[PDF] Real Options Ambiguity Risk And Insurance eBook

Author : A. Bensoussan
Publisher : IOS Press
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 38,12 MB
Release : 2013-05-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 161499238X

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Financial engineering has become the focus of widespread media attention as a result of the worldwide financial crisis of recent years. This book is the second in a series dealing with financial engineering from Ajou University in Korea. The main objective of the series is to disseminate recent developments and important issues in financial engineering to graduate students and researchers, and to provide surveys or pedagogical exposition of important published papers in a broad perspective, as well as analyses of important financial news concerning financial engineering research, practices or regulations. Real Options, Ambiguity, Risk and Insurance, comprises 12 chapters and is divided into three parts. In Part I, five chapters deal with real options analysis, which addresses the issue of investment decisions in complex, innovative or risky projects. Part II presents three chapters on ambiguity. The notion of ambiguity is one of the major breakthroughs in the expected utility theory; ambiguity arises as uncertainties cannot be precisely described in the probability space. Part III consists of four chapters devoted to risk and insurance, and covers mutual insurance for non-traded risks, downside risk management, and credit risk in fixed income markets. This volume will be useful to both graduate students and researchers in understanding relatively new areas in economics and finance, as well as challenging aspects of mathematics.

Author : David Roubaud
Publisher :
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 46,46 MB
Release : 2011
Category :
ISBN :

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The need to elaborate innovative methods to analyze risk and uncertainty has become increasingly obvious over the last decades, especially due the growing perception of the multiplicity of social and economical issues characterized by the weight of uncertainty (natural disasters, ecological risk, financial crises...).This thesis is at the crossroad between decision theory under uncertainty and the irreversible investment theory (real options). Consequently, the main goal of this thesis is three-fold: 1. First, it contributes to the dynamic stream of literature in economics and finance that models the impact of ambiguity that individuals may often face and/or perceive when contemplating irreversible choices.2. Next, this thesis emphasizes that even with the plethora of decision models already dealing with uncertainty, elaborating sound axiomatic foundations largely remains an open question. This leads us to recommending the use of non linear models (such as multiple-priors, Choquet expected utility, robust control, smooth ambiguity), which in turn raises many challenging theoretical and practical obstacles. We explore original ways of addressing some of these issues and suggest the construction of ambiguous stochastic processes in a Choquet expected utility framework (that are called Choquet-Brownian motions): ambiguity preferences are thereby directly embedded into the trajectory of some random variables that may drive a decision, such as the expected cash flows of an investment project or its exit value.3. Finally, this thesis also aims specifically at encouraging the enrichment of real option models. It is striking that only the impact of risk has been widely discussed by the real option theory so far, while the specific impact of ambiguity has been largely ignored. Considering that the real option theory is directly concerned with sources of flexibility, irreversibility and uncertainty in general, ambiguity represents a promising expansion.

Author : Kathrin Glau
Publisher : Springer
Page : 434 pages
File Size : 23,60 MB
Release : 2015-01-09
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 331909114X

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Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling, multiple-curve interest rate-models, and model risk are addressed. Finally, regulatory developments and possible limits of mathematical modeling are discussed.

Author : Zhen-qing Chen
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 618 pages
File Size : 36,50 MB
Release : 2014-11-27
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 981459654X

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This book contains original research papers by leading experts in the fields of probability theory, stochastic analysis, potential theory and mathematical physics. There is also a historical account on Masatoshi Fukushima's contribution to mathematics, as well as authoritative surveys on the state of the art in the field.

Author : Jinqiao Duan
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 313 pages
File Size : 33,32 MB
Release : 2015-04-13
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1107075394

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An accessible introduction for applied mathematicians to concepts and techniques for describing, quantifying, and understanding dynamics under uncertainty.

