[PDF] Probabilistic Modeling Of Lava Flows eBook

Author : Aleeza Harburger
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 29,74 MB
Release : 2014
Category :
ISBN :

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This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function for estimating spatial density showed that there is a 99% chance that a future vent will be located within a 3.6 x 109 m2 area about 20 kilometers north of Flagstaff. This area contains the location of the most recent eruption at Sunset Crater, suggesting that the model is a good predictor of future vent locations. A Monte Carlo analysis of potential vent locations (N = 7,769) showed that 3.5% of simulated vents generated lava flows that inundated Flagstaff, and 1.1% of simulated vents were located within the city limits. Based on the average recurrence rate of vents formed during the Brunhes chronozone, the aggregate probability of lava flow inundation in Flagstaff is 1.1 x 10-5 per year. This suggests that there is a need for the city to plan for lava flows and associated hazards, especially forest fires. Even though it is unlikely that the city will ever have to utilize such a plan, it is imperative that thorough mitigation and response plans are established now-- before the onset of renewed volcanic activity.

Author : Michael Manga
Publisher : Geological Society of America
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 32,33 MB
Release : 2005-01-01
Category : Science
ISBN : 0813723965

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Manga (earth and planetary science, University of California-Berkeley) and Ventura (Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy) overview of the current understanding of the physical, thermal, and chemical processes governing the flow of lava and report on the latest methods for interpreting prehistoric flows. The collected papers encompass volcanological, petrological, and structural studies using numerical and experimental modeling, field studies, remote sensing, and geographic information systems. There is no subject index. Annotation ©2006 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).

Author : Gianluca Groppelli
Publisher :
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 47,18 MB
Release : 2010
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780813724645

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Accompanying CD-ROM, entitled Supplementary materials to Stratigraphy and geology of volcanic areas, includes three geologic maps in Adobe Acrobat PDF files.

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 135 pages
File Size : 10,61 MB
Release : 2017-07-24
Category : Science
ISBN : 0309454158

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Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

Author : A.J.L. Harris
Publisher : Geological Society of London
Page : 680 pages
File Size : 47,80 MB
Release : 2016-06-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 1862397368

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For effusive volcanoes in resource-poor regions, there is a pressing need for a crisis response-chain bridging the global scientific community to allow provision of standard products for timely humanitarian response. As a first step in attaining this need, this Special Publication provides a complete directory of current operational capabilities for monitoring effusive eruptions. This volume also reviews the state-of-the-art in terms of satellite-based volcano hot-spot tracking and lava-flow simulation. These capabilities are demonstrated using case studies taken from well-known effusive events that have occurred worldwide over the last two decades at volcanoes such as Piton de la Fournaise, Etna, Stromboli and Kilauea. We also provide case-type response models implemented at the same volcanoes, as well as the results of a community-wide drill used to test a fully-integrated response focused on an operational hazard-GIS. Finally, the objectives and recommendations of the ‘Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters’ working group are laid out in a statement of community needs by its members.

Author : Joachim Gottsmann
Publisher : Springer
Page : 313 pages
File Size : 44,15 MB
Release : 2018-12-18
Category : Nature
ISBN : 331958412X

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This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Author : Francesca Cigna
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 430 pages
File Size : 16,17 MB
Release : 2021-03-17
Category : Science
ISBN : 3036501266

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Remote sensing data and methods are increasingly being implemented in assessments of volcanic processes and risk. This happens thanks to their capability to provide a spectrum of observation and measurement opportunities to accurately sense the dynamics, magnitude, frequency, and impacts of volcanic activity. This book includes research papers on the use of satellite, aerial, and ground-based remote sensing to detect thermal features and anomalies, investigate lava and pyroclastic flows, predict the flow path of lahars, measure gas emissions and plumes, and estimate ground deformation. The multi-disciplinary character of the approaches employed for volcano monitoring and the combination of a variety of sensor types, platforms, and methods that come out from the papers testify to the current scientific and technology trends toward multi-data and multi-sensor monitoring solutions. The added value of the papers lies in the demonstration of how remote sensing can improve our knowledge of volcanoes that pose a threat to local communities; back-analysis and critical revision of recent volcanic eruptions and unrest periods; and improvement of modeling and prediction methods. Therefore, the selected case studies also demonstrate the societal impact that this scientific discipline can potentially have on volcanic hazard and risk management.

Author : Charles B. Connor
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 671 pages
File Size : 20,39 MB
Release : 2009-08-27
Category : Nature
ISBN : 0521887976

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A summary of the current state-of-the-art in volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment of nuclear facilities for researchers, geologists and engineers.