[PDF] Shifting The Beveridge Curve eBook

Author : Ms.Elva Bova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 40,25 MB
Release : 2016-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484326466

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This paper explores conditions and policies that could affect the matching between labor demand and supply. We identify shifts in the Beveridge curves for 12 OECD countries between 2000Q1 and 2013Q4 using three complementary methodologies and analyze the short-run determinants of these shifts by means of limited-dependent variable models. We find that labor force growth as well as employment protection legislation reduce the likelihood of an outward shift in the Beveridge curve,. Our findings also show that the matching process is more difficult the higher the share of employees with intermediate levels of education in the labor force and when long-term unemployment is more pronounced. Policies which could facilitate labor market matching include active labor market policies, such as incentives for start-up and job sharing programs. Passive labor market policies, such as unemployment benefits, as well as labor taxation render matching signficantly more difficult.

Author : Ms.Elva Bova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 30,42 MB
Release : 2016-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 148433695X

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This paper explores conditions and policies that could affect the matching between labor demand and supply. We identify shifts in the Beveridge curves for 12 OECD countries between 2000Q1 and 2013Q4 using three complementary methodologies and analyze the short-run determinants of these shifts by means of limited-dependent variable models. We find that labor force growth as well as employment protection legislation reduce the likelihood of an outward shift in the Beveridge curve,. Our findings also show that the matching process is more difficult the higher the share of employees with intermediate levels of education in the labor force and when long-term unemployment is more pronounced. Policies which could facilitate labor market matching include active labor market policies, such as incentives for start-up and job sharing programs. Passive labor market policies, such as unemployment benefits, as well as labor taxation render matching signficantly more difficult.

Author : Gadi Barlevy
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 13,66 MB
Release : 2023
Category :
ISBN :

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We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. We argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

Author : Gene Kindberg-Hanlon
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 18,81 MB
Release : 2024-01-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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The Beveridge curve shifted substantially higher in the United States following the start of the COVID pandemic. In 2022, vacancies reached record highs across all sectors while unemployment fell to pre-pandemic lows. At the same time, the pandemic has resulted in severe labor shortages, and we estimate that the labor force was approximately 2 million below trend at the start of 2023. We exploit state-level data in the United States to find that lower immigration, higher excess mortality due to COVID, and falling older-worker labor force participation were associated with larger upward shifts in the Beveridge curve. We also find that states that had a larger employment concentration in contact-intensive sectors had larger upward shifts in their Beveridge curve. While the effect of sectoral reallocation and rehiring has been shown in theoretical models to lift the Beveridge curve, we show that worker shortages also result in an upward shift in the Beveridge curve if they increase the marginal product of labor. This result holds in a search and matching model with on-the-job search, but does not hold without on-the-job search.

Author : Thomas Lubik
Publisher :
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 37,34 MB
Release : 2013
Category :
ISBN :

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One of the most striking aspect of the Great Recession in the United States is the persistently high level of unemployment despite an uptick in economic activity and an increased willingness by firms to hire. This has stimulated a debate on mismatch in the labor market. The argument is that despite the high unemployment rate the effective pool of job seekers is considerably smaller due to adverse effects of long-term unemployment, high unemployment benefits or structural change. Despite high vacancy postings, firms are therefore unable to hire desired workers. I study this issue from an aggregate perspective by deriving the Beveridge curve from a discrete-time search and matching model of the labor market driven by a variety of shocks. I first establish that the observed pattern in the data can only be described in the context of the model by the interaction of a cyclical decline in productivity and a decline in match efficiency. I then estimate the model using Bayesian methods on unemployment and vacancy data before the onset of the Great Recession. The posterior estimates indicate that the recent behavior of the Beveridge curve is most likely explained by a structural decline in match efficiency.

Author : Peter A. Diamond
Publisher :
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 16,9 MB
Release : 2014
Category :
ISBN :

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This note puts the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.

Author : Aysegul Sahin
Publisher :
Page : 79 pages
File Size : 34,5 MB
Release : 2012
Category : Economics
ISBN : 9781457838200

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We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies, JOLTS and HWOL, a new database covering the universe of online U.S. job advertisements. Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most 1/3 of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate, whereas geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. The share of the rise in unemployment explained by occupational mismatch is increasing in the education level.

Author : William H. Beveridge
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 442 pages
File Size : 49,19 MB
Release : 2014-11-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1317569784

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Beveridge defined full employment as a state where there are slightly more vacant jobs than there are available workers, or not more than 3% of the total workforce. This book discusses how this goal might be achieved, beginning with the thesis that because individual employers are not capable of creating full employment, it must be the responsibility of the state. Beveridge claimed that the upward pressure on wages, due to the increased bargaining strength of labour, would be eased by rising productivity, and kept in check by a system of wage arbitration. The cooperation of workers would be secured by the common interest in the ideal of full employment. Alternative measures for achieving full employment included Keynesian-style fiscal regulation, direct control of manpower, and state control of the means of production. The impetus behind Beveridge's thinking was social justice and the creation of an ideal new society after the war. The book was written in the context of an economy which would have to transfer from wartime direction to peace time. It was then updated in 1960, following a decade where the average unemployment rate in Britain was in fact nearly 1.5%.

Author : Robert G. Valletta
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 19,15 MB
Release : 2007
Category :
ISBN :

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The Beveridge curve depicts the empirical relationship between job vacancies and unemployment, which in turn reflects the underlying efficiency of the job matching process. Previous analyses of the Beveridge curve suggested deterioration in match efficiency during the 1970s and early 1980s, followed by improved match efficiency beginning in the late 1980s. This paper combines aggregate and regional data on job vacancies and unemployment to estimate the U.S. aggregate and regional Beveridge curves, focusing on the period 1976-2005. Using new data on job vacancies from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the help-wanted advertising series that formed the basis of past work are modified to form synthetic job vacancy series at the national and regional level. The results suggest that a decline in the dispersion of employment growth across geographic areas contributed to a pronounced inward shift in the Beveridge curve since the late 1980s, reversing the earlier pattern identified by Abraham (1987) and reinforcing findings of favorable labor market trends in the 1990s (e.g., Katz and Krueger 1999).

Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 30,3 MB
Release : 2013-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484392272

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Despite its low unemployment rate, the recent shift in the Japanese Beveridge curve indicates increased labor mismatch. This paper quantifies the age, employment-type (full or part-time), and occupational mismatch in the Japanese labor market following Sahin and others (2013). Between April 2000 and April 2013, the age mismatch has steadily declined while the occupational and employmenttype mismatch has shown a countercyclical pattern, showing a sharp increase during the global financial crisis. Occupational mismatch accounted for approximtely 20-40 percent of the recent rise in the unemployment rate in Japan. The magnitude was comparable to that of the U.K. and the U.S.