Author : R. M. Hogarth
Publisher :
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 31,8 MB
Release : 1984
Category :
ISBN :

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The analysis of insurance decision making has traditionally been based on the expected utility model. However, whereas this model ignores the precision with which probabilities can be estimated, there is considerable evidence that uncertainty about uncertainties does affect choice behavior. This paper examines the effects of such ambiguity on insurance decision making by both firms and consumers. After providing examples of the possible effects of ambiguity on the market for insurance, insurance decision making is analyzed theoretically with the aid of the ambiguity model developed by Einhorn and Hogarth (1984). The implications of this model are then tested in a series of four experiments using economically sophisticated subjects. The experimental results accord closely with the theoretical predictions, e.g.: firm's minimum selling prices are more sensitive to ambiguity than consumers' maximum buying prices; for firms, the most profitable market segment per dollar coverage occurs for small probability of loss events where consumers are ambiguous but firms are not; conditions exist where people seek rather than avoid ambiguity.

Author : Peter P. Wakker
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 519 pages
File Size : 46,85 MB
Release : 2010-07-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1139489100

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Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Author : Colin Price
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 39,19 MB
Release : 2017-01-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1119147492

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Transform your organization into a dynamic catalyst for success Accelerating Performance is not just another “warm and fuzzy” change management book—it's a practical, comprehensive, data-driven action plan for picking up the pace and achieving more. Co-written by one of the authors of Beyond Performance, this book draws on a combination of empirical research and decades of experience advising global companies to show you how to reduce time to value by building and changing momentum more quickly than your competitors. The META framework (short for Mobilize, Execute, and Transform with Agility) offers advice for leading change at four levels: strategy, the organization, teams, and individuals. In addition to step-by-step guidance toward assessment, planning, and implementation, the book offers: A diagnostic tool for leaders, teams, and organizations to assess their starting place, and highlight the specific areas needed to improve the ability to accelerate performance. A detailed look at the factors proven to create drag—and drive—at each of the four levels: strategy, organizations, teams, and individuals. An exploration of the 39 differentiating actions that organizations can combine as dictated by their strategy and context into a winning recipe. A closer look at the practices of 23 “superaccelerators,” a global (and perhaps unexpected) mix of companies that have demonstrated a consistent ability to accelerate performance. A single taste of success is all it takes to spark change, but the hard work of following through requires constant vigilance—and a plan. Learn how to capture that drive, bottle it, and use it to sustain motivation, inspiration, and achievement. Deliver at the highest level, and then turn around and do even better next time. Accelerating Performance gives leaders a step-by-step framework for taking action and transforming their organizations, teams, and even themselves—starting today.

Author : Lima Zhao
Publisher : Springer
Page : 192 pages
File Size : 26,79 MB
Release : 2018-05-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3319766635

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This textbook presents a coherent and robust structure for integrated risk management in the context of operations and finance. It explains how the operations-finance interface jointly optimizes material and financial flows under intricate risk exposures. The book covers financial flexibility, operational hedging, enterprise risk management (ERM), supply chain risk management (SCRM), integrated risk management (IRM), supply chain finance (SCF), and financial management of supply chain strategies. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches – including conceptualization, theory building, analytical modeling, and empirical research – are used to assess the value creation by integrating operations and finance. “This book provides a comprehensive description of the interactions between finance and operations and of how managers can best make decisions in recognition of these effects.” John R. Birge, University of Chicago“Supply chain finance is an emerging area where innovations can unlock great values to complement the advances in information and physical flows of supply chain.” Hau L. Lee, Stanford University“This book provides an excellent overview of supply chain finance and its most recent advances.” Jan A. Van Mieghem, Northwestern University“This book is indispensable for advanced students as well as practitioners when looking for a pedagogical sound and scientific rigorous approach to Supply Chain Finance.” Ralf W. Seifert, IMD/EPFL“The book advances our knowledge on the interface between operations and finance and provides managerial guidelines for effective risk management in the supply chain.” Xiande Zhao, CEIBS

Author : Torben Juul Andersen
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 110 pages
File Size : 30,47 MB
Release : 2019-07-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0429851561

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Organizations face challenges in adapting their current business and operational activities to dynamic contexts. Successful companies share a common characteristic of dealing with the emergent risks and threats in responses that generate viable solutions. Strategic risk management (SRM) is a multidisciplinary and rather fractured field of study, which creates significant challenges for research. This short-form book provides an expert overview of the topic, providing insight into the theory and practice. Essential reading for strategic management researchers, the authors frame the fundamental principles, emerging challenges and responses for the future, which will also provide valuable insights for adjacent business disciplines and beyond.