[PDF] Predictive Modeling Applications In Actuarial Science eBook
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This book is for actuaries and financial analysts developing their expertise in statistics and who wish to become familiar with concrete examples of predictive modeling.
Predictive modeling uses data to forecast future events. It exploits relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences to predict future outcomes. Forecasting financial events is a core skill that actuaries routinely apply in insurance and other risk-management applications. Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes life-long learning by developing tools in an insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications, and introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data. Volume 2 examines applications of predictive modeling. Where Volume 1 developed the foundations of predictive modeling, Volume 2 explores practical uses for techniques, focusing on property and casualty insurance. Readers are exposed to a variety of techniques in concrete, real-life contexts that demonstrate their value and the overall value of predictive modeling, for seasoned practicing analysts as well as those just starting out.
"This manual presents solutions to all exercises from Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks (AMLCR) by David C.M. Dickson, Mary R. Hardy, Howard Waters; Cambridge University Press, 2009. ISBN 9780521118255"--Pref.
Applied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples, and every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner’s reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book’s R package. This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.
Predictive modeling uses data to forecast future events. It exploits relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences to predict future outcomes. Forecasting financial events is a core skill that actuaries routinely apply in insurance and other risk-management applications. Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes life-long learning by developing tools in an insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications, and introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data. Volume 2 examines applications of predictive modeling. Where Volume 1 developed the foundations of predictive modeling, Volume 2 explores practical uses for techniques, focusing on property and casualty insurance. Readers are exposed to a variety of techniques in concrete, real-life contexts that demonstrate their value and the overall value of predictive modeling, for seasoned practicing analysts as well as those just starting out.
"The International Series on Actuarial Science, published by Cambridge University Press in con-junction with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, contains textbooks for students taking courses in or related to actuarial science, as well as more advanced works designed for continuing pro-fessional development or for describing and synthesizing research. The series is a vehicle for publishing books that reflect changes and developments in the curriculum, that encourage the introduction of courses on actuarial science in universities, and that show how actuarial science can be used in all areas where there is long-term financial risk"--
A Hands-On Approach to Understanding and Using Actuarial ModelsComputational Actuarial Science with R provides an introduction to the computational aspects of actuarial science. Using simple R code, the book helps you understand the algorithms involved in actuarial computations. It also covers more advanced topics, such as parallel computing and C/