[PDF] Strategy For The Evaluation And Use Of Probability Models For Volcanic Disruptive Scenarios eBook

Author : F. V. Perry
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 33,20 MB
Release : 2005
Category :
ISBN :

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Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision framework is an important way to focus research in the most critical areas as well as providing an integrated approach to a range of complex processes. Uncertainty in both event probability and consequences can formally be accounted for within a decision framework and therefore is explicitly communicated to decision makers. Such an approach also tends to open new questions about volcanic systems and their interactions with humans and infrastructure, thereby driving new basic research.

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 135 pages
File Size : 15,51 MB
Release : 2017-07-24
Category : Science
ISBN : 0309454158

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Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

Author : Andrea Bevilacqua
Publisher : Springer
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 18,50 MB
Release : 2016-05-03
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 8876425772

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This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

Author : Rosa Maria Sobradelo Pérez
Publisher :
Page : 153 pages
File Size : 27,91 MB
Release : 2013
Category :
ISBN :

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Disasters are large intractable problems that test the ability of communities and nations to effectively protect their populations and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. The randomness of impacts and problems, and uniqueness of incidents demand dynamic, real-time, effective and cost efficient solutions. For this reason, we need quantitative risk-based methods for decision-making under uncertainty to be developed and applied to volcanology. Volcanic activity is a natural phenomenon that can turn into a disaster under certain conditions. They are natural processes that cannot be controlled, but their potentially disastrous effects can be mitigated. Volcanoes have implicit a natural hazard which can threaten human lives and properties of those communities living near by. The eruptions of volcanoes considered "dormant" or "inactive" have been liable for major disasters in the past. The volcanic hazard from volcanoes with a long term recurrence tends to be ignored, especially when little or no historical data exists. This is the case of Teide - Pico Viejo Stratovolcanoes in the island of Tenerife. Due to the limited scientific observability of the interior of a volcano, there is a lot of uncertainty in forecasting volcanic eruptions. During a volcanic crisis decision-makers need to take important life and death decisions under strict time and uncertainty constrains. They are afraid of getting a decision wrong, causing unnecessary economic disruption and public anxiety and distress. There is an increasing recognition of the need of combining mathematical models, together with statistical and operations research methods to address disaster management. The interdisciplinary science of mathematics applied to the study of volcanology and volcanic hazard is an important approach which will help understand volcanic processes by integrating keen volcanological insights with sound statistical modeling and artful application of computational power. The aim of this thesis is to work with volcanologists to try and address, with the appropriate statistical methods, those questions they raise, and have volcanologists collaborate with statisticians to learn about the advantages in the application of statistical techniques to the interpretation of volcanic data. Here, we propose and analyze different statistical methodologies to interpret volcanic data and assess volcanic hazard. The statistical technique will depend on the nature of the data and the type of problem we want to address. The models will be used to analyze and interpret the historical and geological volcanic data for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (TPV) and the Canary Islands archipelago. The first statistical method is an Elicitation of Expert Judgment using the so-called Classical Model to assign probabilities of occurrence to each possible eruptive scenario that can be outlined from the eruption history of the volcano, and our knowledge of other analogous volcanoes. The aim was to assess the long-term volcanic hazard of TPV, following an unrest episode in 2004 which created discrepancies among scientists regarding the nature of the unrest and the level of hazard. The second statistical method is a Bayesian Inference approach to compute the long-term probability for each volcanic scenario. The idea to use this method came after seeing the limitations on the Classical Model. The third method is a Non-parametric one-way unbalanced ANOVA using the Kruskal - Wallis test. This study was suggested following the publication for the first time of the World Collapse Caldera Database (WCCD) by the Group of Volcanology of Barcelona. The fourth statistical methodology NHGPP (Non-homogeneous generalized Pareto-Poisson process) uses extreme value theory to study eruptive time series combining geological and historical records. This methodology is applied to the Canary Islands eruptive time series to study volcanic recurrence.

Author : Joachim Gottsmann
Publisher : Springer
Page : 313 pages
File Size : 38,60 MB
Release : 2018-12-18
Category : Nature
ISBN : 331958412X

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This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Author : Heidy M. Mader
Publisher : Geological Society of London
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 44,98 MB
Release : 2006
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781862392083

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Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.