[PDF] Models Of Decision Making eBook

Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher : Ablex Publishing Corporation
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 50,43 MB
Release : 1992-08-01
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780893919436

GET BOOK

This book describes the new perspective of naturalistic decision making. The point of departure is how people make decisions in complex, time-pressured, ambiguous, and changing environments. The purpose of this book is to present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making. The central philosophy of the book is that classical decision theory has been unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics. The contributors believe there is little to be learned from laboratory studies about how people actually handle difficult and interesting tasks; therefore, the book presents a critique of classical decision theory. The models of naturalistic decision making described by the contributors were derived to explain the behavior of firefighters, business people, jurors, nuclear power plant operators, and command-and-control officers. The models are unique in that they address the way people use experience to frame situations and adopt courses of action. The models explain the strengths of skilled decision makers. Naturalistic decision research requires the examination of field settings, and a section of the book covers methods for conducting meaningful research outside the laboratory. In addition, since his approach has applied value, the book covers issues of training and decision support systems.

Author : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 433 pages
File Size : 19,54 MB
Release : 1998-08-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0309523893

GET BOOK

Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Author : Sanderson, Colin
Publisher : McGraw-Hill Education (UK)
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 49,88 MB
Release : 2006-03-01
Category : Medical
ISBN : 0335218458

GET BOOK

Health care systems are complex and, as a result, it is often unclear what the effects of changes in policy or service provision might be. At the same time, resources for health care tend to be in short supply, which means that public health practitioners have to make difficult decisions. This book describes the quantitative and qualitative methods that can help decision-makers to structure and clarify difficult problems and to explore the implications of pursuing different options. The accompanying CD ROM provides the opportunity to try out some of the proposed solutions. The book examines: Models and decision-making in health care Methods for clarifying complex decisions Models for service planning and resource allocation Modelling for evaluating changes in systems

Author : Mikael Krogerus
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 175 pages
File Size : 43,15 MB
Release : 2012-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0393241343

GET BOOK

A short, sharp guide to tackling life’s biggest challenges: understanding ourselves and making the right choices. Every day offers moments of decision, from what to eat for lunch to how to settle a dispute with a colleague. Still larger questions loom: How can I motivate my team? How can I work more efficiently? What is the long tail anyway? Whether you’re a newly minted MBA, a chronic second-guesser, or just someone eager for a new vantage point, The Decision Book presents fifty models for better structuring, and subsequently understanding, life’s steady challenges. Interactive and thought-provoking, this illustrated workbook offers succinct summaries of popular strategies, including the Rubber Band Model for dilemmas with many directions, the Personal Performance Model to test whether to change jobs, and the Black Swan Model to illustrate why experience doesn’t guarantee wisdom. Packed with familiar tools like the Pareto Principle, the Prisoner’s Dilemma, and an unusual exercise inspired by Warren Buffet, The Decision Book is the ideal reference for flexible thinkers.

Author : Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 39,57 MB
Release : 1994-01-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780300057591

GET BOOK

This pathbreaking book illuminates the politics of issue resolution within the European community by evaluating and comparing competing models of decision making across twenty-two policy issues. Written by American and Dutch scholars in the field, the book will be of great interest to students of comparative politics, public policy analysts, mathematic modelers, and all those concerned with the development of the European Community. Contributors: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Samuel Eldersveld, Jacek Kugler, A. F. K. Organski, Roy Pierce, Frans N. Stokman, Jan M. M. Van den Bos, Reinier Van Costen, John H. P. Williams

Author : Guangquan Zhang
Publisher : Springer
Page : 385 pages
File Size : 16,39 MB
Release : 2015-02-07
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 3662460599

GET BOOK

This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.

Author : Sifeng Liu
Publisher : Springer
Page : 391 pages
File Size : 40,57 MB
Release : 2010-12-09
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 3642161588

GET BOOK

Due to inherent limitations in human sensing organs, most data collected for various purposes contain uncertainties. Even at the rare occasions when accurate data are available, the truthful predictions derived on the data tend to create chaotic consequences. So, to effectively process and make sense out of available data, we need methods to deal with uncertainty inherently existing inside the data. The intent of this monograph is to explore the fundamental theory, methods, and techniques of practical application of grey systems theory, initiated by Professor Deng Julong in 1982. This volume presents most of the recent advances of the theory accomplished by scholars from around the world. From studying this book, the reader will not only acquire an overall knowledge of this new theory but also be able to follow the most current research activities. All examples presented are based on practical applications of the theory when urgent real-life problems had to be addressed. Last but not the least, this book concludes with three appendices. The first one compares grey systems theory and interval analysis while revealing the fact that interval analysis is a part of grey mathematics. The second appendix presents an array of different approaches of studying uncertainties. And, the last appendix shows how uncertainties appear using general systems approach.

Author : Ali Farazmand
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 13623 pages
File Size : 20,49 MB
Release : 2023-04-05
Category : Law
ISBN : 3030662527

GET BOOK

This global encyclopedic work serves as a comprehensive collection of global scholarship regarding the vast fields of public administration, public policy, governance, and management. Written and edited by leading international scholars and practitioners, this exhaustive resource covers all areas of the above fields and their numerous subfields of study. In keeping with the multidisciplinary spirit of these fields and subfields, the entries make use of various theoretical, empirical, analytical, practical, and methodological bases of knowledge. Expanded and updated, the second edition includes over a thousand of new entries representing the most current research in public administration, public policy, governance, nonprofit and nongovernmental organizations, and management covering such important sub-areas as: 1. organization theory, behavior, change and development; 2. administrative theory and practice; 3. Bureaucracy; 4. public budgeting and financial management; 5. public economy and public management 6. public personnel administration and labor-management relations; 7. crisis and emergency management; 8. institutional theory and public administration; 9. law and regulations; 10. ethics and accountability; 11. public governance and private governance; 12. Nonprofit management and nongovernmental organizations; 13. Social, health, and environmental policy areas; 14. pandemic and crisis management; 15. administrative and governance reforms; 16. comparative public administration and governance; 17. globalization and international issues; 18. performance management; 19. geographical areas of the world with country-focused entries like Japan, China, Latin America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Russia and Eastern Europe, North America; and 20. a lot more. Relevant to professionals, experts, scholars, general readers, researchers, policy makers and manger, and students worldwide, this work will serve as the most viable global reference source for those looking for an introduction and advance knowledge to the field.

Author : J. Kacprzyk
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 26,90 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9400921098

GET BOOK

Decision making is certainly a very crucial component of many human activities. It is, therefore, not surprising that models of decisions play a very important role not only in decision theory but also in areas such as operations Research, Management science, social Psychology etc . . The basic model of a decision in classical normative decision theory has very little in common with real decision making: It portrays a decision as a clear-cut act of choice, performed by one individual decision maker and in which states of nature, possible actions, results and preferences are well and crisply defined. The only compo nent in which uncertainty is permitted is the occurence of the different states of nature, for which probabilistic descriptions are allowed. These probabilities are generally assumed to be known numerically, i. e. as single probabili ties or as probability distribution functions. Extensions of this basic model can primarily be conceived in three directions: 1. Rather than a single decision maker there are several decision makers involved. This has lead to the areas of game theory, team theory and group decision theory. 2. The preference or utility function is not single valued but rather vector valued. This extension is considered in multiattribute utility theory and in multicritieria analysis. 3.

Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher :
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 30,78 MB
Release : 1999
Category : Decision making
ISBN : 9780262611466

GET BOOK

An overview of naturalistic decision making, which views people as inherently skilled and experienced.