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Statistical Seismology aims to bridge the gap between physics-based and statistics-based models. This volume provides a combination of reviews, methodological studies, and applications, which point to promising efforts in this field. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers alike, who are interested in using stochastic modeling for probing the nature of earthquake phenomena, as well as an essential ingredient for earthquake forecasting.
This special issue emerged following the 2013 8th International Statistical Seismology (StatSei8) workshop in Beijing. The articles within have been collected to report on exciting new research in statistical seismology methods and applications; it contains a collection of the newest methods, techniques and results related to statistical analysis of earthquake occurrence and earthquake probability forecasting. The articles within ultimately help to define future research directions in the field. Especially, the rapid development of observation technologies has brought geophysical research into the big-data era. This includes not only non-seismicity geophysical data, such as GPS observation on surface displacement, InSAR observation of the co-seismic deformation, ionospheric observations, etc., but also extended seismological data including slow earthquakes, tremor, and VLF earthquakes. The subject of statistical seismology bridges the gap between physical and statistical models. Many significant achievements have been accomplished during the last several decades, including formulation of conditional intensity models for quantifying seismicity rates, earthquake probability forecasts, and theories related to rigorous testing of forecast models.
204 Pure app!. geophys. , P. Reasenberg demonstrated that in Cascadia earthquakes are four times more likely to be foreshocks than in California. Many speakers emphasized the regional differences in all earthquake parameters, and it was generally understood that basic models of the earthquake occurrence must be modified for regional application. The idea that the focal mechanisms of foreshocks may differ from that of background activity was advocated by Y. Chen and identified by M. Ohtake as possibly the thus far most neglected property of foreshocks, in efforts to identify them. S. Matsumura proposed that focal mechanism patterns of small earthquakes may differ character istically near locked fault segments into which fault creep is advancing. Considerable discussion was devoted to the status of the seismic gap hypothesis because M. Wyss argued that the occurrence of the M 7. 9, 1986, Andreanof Islands earthquake was a confirmation of Reid's rebound theory of earthquakes and thus of the time predictable version of the gap hypothesis, whereas Y. Kagan believed he could negate this view by presenting a list of nine earthquake pairs with M> 7. 4, moment centroid separation of less than 100 km, and time difference less than about 60% of the time he estimated it would take plate motions to restore the slip of the first event.
The study of earthquakes is a multidisciplinary field, an amalgam of geodynamics, mathematics, engineering and more. The overriding commonality between them all is the presence of natural randomness. Stochastic studies (probability, stochastic processes and statistics) can be of different types, for example, the black box approach (one state), the white box approach (multi-state), the simulation of different aspects, and so on. This book has the advantage of bringing together a group of international authors, known for their earthquake-specific approaches, to cover a wide array of these myriad aspects. A variety of topics are presented, including statistical nonparametric and parametric methods, a multi-state system approach, earthquake simulators, post-seismic activity models, time series Markov models with regression, scaling properties and multifractal approaches, selfcorrecting models, the linked stress release model, Markovian arrival models, Poisson-based detection techniques, change point detection techniques on seismicity models, and, finally, semi-Markov models for earthquake forecasting.
Introduction to Petroleum Seismology, second edition (SEG Investigations in Geophysics Series No. 12) provides the theoretical and practical foundation for tackling present and future challenges of petroleum seismology especially those related to seismic survey designs, seismic data acquisition, seismic and EM modeling, seismic imaging, microseismicity, and reservoir characterization and monitoring. All of the chapters from the first edition have been improved and/or expanded. In addition, twelve new chapters have been added. These new chapters expand topics which were only alluded to in the first edition: sparsity representation, sparsity and nonlinear optimization, near-simultaneous multiple-shooting acquisition and processing, nonuniform wavefield sampling, automated modeling, elastic-electromagnetic mathematical equivalences, and microseismicity in the context of hydraulic fracturing. Another major modification in this edition is that each chapter contains analytical problems as well as computational problems. These problems include MatLab codes, which may help readers improve their understanding of and intuition about these materials. The comprehensiveness of this book makes it a suitable text for undergraduate and graduate courses that target geophysicists and engineers as well as a guide and reference work for researchers and professionals in academia and in the petroleum industry.
The book offers a comprehensive physical theory of the earthquakes. The presentation level is rather mathematical, but thorough physical explanations are provided everywhere.We do not know where and when and how great an earthquake occurs. The seismic events have a statistical character. Statistical Seismology is discussed extensively in this book, centered on the famous Gutenberg-Richter, Omori and Bath statistical laws. The earthquakes may be correlated, foreshocks may herald a main shock, aftershocks may follow a main shock. The pattern of such correlations, their extension in time and magnitude are discussed in this book. The earthquakes are produced by forces acting for a short time in a localized focal region placed inside the Earth. These forces give rise to elastic deformations and elastic waves, which arrive at Earth' surface as earthquakes. The nature of these forces and their effects are discussed in this book. Any earthquake begins by a feeble tremor, the so-called P and S seismic waves, followed by a large, main shock, which looks like a wall with a long tail. This book explains why it is so. We cannot predict the occurrence of the earthquakes. But we can know something about them. For instance, there exist seismographs, a sort of pendulums, which record the ground displacement. There exist agencies which tell us the earthquake magnitude, its energy, location, fault slip, by reading the seismograms. We may wish to get such information by ourselves, almost in real time, knowing the seismograph recordings, to be independent of the seismological agencies. This book teaches us how to do that. The book describes the accumulation of the seismic energy in the focal region, its release, the shape and strength of the ground displacement. It is shown that the seismic faults may give rise to rather complicated tensorial forces, which account both for the static deformations of the Earth's surface and for the seismic waves produced in an earthquake. A model of energy accumulation in the earthquake focus is formulated and used to derive the statistical Gutenberg-Richter laws. These laws are used to analize the statistics of the seismic events in Vrancea, Romania, as an example. A special emphasis is given to the short-term seismic activity. The book introduces the point tensorial force of the seismic faults and employs it to present both the static deformation of the Earth's crust in epicentral regions and the seismic waves and the main shock which appear on any typical seismogram. This later point is the solution of the so-called Lamb seismological problem. The book describes the determination of the seismic-moment tensor, earthquake magnitude, the volume of the focal region, the duration of the seismic activity in the focus, the fault orientation and the fault slip from measurements of the seismic waves at the Earth's surface. This is the solution of the inverse seismological problem. A special point is a qualitative estimation of these parameters which can be practised by everyone in real time. The book presents the vibrations of the Earth viewed as a solid sphere and the vibrations of an elastic half-space. The static deformations of the elastic half-space under the action of point forces are also included. Finally, earthquake correlations, Bath's law and earthquake entropy are discussed. The book is an original monograph of Seismology, intended for the use of the students, researchers and the public who wish to become familiar with the physics and mathematics of the earthquakes. It provides the understanding of the earthquakes and specific knowledge we may have of them.