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Agricultural investments involving the acquisition of long-term rights over large areas of land in developing countries have been the focus of much debate in recent years. Many have welcomed the renewed momentum for private investment in agriculture, but trends towards large-scale land acquisitions raise major social, economic and environmental concerns. While calls for more inclusive investment models have multiplied, there is limited understanding of what works and under what conditions. For many recent agricultural investments, it is just too early to assess socio-economic outcomes. This report discusses two agricultural investments in Zambia. Both projects started as state-led, development-oriented initiatives in the 1970s and early 1980s, and were later privatised. This long implementation history provides an opportunity to assess the longer-term socio-economic outcomes of agricultural investments, and to distil insights on practical ways to include lower-income groups in investment processes.
Through the Notification of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) for the project “Advisory Services – Program Management for Development and Implementation within the Agricultural Sector” (DCO-PR-18-0293) issued a to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) described a series of information needs and how IFPRI could provide research and analysis that would help the MCC maximize the effectiveness of their agricultural interventions. This report focuses on how agricultural investment should be prioritized across territories within countries to maximize economic returns. With this purpose in mind, we develop a spatial and economic tool for strategic analysis and visioning to help understand where the best opportunities for investments in agriculture, with specific examples for investments in irrigation and roads in Ethiopia and Malawi. For such investments to be effective for poverty alleviation, it is necessary that they lead to farm-level increases in productivity and are translated into higher incomes and better livelihoods for rural households. Our proposed approach utilizes stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to estimate smallholders’ agricultural potential under optimal conditions and compare it with their current performance to assess their efficiency levels. SFA allows the econometric exploration of the notion that, given fixed local agroecological and economic conditions in a region and the occurrence of random shocks that affect agricultural production, the decisions farmers and policymakers make translate into higher or lower production and profits. Inefficiency is then defined as the loss incurred by operating away from an ideal production frontier, and by estimating where this frontier lies, and how far each producer is from it, SFA helps to identify local potential and efficiency levels to construct the typology. For this report, we show how this approach can allow us to compare estimated agricultural potential and efficiency levels under current conditions and hypothetical investment scenarios and calculate what are the agricultural profit gains linked to each case. We can then extrapolate these results at the regional level for the whole country and combine them with GIS data on local agroecological conditions, water availability, topography, and road infrastructure to construct our typology. In particular, we use our typology results to assess where investments in agriculture would be more effective in bringing rural households out of poverty (closing the poverty gap), and how two different types of investments can increase rural households’ incomes through an increase in the profitability of smallholder agriculture. The first scenario looks at the impact of an increase in access to irrigation through river diversion methods, while the second scenario looks at the impact of an increase in market access, which we simulate by analyzing what would be the impact of reducing travel time to the nearest market (city of least 25,000 inhabitants) from any farm in the country by 50%. For Ethiopia, we find pockets of considerable unattained farm profits located throughout the central and western parts of the country, where opportunities for investments to close efficiency gaps in agricultural production and marketing can yield high returns. Low potential in the eastern lowlands limit opportunities for gains from efficiency-oriented investments, and development efforts in these regions should be focused in long-term, large scale interventions that shift the agricultural frontier. With respect to poverty alleviation, our results show that for many regions in the country, especially in the high central plateau, investing in increasing the efficiency of smallholders would be enough to close the poverty gap. In contrast, many areas in the Somali, Tigray, Afar, Oromia, and SNNP regions would require unrealistically high shifts in their agricultural potential due to its current low level combined in many cases with higher than average poverty gaps. The results from the improved irrigation access scenario are heavily constrained by the surface water availability constraint and show that the largest impacts would be observed in Somali and Afar, while in the case of the improved market access scenario, these benefits would extend to Tigray as well. For Malawi, our maps show higher agricultural potential in the Northern and Central regions of the country, consistent with the higher precipitation levels and the agroecological suitability for horticulture in the Kasungu Lilongwe Plain (central), and the staple crop producing areas in the north (such as Chipita). The southern region suffers from lower potential due to poorer general weather conditions and lower rainfall levels. The unattained potential map shows that despite high levels of efficiency, potential in the north is high enough for the remaining gap to be significant, and that the levels of efficiency in the southern tip of the country are low enough to offer some opportunities for efficiency enhancing investments in those areas as well. The poverty analysis shows that the incidence and depth of poverty are higher in the Southern Region of Malawi, but that the poverty gap in all districts of the country could be closed by investing in efficiency enhancing interventions in agriculture without depending on investments that shift the agricultural profit frontier. The results from the improved irrigation access scenario show a larger impact in the Central Region of the country, particularly the districts of Kasungu, Dowa, and Salima, while the improved market access scenario benefits are more evenly spread out across the country.
