[PDF] Misalignment eBook

Author : Richard C. Marston
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 332 pages
File Size : 23,60 MB
Release : 2008-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226507254

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Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.

Author : Menzie David Chinn
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 50,12 MB
Release : 1999-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451854250

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The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to evaluate whether eight East Asian currencies were overvalued on the eve of the 1997 crises. The Johansen and Horvath-Watson cointegration test procedures are applied to bilateral and multilateral exchange rates, deflated using CPIs, producer price indices (PPIs), and price indices of export goods. The second deflator yields the greatest evidence of “stationarity.” The study find’s that the Malaysian, Philippines, and Thai currencies were overvalued, while the Korean and Indonesian were substantially undervalued. Mixed results were obtained for the others. Measures of the equilibrium rate based on time trends in CPI-deflated rates typically suggest larger overvaluations.

Author : Carlos Goncalves
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 15 pages
File Size : 19,27 MB
Release : 2017-12-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 148433602X

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The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper, we provide evidence suggesting that the association between exchange rate misalignment and growth for a broad panel of countries is very weak. Controlling for country fixed effects, time effects and initial GDP, a more depreciated currency is associated with higher growth if one does not exclude outliers. However, this positive association always vanishes after controling for the savings rate. Importantly, this applies for both a large panel of countries and for the emerging economies subsample.

Author : Mr.Atsushi Iimi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 35,45 MB
Release : 2006-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451864000

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Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes the behavior of the real exchange rate for the period 1985-2004. It finds that the pula was undervalued in the later 1980s but overvalued in recent years. Some policy lessons from experiences in other countries with crawling peg arrangements are therefore considered in the context of Botswana.

Author : Joel  Seligman
Publisher : Aspen Publishers
Page : 1194 pages
File Size : 49,36 MB
Release : 2020-07-22
Category :
ISBN : 9781543829563

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In Misalignment: The New Financial Order and the Failure of Financial Regulation, Joel Seligman provides a broad account of banking, insurance, and securities regulation from the beginning of the United States through the 2007-2009 financial crisis and concludes with a plan for a fundamentally different approach to financial regulation that is more likely to avoid financial meltdowns in the future and minimize financial perturbations. The history of financial regulation in the United States is a history of crisis reaction. Before the New Deal, uncoordinated regulatory systems were established in banking and insurance. In the New Deal period, the U.S. achieved a long-stable model of financial regulation that atomized financial firms and substantially increased investor and depositor protection. After World War II, the New Deal financial regulatory model deteriorated and vast areas of finance evolved outside of regulation. No event better crystalized this deterioration than the financial debacle of 2007-2009. How was such a debacle possible in a nation whose financial regulatory system was long considered the finest in the world? More than any other cause, the misalignment of the Treasury, Federal Reserve System, and regulatory systems designed in earlier crises to address specific industries was overwhelmed by a New Financial Order, financial supermarkets that operated in several financial fields simultaneously. The 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 was at best a partial response to the greatest financial calamity in our history since the 1929-1932 stock market crash. The failure of Dodd-Frank to address the structure of financial regulation was its most conspicuous weakness. Misalignment proposes a plan for a different approach to financial regulation designed to avoid economic failures in the future and minimize financial disorder.

Author : Debowicz, Dario
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 40,2 MB
Release :
Category : Social Science
ISBN :

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Recent findings in the growth literature suggest that developing countries need to keep a devalued exchange rate to stimulate their economic growth. Building on these findings, we econometrically evaluate to what ex-tent the real exchange rate of Pakistan has been aligned with its economic fundamentals, and find that the Pa-kistan rupee has been significantly and systematically overvalued during the last years. We then simulate the general equilibrium effects of an eventual re-alignment of the real exchange rate with economic fundamen-tals, and find not only an expected increase in the relative size of the tradable sector - where productivity in-creases tend to be faster – but also an associated improvement in the income of the poorest groups.

Author : Enrique Alberola
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 19,60 MB
Release : 2013
Category :
ISBN :

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Between 1990 and 2001 the Argentine peso appreciated by 80 percent in real terms, and its overvaluation has been singled out as one of the main suspects in the debate on the causes of the Argentina collapse of late 2001. This paper assesses the degree of real misalignment in Argentina over the Convertibility period using a model in which the equilibrium real exchange rate is defined as the value consistent with (i) a balance of payments position where any current account imbalance is financed by a sustainable flow of international capital (external equilibrium), and (ii) traded/nontraded sector productivity differentials (internal equilibrium). Empirical implementation of the model suggests that the initial real appreciation of the peso, between 1990 and 1993, was consistent with the productivity increases that Argentina enjoyed following the stabilization of the economy after the hyperinflation of the late 1980s. But after 1996 a widening gap opened between the observed real exchange rate and that consistent with a sustainable net foreign asset position. Our estimates indicate that in 2001 the peso was overvalued by over 50 percent. The model allows us to assess how much of the overvaluation resulted from Argentina's inadequate choice of anchor currency and how much from a divergence of fundamentals between the U.S. and Argentina, ultimately due to the maintenance of policies inconsistent with the peg. We find that both factors played a role in the overvaluation accumulated between 1977 and 2001 that preceded the collapse of the Convertibility regime.

Author : Brian Christian
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 459 pages
File Size : 12,73 MB
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 039363583X

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A jaw-dropping exploration of everything that goes wrong when we build AI systems and the movement to fix them. Today’s “machine-learning” systems, trained by data, are so effective that we’ve invited them to see and hear for us—and to make decisions on our behalf. But alarm bells are ringing. Recent years have seen an eruption of concern as the field of machine learning advances. When the systems we attempt to teach will not, in the end, do what we want or what we expect, ethical and potentially existential risks emerge. Researchers call this the alignment problem. Systems cull résumés until, years later, we discover that they have inherent gender biases. Algorithms decide bail and parole—and appear to assess Black and White defendants differently. We can no longer assume that our mortgage application, or even our medical tests, will be seen by human eyes. And as autonomous vehicles share our streets, we are increasingly putting our lives in their hands. The mathematical and computational models driving these changes range in complexity from something that can fit on a spreadsheet to a complex system that might credibly be called “artificial intelligence.” They are steadily replacing both human judgment and explicitly programmed software. In best-selling author Brian Christian’s riveting account, we meet the alignment problem’s “first-responders,” and learn their ambitious plan to solve it before our hands are completely off the wheel. In a masterful blend of history and on-the ground reporting, Christian traces the explosive growth in the field of machine learning and surveys its current, sprawling frontier. Readers encounter a discipline finding its legs amid exhilarating and sometimes terrifying progress. Whether they—and we—succeed or fail in solving the alignment problem will be a defining human story. The Alignment Problem offers an unflinching reckoning with humanity’s biases and blind spots, our own unstated assumptions and often contradictory goals. A dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, it takes a hard look not only at our technology but at our culture—and finds a story by turns harrowing and hopeful.