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Over ten years after the “Arab Spring”, the turmoil that swept across North Africa has taken many forms, bringing about change, although not always in a desirable direction. But the Arab uprisings have also brought about a surprising amount of “more of the same”: a decade on, the problems that plagued the region in 2010 have not gone away.This report looks at the future of the region, asking: what will North Africa be in 2030? Which direction could the region as a whole, and specific countries, take, and which challenges will they have to face? And what are the implications for Europe and the US?
Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states. For each country/region, we are adopting a three-phase approach. * In the first phase, contracted research-such as this publication-explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region/country. * In the second phase, a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community (IC) will determine whether anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations, cause economic hardship, or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country/region. * In the final phase, the NIC's Long-Range Analysis Unit (LRAU) will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security.
This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the effects of climate change on selected countries in North Africa, drawing on the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, National Communications to the United Nations Framework (UNFCCC) on Climate Change, and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impacts as sea-level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which the countries in the region are vulnerable to climate change impact. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC's understanding of potential impacts on North Africa and other countries/regions.
Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment, National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states. In April 2009, CENTRA Technology, Inc., convened a group of regional experts to explore the socio-political challenges, civil and key interest group responses, government responses, and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on Russia through 2030. The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists, economists, and political scientists. Although the targeted time frame of the analysis was to 2030, the perceptions of decisionmakers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century. The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate. The panelists concluded that systemic state failures attributable solely to climate change to 2030 are not likely. However, climatic stress coupled with socioeconomic crises and ineffective state responses could generate localized social or governmental collapses and humanitarian crises. The effects of climate change in North Africa will exacerbate the region's existing challenges of insufficient water and food resources, low economic growth, inadequate urban infrastructure, and weak sociopolitical systems.
Early childhood is the most important stage of human development yet in Middle East and North Africa countries there is little research and inadequate investment in this crucial stage of life. This book covers risk, protective factors, policies and programs that can address inequality and shortfalls in the early years of life.
Energy-dependent growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, whether in traditional oil and gas exports or petrochemical production and global refinery operations, will be sensitive to shifts in Asian economies and new technology and efficiency innovation. Without structural reforms to subsidies and labor markets, a reliance on debt finance now kicks the can down the road toward difficult fiscal choices in the future. MENA economies are becoming more integrated into emerging markets not by increased trade but through state-led development partnerships and the use of aid and economic statecraft.
MENA holds more than 60% of oil and nearly 50% of gas reserves, making its economy very vulnerable to price fluctuations. This volume investigates the effect of natural resources and the role of policies on achieving higher and sustained growth through economic diversification.
Climate Change Law and Policy in the Middle East and North Africa Region provides an in-depth and authoritative examination of the guiding principles of climate change law and policy in the MENA region. This volume introduces readers to the latest developments in the regulation of climate change across the region, including the applicable legislation, institutions, and key legal innovations in climate change financing, infrastructure development, and education. It outlines participatory and bottom-up legal strategies—focusing on transparency, accountability, gender justice, and other human rights safeguards—needed to achieve greater coherence and coordination in the design, approval, financing, and implementation of climate response projects across the region. With contributions from a range of experts in the field, the collection reflects on how MENA countries can advance existing national strategies around climate change, green economy, and low carbon futures through clear and comprehensive legislation. Taking an international and comparative approach, this book will be of great interest to students, scholars, and practitioners who work in the areas of climate change, environmental law and policy, and sustainable development, particularly in relation to the MENA region.