gricultural science policy in the United States has profoundly affected the growth and development of agriculture worldwide, not just in the A United States. Over the past 150 years, and especially over the second th half of the 20 Century, public investments in agricultural R&D in the United States grew faster than the value of agricultural production. Public spending on agricultural science grew similarly in other more-developed countries, and c- lectively these efforts, along with private spending, spurred agricultural prod- tivity growth in rich and poor nations alike. The value of this investment is seldom fully appreciated. The resulting p- ductivity improvements have released labor and other resources for alternative uses—in 1900, 29. 2 million Americans (39 percent of the population) were - rectly engaged in farming compared with just 2. 9 million (1. 1 percent) today— while making food and fiber more abundant and cheaper. The benefits are not confined to Americans. U. S. agricultural science has contributed with others to growth in agricultural productivity in many other countries as well as the Un- ed States. The world’s population more than doubled from around 3 billion in 1961 to 6. 54 billion in 2006 (U. S. Census Bureau 2009). Over the same period, production of important grain crops (including maize, wheat and rice) almost trebled, such that global per capita grain production was 18 percent higher in 2006.
Investment portfolios of small farmers reflect their difficulties in smoothing consumption in the face of high risks. Improving farmers' ability to smooth consumption - perhaps through public employment schemes or increased consumption credit - would increase the overall profitability of their investments and would decrease inequality of earnings in high- risk areas.
As Rwanda is expected to return to its rapid growth trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic, agriculture will continue to play a central role in the structural transformation of the entire economy. To this end, the Government of Rwanda continues to invest in the agricultural sector by building on Strategic Plans for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTAs) that began in the early 2000s. The challenging question is how to prioritize public expenditures across a broad portfolio of policies and programs. Ambitious plans, whether in the short or long term, require difficult decisions. The prioritization of public investment becomes even more complex as Rwanda’s structural transformation advances and as new investments—beyond the farm—become critically important for the agricultural sector. The structural transformation process itself means that as agriculture becomes more integrated with the rest of the economy, public resource allocations need to address a wider range of issues across the entire food system; these include nutrition-sensitive food production systems, inclusive value chain development, nonfarm rural enterprise development, and climate-resilient sustainable intensification of both crops and livestock. This study provides evidence that is designed to assist the Government of Rwanda in its selection of agricultural policy, investment, and expenditure portfolios that reflect the country’s broad focus on its food system and structural transformation. This process of prioritization will need to incorporate multiple public investments targeting multiple development outcomes and will need to be grounded in the costeffective use of public resources in a largely market-led transformation process. This data-driven and evidence-based approach must critically underpin an informed investment prioritization process that helps achieve ambitious targets in an environment constrained by limited public resources. The study uses the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with contributions from colleagues at the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) and the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The study draws on data from multiple sources as well as expert insights to inform the application of RIAPA’s Agricultural Investment for Data Analyzer (AIDA) module as a tool to measure the impacts of alternative public expenditure options on multiple development outcomes. Using this integrated modeling framework, the study links agricultural and rural development spending to four specific outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement; at the same time, it considers the synergies and tradeoffs associated with the different investment options in the transformation process. The paper first assesses the contribution of public expenditures to agricultural and rural development under the fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4) that extends between 2018 and 2024. These findings are important, given the fact that since the beginning of PSTA 4, the budget allocated to MINAGRI (measured in constant prices) has stagnated. Our results suggest that increased spending on agriculture is well justified and that such spending is essential if the Government of Rwanda is to achieve its long-term development goals.
