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China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach

Author : Min Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 11,88 MB
Release : 2019-11-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513515357

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China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

Changes in Production Efficiency in China

Author : Bing Xu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 40,46 MB
Release : 2013-08-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1461477204

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Evaluating Production Efficiency in China examines production from engineering and statistics perspectives rather than from economics and mathematics perspectives. The authors present an observable benchmark as the criterion of the production efficiency to replace the unobservable production frontier surface. This book discusses several different computing technologies, controllable variable as a path of identification, changes in production efficiency by decision making on specific operating conditions, and optimal resource allocation. The book provides a channel to tap inside the success stories of China, exploiting the way of changes in production efficiency during China’s development in the past 30 years. This book examines the concepts and realization of production efficiencies across all areas of the economy. Also the book provides the perspective of foreign direct investment (FDI) absorption to identify how Chinese economy changes in production efficiency.

China's Economic Rise

Author : Congressional Research Service
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 28,70 MB
Release : 2017-09-17
Category :
ISBN : 9781976466953

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Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.

China 2049

Author : David Dollar
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
Page : 444 pages
File Size : 28,10 MB
Release : 2020-06-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0815738064

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How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.

Productivity, Efficiency and Economic Growth in China

Author : Y. Wu
Publisher : Springer
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 33,82 MB
Release : 2008-10-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0230228259

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This book provides a detailed insight into productivity, efficiency and growth in the Chinese economy, and offers results on capital stock and ICT capital estimates (at both national and regional levels) which will be an important resource for readers.

Economic Integration Across the Taiwan Strait

Author : Peter C. Y. Chow
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 297 pages
File Size : 50,26 MB
Release : 2013-01-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0857939734

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Despite their controversial political relationship, Taiwan and China remain very much entwined economically. This timely volume explores the complicated state of economic and trade relations between the two countries, meticulously unraveling the issue's various threads and presenting an authoritative breakdown of a complex and fascinating economic linkage. Armed with up-to-date original research, contributors offer expert analyses on a variety of issues relating to economic integration between Taiwan and China. These include trade agreements, foreign direct investment, outsourcing of manufacturing and migration of industry, integration of banking and financial markets, and the recent shift toward a more integrated economy with Greater China. The considerable political tension between the two countries is also discussed, as are the economic relationships with neighboring East Asian countries such as Japan and others. In the final chapter, editor Peter C.Y. Chow discusses Taiwan's policy options for the future and offers his expert recommendations for speeding Taiwan's achievement of globalization and widening its ultimate political choices. Professors and students of global economics and East Asian studies will no doubt find this a fresh and invaluable contribution to the literature.

Securing the Future

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 342 pages
File Size : 35,32 MB
Release : 2003-05-08
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 0309168120

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Based on the deliberations of a high-level international conference, this report summarizes the presentations of an exceptional group of experts, convened by Intel's Chairman Emeritus Gordon Moore and SEMATECH's Chairman Emeritus William Spencer. The report documents the critical technological challenges facing this key industry and the rapid growth in government-industry partnerships overseas to support centers of semiconductor research and production in national economies. Importantly, the report provides a series of recommendations designed to strengthen U.S. research in disciplines supporting the continued growth of semiconductor industry, an industry which has made major contributions to the remarkable increases in productivity in the U.S. economy.

China's Industrial Development In The 21st Century

Author : Hong Yu
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 269 pages
File Size : 12,29 MB
Release : 2011-02-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9814462810

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This unique book intends to provide a focused analysis of the main Chinese industrial sectors through case studies, data analysis and review of new state-initiated policies. In response to the global economic crisis in the short run and to cope with the existing structural problems of production in the long run, the Chinese central government has successively released new development outlines for 10 key industries since 2008. In this book, the authors will use key sectors including automobile, steel, shipbuilding, high-speed railway and new energy, to analyze the development of China's industries, along with their challenges and future prospects.The effectiveness of state-oriented policies in rejuvenating these industries will be evaluated. After discussing the background and motivations for the new government-initiated policies, through detailed analysis of these policies, the authors will assess the contribution they have made to industrial development. The authors will also identify and analyze existing and potential challenges to sustainable development of China's industries.How did the industries respond to climate change and the development of a low-carbon economy in China? What measures have been taken by these industries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reduce overall energy consumption? What are the latest developments in China's industrial sector in terms of technological progress and upgrading? What are the potential challenges facing the industrial sector in the post-economic crisis era? This study intends to address these issues.