[PDF] Modeling And Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices eBook

Author : Walter C. Labys
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 247 pages
File Size : 47,96 MB
Release : 2017-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1351917080

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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Author : L. Alan Winters
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 334 pages
File Size : 12,95 MB
Release : 1990-03-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521385503

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Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.

Author : Walter C. Labys
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 11,94 MB
Release : 2024-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1003846718

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Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.

Author : Peter V. Schaeffer
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 442 pages
File Size : 15,65 MB
Release : 2008-12-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0470447435

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Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.

Author : Walter C. Labys
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 37,29 MB
Release : 1988
Category : Commercial products
ISBN :

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A review of the state of the art of Bank commodity modeling for forecasting and analysis of supplies, demand, and prices.

Author : C. L. Gilbert
Publisher :
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 28,43 MB
Release : 1990
Category : Prices
ISBN :

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The standard linear model fails to account for primary commodity price movements in any significant area, so it is important to do more empirical work to learn to which commodities this nonlinear model applies.

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 19,28 MB
Release : 2011-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226386899

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.