[PDF] Predicting The Next President eBook

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 246 pages
File Size : 25,34 MB
Release : 2024-07-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN :

GET BOOK

In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 23,26 MB
Release : 2011-12-16
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1442212128

GET BOOK

Think that Richard Nixon lost the 1960 presidential election because he sweated on TV? Or that John Kerry was “swiftboated” out of the presidency in 2004? Think again! In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2012.

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Lexington Books
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 43,27 MB
Release : 2005
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780739112656

GET BOOK

Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.

Author : Allan Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 39,13 MB
Release : 2008-02-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1461644577

GET BOOK

With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 45,76 MB
Release : 2011-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0804778027

GET BOOK

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Author : Allan J Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 24,14 MB
Release : 2020-08-15
Category :
ISBN : 9781538148655

GET BOOK

In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Allan J. Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race, dispelling much of the mystery behind electo...

Author : George C. Edwards, III
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 287 pages
File Size : 28,22 MB
Release : 2016-03-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 140088098X

GET BOOK

Millions of Americans—including many experienced politicians—viewed Barack Obama through a prism of high expectations, based on a belief in the power of presidential persuasion. Yet many who were inspired by candidate Obama were disappointed in what he was able to accomplish once in the White House. They could not understand why he often was unable to leverage his position and political skills to move the public and Congress to support his initiatives. Predicting the Presidency explains why Obama had such difficulty bringing about the change he promised, and challenges the conventional wisdom about presidential leadership. In this incisive book, George Edwards shows how we can ask a few fundamental questions about the context of a presidency—the president's strategic position or opportunity structure—and use the answers to predict a president's success in winning support for his initiatives. If presidential success is largely determined by a president's strategic position, what role does persuasion play? Almost every president finds that a significant segment of the public and his fellow partisans in Congress are predisposed to follow his lead. Others may support the White House out of self-interest. Edwards explores the possibilities of the president exploiting such support, providing a more realistic view of the potential of presidential persuasion. Written by a leading presidential scholar, Predicting the Presidency sheds new light on the limitations and opportunities of presidential leadership.

Author : Sinclair Lewis
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 416 pages
File Size : 45,6 MB
Release : 2014-01-07
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 0698152700

GET BOOK

“The novel that foreshadowed Donald Trump’s authoritarian appeal.”—Salon It Can’t Happen Here is the only one of Sinclair Lewis’s later novels to match the power of Main Street, Babbitt, and Arrowsmith. A cautionary tale about the fragility of democracy, it is an alarming, eerily timeless look at how fascism could take hold in America. Written during the Great Depression, when the country was largely oblivious to Hitler’s aggression, it juxtaposes sharp political satire with the chillingly realistic rise of a president who becomes a dictator to save the nation from welfare cheats, sex, crime, and a liberal press. Called “a message to thinking Americans” by the Springfield Republican when it was published in 1935, It Can’t Happen Here is a shockingly prescient novel that remains as fresh and contemporary as today’s news. Includes an Introduction by Michael Meyer and an Afterword by Gary Scharnhorst

Author : Neil Postman
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 34,72 MB
Release : 2005-12-27
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780143036531

GET BOOK

What happens when media and politics become forms of entertainment? As our world begins to look more and more like Orwell's 1984, Neil's Postman's essential guide to the modern media is more relevant than ever. "It's unlikely that Trump has ever read Amusing Ourselves to Death, but his ascent would not have surprised Postman.” -CNN Originally published in 1985, Neil Postman’s groundbreaking polemic about the corrosive effects of television on our politics and public discourse has been hailed as a twenty-first-century book published in the twentieth century. Now, with television joined by more sophisticated electronic media—from the Internet to cell phones to DVDs—it has taken on even greater significance. Amusing Ourselves to Death is a prophetic look at what happens when politics, journalism, education, and even religion become subject to the demands of entertainment. It is also a blueprint for regaining control of our media, so that they can serve our highest goals. “A brilliant, powerful, and important book. This is an indictment that Postman has laid down and, so far as I can see, an irrefutable one.” –Jonathan Yardley, The Washington Post Book World

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 221 pages
File Size : 19,39 MB
Release : 2021-11-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1538156520

GET BOOK

America’s founders feared a president like Donald Trump. Through the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, they erected a fortified but constrained government to secure the benchmarks of our democracy and established the guardrails designed to protect it. But Trump pushed almost every one of the Framers’ safeguards to its limit—most held, but some broke under the weight of presidential abuses even the Framers did not foresee. Thirteen Cracks will be the first book to expose the most vulnerable areas in our democracy, explain in historical context how President Trump uniquely and outrageously exploited these weak spots, and propose a fix for each challenge. Historian Allen J. Lichtman argues that Trump has put us at a pivot point in our history, where the survival of American democracy is at stake. But this is also an historic opportunity to shore up the vulnerabilities and to strengthen our democracy.