[PDF] Population Forecasting 1895 1945 eBook

Author : H.A. de Gans
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 26,81 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9401147663

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Authors, scholars and scientists whose mother tongue is not one of the major languages of international communication are seriously disadvantaged. Some individuals, such as Joseph Conrad or Vladimir Nabokov, have overcome that handicap brilliantly. Others learn to live with it: they can express themselves sufficiently lucidly in a second language to make their voice heard internation ally. At least when they have something original or striking to say they will be certain to reach their peers. Most scientists and scholars fall into that category. Others, again, have to wait until their work has been translated before its value is recognised. This may apply even to those whose mother tongue is widely read. The writings of Frenchmen Lyotard, Derrida, Baudrillard or Foucault on post-modernism, on language, discourse and power, for example, had tremendous world-wide impact only after English translations appeared on the market. De Gans' study of the development of population forecasting in The Nether lands is another striking illustration of the effects a language barrier may have. He demonstrates convincingly that although a -possibly some what awkward Dutchman named Wiebols, was a pioneer of modern cohort component demo graphic forecasting, he never received international recognition for this. In his thesis of 1925 Wiebols employed the newest instruments of demographic analysis in improving forecasting methodology.

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 26,98 MB
Release : 2020-09-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 3030424723

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This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Author : Henk A. De Gans
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 29,91 MB
Release : 2003
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9051707479

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This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d

Author : Juha M. Alho
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 27,87 MB
Release : 2008-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1139470353

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There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

Author : Thomas K. Burch
Publisher : Springer
Page : 203 pages
File Size : 38,68 MB
Release : 2017-10-14
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 3319654330

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Late in a career of more than sixty years, Thomas Burch, an internationally known social demographer, undertook a wide-ranging methodological critique of demography. This open access volume contains a selection of resulting papers, some previously unpublished, some published but not readily accessible [from past meetings of The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and its research committees, or from other small conferences and seminars]. Rejecting the idea that demography is simply a branch of applied statistics, his work views it as an autonomous and complete scientific discipline. When viewed from the perspective of modern philosophy of science, specifically the semantic or model-based school, demography is a balanced discipline, with a rich body of techniques and data, but also with more and better theories than generally recognized. As demonstrated in this book, some demographic techniques can also be seen as theoretical models, and some substantive/behavioral models, commonly rejected as theory because of inconsistent observations, are now seen as valuable theoretical models, for example demographic transition theory. This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation. This book is open access under a CC BY license.