[PDF] Lights Out Covid 19 Containment Policies And Economic Activity eBook

Author : Robert Beyer
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 33,1 MB
Release : 2022
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ISBN :

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This paper estimates how strongly COVID-19 containment policies have impacted aggregate economic activity. We use a difference-in-differences methodology to estimate how containment zones of different severity across India impacted district-level nighttime light intensity, as well as household income and consumption. From May to July 2020, nighttime light intensity was 9.1% lower in districts with the most severe restrictions compared with districts with the least severe restrictions, which could imply between 5.8% and 6.6% lower GDP. Nighttime light intensity was only 1.6% lower in districts with intermediate restrictions. The differences were largest in May during the graded lockdown, and tapered in June and July. Lower house-hold income and consumption corresponding to zone-wise restrictions corroborate these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density, older residents, and more services employment. The large magnitudes of the findings suggest that governments should avoid country-wide pandemic containment policies.

Author : Robert C.M. Beyer
Publisher :
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 41,14 MB
Release : 2020
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This paper estimates the impact of a differential relaxation of COVID-19 containment policies on aggregate economic activity in India. Following a uniform national lockdown, the Government of India classified all districts into three zones with varying containment measures in May 2020. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the paper estimates the impact of these restrictions on nighttime light intensity, a standard high-frequency proxy for economic activity. To conduct this analysis, pandemic-era, district-level data from a range of novel sources are combined - monthly nighttime lights from global satellites; Facebook's mobility data from individual smartphone locations; and high-frequency, household-level survey data on income and consumption, supplemented with data from the Indian Census and the Reserve Bank of India. The analysis finds that nighttime light intensity in May was 12.4 percent lower for districts with the most severe restrictions and 1.7 percent lower for districts with intermediate restrictions, compared with districts with the least restrictions. The differences were largest in May, when the different policies were in place, and slowly tapered in June and July. Restricted mobility and lower household income are plausible channels for these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density of older residents, as well as more services employment and bank credit.

Author : Pragyan Deb
Publisher :
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 49,10 MB
Release : 2020-08-07
Category :
ISBN : 9781513550251

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Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

Author : Amjad Muhammad Khan
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 40,8 MB
Release : 2022
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This paper uses high-frequency nighttime time lights data to estimate the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on economic activity during the first year of the pandemic for a global sample of 2,800 cities, covering a total population of 2.5 billion people. Activity is found to be negatively affected by both the spread of the virus and the imposition of nonpharmaceutical interventions, but the negative impacts of the spread are large compared to those of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Large differences in city trajectories are also observed. Cities in low- and middle-income countries faced a significantly larger overall loss of economic activity compared to those in high-income countries. Additionally, cities with higher population densities are found to be more resilient in the face of the global shock as compared to less dense ones, but this difference is only observed in low- and middle-income countries. Taken together, the findings suggest that the Covid-19 crisis gave rise to divergence in urban economic trajectories, both across and within countries.

Author : Xinming Du
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 21,61 MB
Release : 2022
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Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the globe have undertaken multiple policies to control its spread. Yet, only a few studies estimated the cost of COVID-19-related stringency measures on economic output, which can be attributable to the time lag and low frequency of conventional economic data. To bridge this gap in the literature, this paper uses novel high-frequency and spatially granular surface urban heat island (SUHI) data from satellites to quantify the impact of COVID-19-related containment policies in the People's Republic of China, exploiting variations in such policies. Three empirical results emerge. First, we find stringency measures decrease urban heat island in locked cities only marginally, which is equivalent to 0.04-0.05 standard deviation or CNY22.2 billion ($3.6 billion) of economic output drop which is a 0.09% annual gross domestic product decline in 2020. Second, our results suggest that governments have been learning continuously to manage containment measures better. Third, the government's containment policies have generated both positive and negative spillover effects on unlocked cities in which the former effect has dominated the latter.

Author : Pragyan Deb
Publisher :
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 35,4 MB
Release : 2020
Category : COVID-19 (Disease)
ISBN :

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Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity -- equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stayat- home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

Author : Jana Bricco
Publisher :
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 30,11 MB
Release : 2020-09-18
Category :
ISBN : 9781513556109

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This paper examines the economic effects of policies to contain Covid-19, by extracting lessons from Sweden's experience during the 'Great Lockdown'. Sweden's approach was less stringent and based more on social responsibility than legal obligations compared to European peers. First, we provide an account of Sweden's strategy and the health outcomes. Second, drawing on a range of data sources and empirical findings, our analysis of the first Covid-19 wave indicates that a less stringent strategy can soften the economic impact initially. These benefits could be eroded subsequently, due to potentially higher infection rates and a prolonged pandemic, but in Sweden's case, the evidence remains mixed in this regard, and it is premature to judge the outcome of Sweden's containment strategy. In addition, the economic effects of the containment strategy also depend on social behavior, demographics and structural features of the economy, such as the degree of export orientation, reliance on global supply chains, and malleability to remote working.