[PDF] Mortgage Default And Mortgage Valuation eBook

Author : John Krainer
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 37,61 MB
Release : 2010-10
Category : Law
ISBN : 143793384X

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The authors develop an equilibrium valuation model that incorporates optimal default to show how mortgage yields and lender recovery rates on defaulted mortgages depend on initial loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. The analysis treats both the frictionless case and the case in which borrowers and lenders incur deadweight costs upon default. The model is calibrated using data on California mortgages. Given reasonable parameter values, the model does a surprisingly good job fitting the risk premium in the data for high LTV mortgages. Thus, from an ex ante perspective, the authors do not find strong evidence of systematic underpricing of default risk in the run-up to the housing market crisis. Charts and tables.

Author : Andrew Davidson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 465 pages
File Size : 41,69 MB
Release : 2014-05-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0199363684

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Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are among the most complex of all financial instruments. Analysis of MBS requires blending empirical analysis of borrower behavior with the mathematical modeling of interest rates and home prices. Over the past 25 years, Andrew Davidson and Alexander Levin have been at the leading edge of MBS valuation and risk analysis. Mortgage Valuation Models: Embedded Options, Risk, and Uncertainty contains a detailed description of the sophisticated theories and advanced methods that the authors employ in real-world analyses of mortgage-backed securities. Issues such as complexity, borrower options, uncertainty, and model risk play a central role in the authors' approach to the valuation of MBS. The coverage spans the range of mortgage products from loans and TBA (to-be-announced) pass-through securities to subordinate tranches of subprime-mortgage securitizations. With reference to the classical CAPM and APT, the book advocates extending the concept of risk-neutrality to modeling home prices and borrower options, well beyond interest rates. It describes valuation methods for both agency and non-agency MBS including pricing new loans; approaches to prudent risk measurement, ranking, and decomposition; and methods for modeling prepayments and defaults of borrowers. The authors also reveal quantitative causes of the 2007-09 financial crisis and provide insight into the future of the U.S. housing finance system and mortgage modeling as this field continues to evolve. This book will serve as a foundation for the future development of models for mortgage-backed securities.

Author : Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 17,33 MB
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1463932537

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This paper incorporates house price risk and mortgages into a standard incomplete market (SIM) model. The model is calibrated to match U.S. data and accounts for non-targeted features of the data such as the distribution of down payments, the life-cycle profile of home ownership, and the mortgage default rate. The average coefficients that measure the agents' ability to self-insure against income shocks are similar to those of a SIM model without housing but housing increases the values of these coefficients for younger agents. The response of consumption to house price shocks is minimal. The introduction of minimum down payments or income garnishment benefits a majority of the population.

Author : Michael LaCour-Little
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 26,15 MB
Release : 2003
Category :
ISBN :

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We empirically examine the effect of appraisal quality on subsequent mortgage loan performance using data from the high volatility housing market of Alaska in the 1980s. We develop measures of appraisal quality by computing the residual between a hedonic estimate of house value using available information from other appraisals compared to actual ex ante appraised value. We then estimate proportional hazard models of mortgage default and find that several measures of appraisal quality, particularly appraised value in excess of hedonic estimates, are significantly related to default risk. Using valuations subsequent to loan default, we are also able to evaluate how well house price indices perform in terms of estimating current loan-to-value and offer some additional evidence on the controversy over the role of net equity versus trigger events as determinants of mortgage default. We also show that defaults are related to ex ante measures of housing market conditions, with additional implications for underwriting policies and the current industry trend away from traditional appraisal and toward automated valuation.

Author : Min Qi
Publisher :
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 42,61 MB
Release : 2007
Category : Default (Finance)
ISBN :

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This paper studies residential mortgage loss given default using a large set of historical loan-level default and recovery data of high loan-to-value mortgages from several private mortgage insurance companies. We show that loss given default can largely be explained by various characteristics associated with the loan, the underlying property, and the default, foreclosure, and settlement process. We find that the current loan-to-value ratio is the single most important determinant. More importantly, mortgage loss severity in distressed housing markets is significantly higher than under normal housing market conditions. Our empirical results have important policy implications for risk-based capital.

Author : Chiong-long Kuo
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 30,50 MB
Release : 1998
Category :
ISBN :

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The mortgage pricing literature typically assumes that house prices evolve according to a geometric Brownian motion; the literature then employs conventional arbitrage arguments to value mortgages and their imbedded default options. However, this is not a realistic approach to the modeling of the real estate market. In this paper, a method of polynomial approximation is proposed to value the mortgage default option. This methodology does not rely on arbitrage arguments. Rather than assuming the house priceto be a random walk process, I set up a more realistic house price model with three return components and then use actual transaction data in four cities to estimate the price process. I then apply the empirically estimated house price model to value the default option. I show that variation in the forecastable returns can produce significant variation in the mortgage default option price. The serial correlation of the market return is found to have strong impacts on the price of the default option in all four cities. The random walk model is not able to use the information of current market return and persistent idiosyncratic error for the valuation of the mortgage default option, and therefore may lead to mispricing of the option.

Author : Austin Kelly
Publisher :
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 18,35 MB
Release : 2006
Category :
ISBN :

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Previous research has suggested the possibility that professional appraisals or econometric estimates of collateral value may be indicative of credit risk. This paper examines the issue by estimating the probability of a mortgage default (defined both as 90 day delinquency and as a claim on mortgage insurance) as a function of the difference between sales price of a home and the estimated value of the home at the time of the purchase, produced by both an appraisal and by an Automated Valuation Model (AVM). Logistic regression is used to estimate the quarterly hazard of a serious delinquency, or claim, as a function of a host of standard control variables, and the percent difference between the sales price and the appraisal and/or AVM estimate. The data consist of a nationally representative random sample of about 5,000 FHA insured single family mortgages endorsed in Fiscal Years 2000, 2001, and 2002, observed through January 31, 2006, and a sample of about 1,000 FHA loans from the Atlanta MSA in the same time period. The records are augmented with the results from an AVM. The difference between the sale price and the appraisal or AVM estimate is found to significantly increase the probability of delinquency, and increase the probability of foreclosure, significantly so in the national sample. Also, transactions that are valued with higher precision have lower default propensities. Additionally, the differences are found to increase loss given default in the small subset of loans that had completed the property disposition process.

Author : Richard K. Green
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 249 pages
File Size : 47,90 MB
Release : 2013-11-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0124045936

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In Introduction to Mortgages & Mortgage Backed Securities, author Richard Green combines current practices in real estate capital markets with financial theory so readers can make intelligent business decisions. After a behavioral economics chapter on the nature of real estate decisions, he explores mortgage products, processes, derivatives, and international practices. By focusing on debt, his book presents a different view of the mortgage market than is commonly available, and his primer on fixed-income tools and concepts ensures that readers understand the rich content he covers. Including commercial and residential real estate, this book explains how the markets work, why they collapsed in 2008, and what countries are doing to protect themselves from future bubbles. Green's expertise illuminates both the fundamentals of mortgage analysis and the international paradigms of products, models, and regulatory environments. Written for buyers of real estate, not mortgage lenders Balances theory with increasingly complex practices of commercial and residential mortgage lending Emphasizes international practices, changes caused by the 2008-11 financial crisis, and the behavioral aspects of mortgage decision making