[PDF] Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero eBook

Author : Ryō Katō
Publisher :
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 42,44 MB
Release : 2003
Category : Interest rates
ISBN :

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This paper characterizes the optimal monetary policy reaction function in the presence of a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. We analytically prove and numerically show that the function is highly nonlinear, more expansionary, and more aggressive than the Taylor rule. We then test its empirical validity taking the case of Japan in the 1990s. Qualitatively, we find some evidence of nonlinear monetary policy. Quantitatively, we find the actual monetary policy to be too contractionary during the first half of the decade, while the low interest policy during the latter half turns out to be fairly consistent with the simulated path.

Author : Lars Protze
Publisher : Diplomica Verlag
Page : 185 pages
File Size : 45,43 MB
Release : 2008-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3836664909

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Central banks around the world try to influence economic activity by altering nominal interest rates which will have an effect on the real rate. However, this is only possible as long as interest rates are above zero. The case of Japan showed that monetary policy was helpless as nominal rates approached zero. This Book starts with an overview of monetary policy with the restriction that interest rates can not fall below zero. Then optimal monetary policy in a low inflation environment is treated. This is done by using a New Keynesian model with sticky prices. Therefore the model and the necessary optimality conditions will be derived (this will be done extensively in the appendix). After deriving the optimality conditions it will be shown how optimal monetary policy will be conducted. To evaluate the outcome of monetary policy a welfare function will be derived. It will be shown how the welfare function to evaluate the outcome of monetary policy is derived from the utility function of the household. As a result it will be shown that a price level target is welfare maximizing although most central banks nowadays use an inflation target instead. Reasons for an inflation target will be shown in the discussion of the model. The second part of the book describes the inflation dynamics in the euro area to see what monetary authority shall do to prevent the economy from falling into the vicious circle of deflation. Two wage contracting models that describe inflation dynamics in the euro area reasonably well will be explained, the Fuhrer-Moore und the Taylor contracting. After showing the optimal policy it will be discussed how severe the zero bound in the euro area is and what policy alternatives are left when monetary policy is restricted. Finally the results obtained will be discussed to see the pitfalls of price level targeting. The large appendix provides the complete derivation of the model and the optimality conditions.

Author : Anton Nakov
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 30,6 MB
Release : 2004
Category :
ISBN :

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I study how the zero bound on nominal interest rates affects optimal discretionary monetary policy within the standard New Keynesian framework. I find that the non-negativity constraint implies an optimal policy which is more expansionary and more aggressive near the zero bound compared to the optimal rule, which ignores this constraint. This "precautionary loosening" of monetary policy when the risk of deflation is high is required to offset the negative effect of private sector expectations on the current output gap and inflation. The effect is found to be quantitatively significant and to increase with the variance and persistence of the natural real interest rate.

Author : Sven R. Skallsjö
Publisher :
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 47,1 MB
Release : 2004
Category :
ISBN :

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The paper studies optimal monetary policy and its implication for the term structure of interest rates when the nominal short rate is bounded at zero. We state the monetary authority's optimization problem in continuous time according to two specifications, interest rate stabilization and interest rate smoothing. For the former the optimization problem is solved analytically, while numerical procedures are adopted for the latter. The paper then turns to study implications for the term structure of interest rates under risk-neutrality. Term structure equations are solved numerically and implications for yield curves and yield volatility curves are discussed. Data for a low-interest rate country like Japan for 1996-2003 exhibits s-shaped yield curves and yield volatility curves. According to our results this shape is consistent with a smoothing objective for the short rate.

Author : Jonathan Benchimol
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 33,5 MB
Release : 2019-08-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498324584

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The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.