[PDF] Stochastic Modeling And Uncertainty Assessment For Watershed Water Quality Management eBook

Author : Yi Zheng
Publisher :
Page : 430 pages
File Size : 29,47 MB
Release : 2007
Category :
ISBN :

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Complex watershed water quality models have been increasingly used to support Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) development. However, systematic approaches for addressing the significant simulation uncertainty are lacking. For TMDLs supported by complex watershed models, defining the margin of safety (MOS) component through a rigorous uncertainty analysis remains a significant challenge. This study aimed to develop (1) a systematic approach of uncertainty analysis for complex watershed water quality models in the watershed management context; and (2) a framework for defining the MOS with an explicit consideration of uncertainty and degree of protection. A global sensitivity analysis technique was first applied to select critical model parameters. A framework for sources of uncertainty and their interactions was built. Based on this framework, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was initially evaluated as a potential approach for conducting stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis for complex watershed models. The limitations of GLUE became evident, which led to the development of a new Bayesian approach, Management Objectives Constrained Analysis of Uncertainty (MOCAU). The concept Compliance of Confidence (CC) was then introduced to bridge the gap between modeling uncertainty and MOS. An optimization model was also developed for cost-minimized TMDLs. This study used WARMF as an example of a complex watershed model and constructed a synthetic watershed for developing and testing methodologies. The methodologies were also implemented to study the diazinon TMDL in the Newport Bay watershed (southern California). This research contributes to the theory of stochastic watershed water quality modeling, as well as to the practices of managing watershed water quality.

Author : M.B. Beck
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 382 pages
File Size : 16,9 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 3642820549

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Since the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis began its study of water quality modeling and management in 1977, it has been interested in the relations between uncertainty and the problems of model calibration and prediction. The work has focused on the theme of modeling poorly defined environmental systems, a principal topic of the effort devoted to environmental quality control and management. Accounting for the effects of uncertainty was also of central concern to our two case studies of lake eutrophication management, one dealing with Lake Balaton in Hungary and the other with several Austrian lake systems. Thus, in November 1979 we held a meeting at Laxenburg to discuss recent method ological developments in addressing problems associated with uncertainty and forecasting of water quality. This book is based on the proceedings of that meeting. The last few years have seen an increase in awareness of the issue of uncertainty in water quality and ecological modeling. This book is relevant not only to contemporary issues but also to those of the future. A lack of field data will not always be the dominant problem for water quality modeling and management; more sophisticated measuring techniques and more comprehensive monitoring networks will come to be more widely applied. Rather, the important problems of the future are much more likely to emerge from the enhanced facility of data processing and to concern the meaningful interpretation, assimilation., and use of the information thus obtained.

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 423 pages
File Size : 32,83 MB
Release : 2020-12-04
Category : Science
ISBN : 0309679702

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New York City's municipal water supply system provides about 1 billion gallons of drinking water a day to over 8.5 million people in New York City and about 1 million people living in nearby Westchester, Putnam, Ulster, and Orange counties. The combined water supply system includes 19 reservoirs and three controlled lakes with a total storage capacity of approximately 580 billion gallons. The city's Watershed Protection Program is intended to maintain and enhance the high quality of these surface water sources. Review of the New York City Watershed Protection Program assesses the efficacy and future of New York City's watershed management activities. The report identifies program areas that may require future change or action, including continued efforts to address turbidity and responding to changes in reservoir water quality as a result of climate change.

Author : J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 32,81 MB
Release : 2021-07-14
Category : Science
ISBN : 2889710378

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Dr. Andres Alcolea is employed by Geo-Energie Suisse AG and is the funder and CEO of HydroGeoModels. All other Topic Editors declare no competing interests with regards to the Research Topic subject

Author : Keith W. Hipel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 370 pages
File Size : 42,56 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9401110727

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Objectives The current global environmental crisis has reinforced the need for developing flexible mathematical models to obtain a better understanding of environmental problems so that effective remedial action can be taken. Because natural phenomena occurring in hydrology and environmental engineering usually behave in random and probabilistic fashions, stochastic and statistical models have major roles to play in the protection and restoration of our natural environment. Consequently, the main objective of this edited volume is to present some of the most up-to-date and promising approaches to stochastic and statistical modelling, especially with respect to groundwater and surface water applications. Contents As shown in the Table of Contents, the book is subdivided into the following main parts: GENERAL ISSUES PART I PART II GROUNDWATER PART III SURFACE WATER PART IV STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION PART V MOMENT ANALYSIS PART VI OTHER TOPICS Part I raises some thought-provoking issues about probabilistic modelling of hydro logical and environmental systems. The first two papers in Part I are, in fact, keynote papers delivered at an international environmetrics conference held at the University of Waterloo in June, 1993, in honour of Professor T. E. Unny. In his keynote pa per, Dr. S. J. Burges of the University of Washington places into perspective the historical and future roles of stochastic modelling in hydrology and environmental engineering. Additionally, Dr. Burges stresses the need for developing a sound scien tific basis for the field of hydrology. Professor P. E.

Author : Ahmad Mohamad Salah
Publisher :
Page : 178 pages
File Size : 31,13 MB
Release : 2009
Category : Electronic dissertations
ISBN :

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Decision makers can utilize this output to better manage watersheds by understanding and incorporating the spatio-temporal uncertainty for the land-water interface.