The Innovation for Agribusiness (InovAgro) project, which launched with its first three year phase in 2010, uses a market system development (MSD) approach towards the goal of increasing incomes of men and women small-scale farmers in northern Mozambique. InovAgro interventions promote improved agricultural productivity, participation in selected high-potential value chains and the development of inclusive and sustainable market systems, such that impacts are expected to last long beyond the termination of the project. This paper presents results from a midline quantitative impact evaluation of the second phase of the InovAgro project interventions (2014-2017). In it, we use a carefully designed and executed quasi-experimental study design to credibly attribute changes in market engagement and welfare of participating farmers to exposure to the InovAgro II project, identifying and testing in what respects the intervention was most successful, and what regard it had less impact. Although InovAgro II projects operate in 11 districts of Zambézia and Cabo Delgado provinces, this impact evaluation focuses on two districts in Zambézia province (Alto Molócue and Molumbo), and in terms of value chains, focuses on the soybean and pigeon pea high-potential value chains, while the InovAgro II project interventions focus on these in addition to maize, sesame and groundnut. A baseline survey was undertaken in 2015 covering the 2014/2015 agricultural season and a midline follow-up survey was conducted in 2017, covering the 2016/2017 agricultural season and reaching 1,749 households of the original 1,886 households interviewed in the baseline survey. Using difference-in-difference estimation and propensity score matching, we find that exposure to the InovAgro II project is associated with an increase in the proportion of households selling soybean and pigeon pea by approximately 5% and 16%, respectively (significant at the .01 level). Exposure to the InovAgro II project also results in significantly higher shares of smallholder farmers using improved seed for soybean and pigeon pea (an increase of 6% for soybean and 2% for pigeon pea). We find that the InovAgro II project is also associated with significant increases in access to agricultural output market information from formal sources (5%) and hired labor for farming activities (8%). Despite the significant impacts on short term outcome variables, exposure to the InovAgro II project had limited impact on long term outcome variables, such as on rural-urban migration as well as engagement in the non-farm sector (two proxies for assessing potential welfare implications of the project) however this finding is not surprising given the impact evaluation covers only two years-a short period of time to bring about the long-term impacts expected to eventually emanate from an MSD project.
Substantial increases in agricultural investments in developing countries are needed to combat poverty and realize food security and nutrition goals. There is evidence that agricultural investments can generate a wide range of developmental benefits, but these benefits cannot be expected to arise automatically and some forms of large-scale investment carry risks for host countries. Although there has been much debate about the potential benefits and risks of international investment, there is no systematic evidence on the actual impacts on the host country and their determinants. In order to acquire an in-depth understanding of potential benefits, constraints and costs of foreign investment in agriculture and of the business models that are more conducive to development, FAO has undertaken research in developing countries.This publication summarizes the results of this research, in particular through the presentation of the main findings of case studies in nine developing countries. It presents case studies on policies to attract foreign investment in agriculture and their impacts on national economic development in selected countries in Africa, Asian and Latin America.
Under the pressure of climate and social changes, agriculture is called to play a fundamental role in the world food challenge of the next few decades. A severe reduction of arable land and water scarcity combined with a growing food demand, changes in the dietary preferences in many countries and, more recently, a growing threat to food security and logistics from supply chains interruptions and global trade fragmentation, all require the implementation of processes, techniques, and innovations able to increase productivity and make a better use of scarce resources. Against this backdrop, a growing number of investors and asset managers have started looking at agriculture as an interesting investment theme to exploit the long-term strategic opportunities emerging from technological innovation and social changes. The industry is undergoing a process of transformation driven, on the one hand, by the emergence of new data and technologies that promise enhancing process efficiency and improve yields and, on the other hand, by an increased attention on the GHG emissions of agricultural processes and the impact of farmland on climate change, water and land scarcity. All these factors call for a radical rethinking of many agriculture business models. This book provides a detailed overview and analysis of those new technologies with the greatest potential to disrupt agriculture products and processes by improving productivity and the management of food loss and waste, making a more efficient and sustainable use of resources and enhancing food security. Then, it discusses the implications for investors and asset managers, starting with an assessment of the status quo of agriculture investing and providing a thorough description of the agriculture asset class with an emphasis on its distinctive characteristics and the innovations in the technological processes used in agriculture and farming with the greatest potential to obtain long-term sustainable returns.