Author : Michael Eisenstadt
Publisher :
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 39,18 MB
Release : 2011
Category : Internal security
ISBN :
Iran's attempts to wield its influence in Iraq have thus far yielded only mixed results, though the formation of a new government that incorporates many of Tehran's closest Iraqi allies, and the impending U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, will present new opportunities for Iran to extend its reach. Such a move is likely to generate further Iraqi pushback, though it remains to be seen whether Iranian influence will continue to be "self-limiting" or whether this emerging reality will create new opportunites for Tehran to transform Iraq into a weak client state via a gradual process of "Lebanonization." Over the long run, the nature of the relationship between Iraq and Iran will depend largely on the security situation in Iraq, the political complexion of the Iraqi government, and the type of long-term relationship Iraq builds with its Arab neighbors and the United States. Moreover, Iraq's reemergence as a major oil exporter, likely at Iran's expense, will almost certainly heighten tensions between the two oil-exporting nations.