[PDF] Practical Risk Assessment For Project Management eBook
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This practical handbook presents simple techniques for the analysis and management of risk and uncertainty. Covering everything from modelling and simulation to revenue risk assessment, this book will be appropriate for information technology professionals as well as for anyone involved in a project-based business.
Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level: * Why is the duration uncertain? * And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution? These are then progressively elaborated: * How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date? * How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually? * How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all? Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current commercial software. Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas, information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project schedule.
Many of the books on construction risk management concentrate on theoretical approaches to the accurate assessment of the overall risks of taking on a new project. Less attention is paid to the typical risks to which the operational level of a project is exposed and how operational managers should approach those risks during project implementation. This book identifies precisely where the major EPC/Design-Build risks occur within an operational framework and shows how best to deal with those risks. The book attempts to offer practical advice, approaches and tools for dealing with risks to which the various operational departments are exposed.
This guidebook provides guidance to state departments of transportation for using specific, practical, and risk-related management practices and analysis tools for managing and controlling transportation project costs. Containing a toolbox for agencies to use in selecting the appropriate strategies, methods and tools to apply in meeting their cost-estimation and cost-control objectives, this guidebook should be of immediate use to practitioners that are accountable for the accuracy and reliability of cost estimates during planning, priority programming and preconstruction.
Projects are risky undertakings, and modern approaches to managing projects recognise the central need to manage the risk as an integral part of the project management discipline. Managing Risk in Projects places risk management in its proper context in the world of project management and beyond, and emphasises the central concepts that are essential in order to understand why and how risk management should be implemented on all projects of all types and sizes, in all industries and in all countries. The generic approach detailed by David Hillson is consistent with current international best practice and guidelines (including 'A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge' (PMBoK) and the 'Project Risk Management Practice Standard' from PMI, the 'APM Body of Knowledge' and 'Project Risk Analysis & Management (PRAM) Guide' from APM, 'Management of Risk: Guidance for Practitioners' from OGC, and the forthcoming risk standard from ISO) but David also introduces key developments in the risk management field, ensuring readers are aware of recent thinking, focusing on their relevance to practical application. Throughout, the goal is to offer a concise description of current best practice in project risk management whilst introducing the latest relevant developments, to enable project managers, project sponsors and others responsible for managing risk in projects to do just that - effectively.
It’s not exactly news that putting the concepts of risk management into action can help make a project more successful. In fact, a solid understanding of risk management is a vital component of any project management professional’s training, regardless of the industry in which he or she might work. In today’s fast-paced, constantly changing, and extremely competitive environment, risk management is more important than ever for businesses hoping to find their footing in the global market. In Project Risk Management: A Practical Implementation Approach, author Michael M. Bissonette not only provides insights into the best ways to implement the traditional techniques of risk management, but also explores innovative new methods that can help modern organizations build their culture, improve financial performance, and ultimately achieve greater success in all of their projects.
This second edition of the book reflects the authors' work to continually improve upon the model and to apply the methodology to a broader range of issues. The book includes: • An entirely new chapter on managing risk in programs, which is an important dimension in today's world of ever more complex initiatives • Updated material and methodology more closely aligned with relevant international standards • Emphasis on minimizing the threats and maximizing the opportunities to optimize achievement of your project goals Based on sound principles and best practices, this book guides any member of the project management team in conducting risk management in a real-world environment.
This book demystifies risk analysis and enables decision makers to improve the quality of their judgements by providing more realistic information on which to base decisions. With a practical approach, minimising jargon, mathematics and academic references, the author provides practitioners with clear descriptions of the nature of risk and risk attitude. He also describes techniques of analysis and assesses their strengths and weaknesses.
Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.