[PDF] Labor Market Dynamics With Endogenous Labor Force Participation And On The Job Search eBook

Author : Michael Neugart
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 181 pages
File Size : 35,95 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3642583482

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Nonlinear Labor Market Dynamics discusses adjustment processes in labor markets. Contrary to linear-stochastic approaches this book is based on a non-linear deterministic framework. It is shown that even textbook-like-models of the labor market can generate long lasting adjustment processes, local instabilities, and chaotic movements, once nonlinear relationships and widely accepted adjustment rules are introduced. Thus, labor market dynamics may have an endogenous component that is governed by a nonlinear deterministic core. Of course, all results are tied to the particular models discussed in this book. Nevertheless, these models imply that by incorporating nonlinear relationships, one may arrive at an explanation of labor market behavior where linear stochastic approaches fell. Time series studies for German labor market data support this point of view.

Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 71 pages
File Size : 13,69 MB
Release : 2019-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513524895

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This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.

Author : Christopher J. Flinn
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 26,2 MB
Release : 2011-02-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262288761

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The introduction of a search and bargaining model to assess the welfare effects of minimum wage changes and to determine an “optimal” minimum wage. In The Minimum Wage and Labor Market Outcomes, Christopher Flinn argues that in assessing the effects of the minimum wage (in the United States and elsewhere), a behavioral framework is invaluable for guiding empirical work and the interpretation of results. Flinn develops a job search and wage bargaining model that is capable of generating labor market outcomes consistent with observed wage and unemployment duration distributions, and also can account for observed changes in employment rates and wages after a minimum wage change. Flinn uses previous studies from the minimum wage literature to demonstrate how his model can be used to rationalize and synthesize the diverse results found in widely varying institutional contexts. He also shows how observed wage distributions from before and after a minimum wage change can be used to determine if the change was welfare-improving. More ambitiously, and perhaps controversially, Flinn proposes the construction and formal estimation of the model using commonly available data; model estimates then enable the researcher to determine directly the welfare effects of observed minimum wage changes. This model can be used to conduct counterfactual policy experiments—even to determine “optimal” minimum wages under a variety of welfare metrics. The development of the model and the econometric theory underlying its estimation are carefully presented so as to enable readers unfamiliar with the econometrics of point process models and dynamic optimization in continuous time to follow the arguments. Although most of the book focuses on the case where only the unemployed search for jobs in a homogeneous labor market environment, later chapters introduce on-the-job search into the model, and explore its implications for minimum wage policy. The book also contains a chapter describing how individual heterogeneity can be introduced into the search, matching, and bargaining framework.

Author : Dominique M. Gross
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 12,46 MB
Release : 1998-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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The paper analyzes the ability of a regional labor market to absorb growing flows of immigrant workers with declining levels of skills during relatively high unemployment. The impact of the size of the flow and the skill characteristics of the immigrants are analyzed. It is found that immigration is positively related to unemployment in the short run but in the long run is negatively related. Also, a higher average skill level among immigrants makes them more effective in their job search in the short run. Finally, increasing the discrepancy between the skill distribution of immigrants and that of the existing workforce is desirable, as both types of labor appear to be complements in the short-run.

Author : Xiaoxue Song
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 44,58 MB
Release : 2022
Category : Human capital
ISBN :

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My dissertation consists of three chapters studying the heterogeneity in the labor market. Chapter 1 studies the by-age employment heterogeneity in response to technology shocks. Chapter 2 studies the by-age labor force participation heterogeneity in response to macroeconomic shocks. Chapter 3 studies the effect of monetary policy on the employment of occupations with different levels of routine task intensity. A central question in macroeconomics is how employment changes in response to technological progress. In Chapter 1, I broaden this question by investigating if there exist age-specific effects. I use the mixed autoregression (MAR) model to explicitly model the employment to population ratio as a function of age. The results show the responses of young and old employment ratios are much more negative than prime-age, and the response of the young is three times lower than that of the old. Moreover, the forecast error variance decomposition results show that technology shocks' contribution decreases by age. The labor force participation rate is weakly procyclical, as opposed to employment, which is strongly procyclical. Therefore, labor force participation is mostly assumed to be constant in the literature. However, the young, prime-age, and old participation rates are heterogeneous in cyclicality and volatility. In Chapter 2, I study the heterogeneity in the participation of 16-65 old in response to important macroeconomic shocks. I extend the identification scheme in the MAR model from zero to sign restrictions, which enable me to include labor market shocks important for explaining participation rate fluctuations. The results show that young, prime-age, and old participation rates respond differently to the technology, demand, labor supply, and wage bargaining shocks.Routine occupation employment share has decreased, while non-routine occupation employment share has increased since the 1980s. This trend of job polarization has been contributing to the growth in wage inequality in the US. In Chapter 3, I study the effect of a contractionary monetary policy shock on occupational employment with different levels of routine task inputs in a MAR model. I show that routine occupation groups' employment, especially those with higher offshorability, are disproportionally affected by a contractionary monetary policy shock.

Author : Mai Dao
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 13,85 MB
Release : 2014-02-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475598599

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We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past 40 years. Using state-level data, we estimate the dynamic response of regional employment, unemployment, participation rates and net migration to state-relative labor demand shocks. We find that (i) the long-run effect of a state-specific shock on the state employment level has decreased over time, suggesting less overall net migration in response to a regional shock, (ii) the role of the participation rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased, (iii) the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger, while that of relative unemployment is weaker during aggregate downturns, and (iv) the change in the response intensity of migration is related to the declining trend in regional dispersion of labor market conditions. Finally, using regional data for a set of 21 European countries, we show that while the short-term response of participation rates to labor demand shocks is typically larger in Europe than in the US, the immediate response of net migration in Europe has increased over time.

Author : Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 98 pages
File Size : 42,83 MB
Release : 1995-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451854781

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This paper examines the role of the labor market in the transmission process of adjustment policies in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the recent evidence regarding the functioning of these markets. It then studies the implications of wage inertia, nominal contracts, labor market segmentation, and impediments to labor mobility for stabilization policies. The effect of labor market reforms on economic flexibility and the channels through which labor market imperfections alter the effects of structural adjustment measures are discussed next. The last part of the paper identifies a variety of issues that may require further investigation, such as the link between changes in relative wages and the distributional effects of adjustment policies.