as if they cannot be prevented, make room for stabili¬zation policies and deploy them rapidly when crises hit, and address the need for self-insurance globally if they can, or regionally if they must. Contributors include Simon Johnson, William R. Cline, Joseph E. Gagnon, Stephan Haggard, Masahiro Kawai, Peter Morgan, Donghyun Park, Arief Ramayandi, Kwanho Shin, Edwin M. Truman, Shahin Vallee, Changyong Rhee, and Lea Sumulong