[PDF] Interpreting The Volatility Smile eBook

Author : Emanuel Derman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 528 pages
File Size : 12,64 MB
Release : 2016-09-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1118959167

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The Volatility Smile The Black-Scholes-Merton option model was the greatest innovation of 20th century finance, and remains the most widely applied theory in all of finance. Despite this success, the model is fundamentally at odds with the observed behavior of option markets: a graph of implied volatilities against strike will typically display a curve or skew, which practitioners refer to as the smile, and which the model cannot explain. Option valuation is not a solved problem, and the past forty years have witnessed an abundance of new models that try to reconcile theory with markets. The Volatility Smile presents a unified treatment of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the more advanced models that have replaced it. It is also a book about the principles of financial valuation and how to apply them. Celebrated author and quant Emanuel Derman and Michael B. Miller explain not just the mathematics but the ideas behind the models. By examining the foundations, the implementation, and the pros and cons of various models, and by carefully exploring their derivations and their assumptions, readers will learn not only how to handle the volatility smile but how to evaluate and build their own financial models. Topics covered include: The principles of valuation Static and dynamic replication The Black-Scholes-Merton model Hedging strategies Transaction costs The behavior of the volatility smile Implied distributions Local volatility models Stochastic volatility models Jump-diffusion models The first half of the book, Chapters 1 through 13, can serve as a standalone textbook for a course on option valuation and the Black-Scholes-Merton model, presenting the principles of financial modeling, several derivations of the model, and a detailed discussion of how it is used in practice. The second half focuses on the behavior of the volatility smile, and, in conjunction with the first half, can be used for as the basis for a more advanced course.

Author : Steven Aric Weinberg
Publisher :
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 17,22 MB
Release : 2003
Category :
ISBN :

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This paper evaluates how useful the information contained in options prices is for predicting future price movements of the underlying assets. We develop an improved semiparametric methodology for estimating risk-neutral probability density functions (PDFs), which allows for skewness and intertemporal variation in higher moments. We use this technique to estimate a daily time series of risk-neutral PDFs spanning the late 1980's through 1999, for Samp;P 500 futures, U.S. dollar/Japanese yen futures and U.S. dollar/deutsche mark futures, using options on these futures. For the foreign exchange futures, we find little discernable additional information contained in the estimated PDFs beyond the information derived from the Black-Scholes model, a fully parametric specification. For Samp;P 500 futures, we find that the risk-neutral distribution implied by the volatility smile better fits the realized returns than the Black-Scholes model, although this better overall fit is not exhibited in the second and third moments.

Author : Ricardo Baeza-Yates
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 497 pages
File Size : 47,95 MB
Release : 2006-02-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0387233946

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Applied probability is a broad research area that is of interest to scientists in diverse disciplines in science and technology, including: anthropology, biology, communication theory, economics, epidemiology, finance, geography, linguistics, medicine, meteorology, operations research, psychology, quality control, sociology, and statistics. Recent Advances in Applied Probability is a collection of survey articles that bring together the work of leading researchers in applied probability to present current research advances in this important area. This volume will be of interest to graduate students and researchers whose research is closely connected to probability modelling and their applications. It is suitable for one semester graduate level research seminar in applied probability.

Author : Michael B. Miller
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 341 pages
File Size : 18,84 MB
Release : 2013-12-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1118750292

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Mathematics and Statistics for Financial Risk Management is a practical guide to modern financial risk management for both practitioners and academics. Now in its second edition with more topics, more sample problems and more real world examples, this popular guide to financial risk management introduces readers to practical quantitative techniques for analyzing and managing financial risk. In a concise and easy-to-read style, each chapter introduces a different topic in mathematics or statistics. As different techniques are introduced, sample problems and application sections demonstrate how these techniques can be applied to actual risk management problems. Exercises at the end of each chapter and the accompanying solutions at the end of the book allow readers to practice the techniques they are learning and monitor their progress. A companion Web site includes interactive Excel spreadsheet examples and templates. Mathematics and Statistics for Financial Risk Management is an indispensable reference for today’s financial risk professional.

Author : Sebastien Bossu
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 22,6 MB
Release : 2014-05-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1118750969

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In Advanced Equity Derivatives: Volatility and Correlation, Sébastien Bossu reviews and explains the advanced concepts used for pricing and hedging equity exotic derivatives. Designed for financial modelers, option traders and sophisticated investors, the content covers the most important theoretical and practical extensions of the Black-Scholes model. Each chapter includes numerous illustrations and a short selection of problems, covering key topics such as implied volatility surface models, pricing with implied distributions, local volatility models, volatility derivatives, correlation measures, correlation trading, local correlation models and stochastic correlation. The author has a dual professional and academic background, making Advanced Equity Derivatives: Volatility and Correlation the perfect reference for quantitative researchers and mathematically savvy finance professionals looking to acquire an in-depth understanding of equity exotic derivatives pricing and hedging.

Author : