[PDF] Recovering Risk Aversion From Options eBook

Author : Jens Carsten Jackwerth
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 41,60 MB
Release : 2000
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ISBN :

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A relationship exists between aggregate risk-neutral and subjective probability distributions and risk aversion functions. We empirically derive risk aversion functions implied by option prices and realized returns on the Samp;P500 index simultaneously. These risk aversion functions dramatically change shapes around the 1987 crash: Precrash, they are positive and decreasing in wealth and largely consistent with standard assumptions made in economic theory. Postcrash, they are partially negative and partially increasing and irreconcilable with those assumptions. Mispricing in the option market is the most likely cause. Simulated trading strategies exploiting this mispricing shows excess returns even after accounting for the possibility of further crashes, transaction costs, and hedges against the downside risk.

Author : Robert R. Bliss
Publisher :
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 19,45 MB
Release : 2005
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Cross-sections of option prices embed the risk-neutral probability densities functions (PDFs) for the future values of the underlying asset. Theory suggests that risk-neutral PDFs differ from market expectations due to risk premia. Using a utility function to adjust the risk-neutral PDF to produce subjective PDFs, we can obtain measures of the risk aversion implied in option prices. Using FTSE 100 and Samp;P 500 options, and both power and exponential utility functions, we show that subjective PDFs accurately forecast the distribution of realizations, while risk-neutral PDFs do not. The estimated coefficients of relative risk aversion are all reasonable. The relative risk aversion estimates are remarkably consistent across utility functions and across markets for given horizons. The degree of relative risk aversion declines with the forecast horizon and is lower during periods of high market volatility.

Author : Julien Hugonnier
Publisher :
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 10,41 MB
Release : 2008
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In the standard real options approach to investment under uncertainty, agents formulate optimal policies under the assumptions of risk neutrality or complete financial markets. Although these assumptions are crucial to the implications of the approach, they are not particularly relevant to most real-world environments where agents face incomplete markets and are exposed to undiversifiable risks. In this paper we extend the real options approach to incorporate risk aversion for a general class of utility functions. We show that risk aversion provides an incentive for the investor to delay investment and leads to a significant erosion in project values.

Author : Flavio Nardi
Publisher :
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 45,8 MB
Release : 2018
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ISBN :

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In this paper I provide empirical evidence that index options implied higher moments can predict the index returns and Sharpe ratio. Specifically, I present a method to recover option implied subjective moments of the S &P500 index under the assumption of no arbitrage and logarithmic utility. Using index options prices and return data, I test the logarithmic utility assumption and obtain risk aversion estimates not statistically different from one at investment horizons of three to nine months. Under logarithmic utility, I show that the recovered subjective variance has forecasting power controlling for past realized variance. Interestingly, the risk neutral variance is larger than the subjective variance over the entire sample, an empirical fact that quantifies the implied variance premium for a log utility investor. Lastly, I also find that the forward looking Sharpe ratio implied by option prices has forecasting power; this finding can be adopted as a risk--adjusted market timing indicator to improve the return performance of either a passive indexing or a diversified portfolio investment strategy. For example, as a long term investor would rebalance their portfolio periodically to optimize or maintain their asset allocation targets (see for example, cite{ang2014asset}), they could use the option implied Sharpe ratio as a ``gauge'' of the overall market { it price level}. As such, they could take advantage of periods where there is a particularly high expected Sharpe ratio on the market to buy more of the market index when it is at lower valuation levels. Thus, this gauge serves as a reinforcing mechanism to buy low and sell high for periodic portfolio rebalancing.

Author : Joachim Klement
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 38,4 MB
Release : 2018-05-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1944960473

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If risk aversion and willingness to take on risk are driven by emotions and we as humans are bad at correctly identifying them, the finance profession has a serious challenge at hand—how to reliably identify the individual risk profile of a retail investor or high-net-worth individual. In this series of CFA Institute Research Foundation briefs, we have asked academics and practitioners to summarize the current state of knowledge about risk profiling in different key areas.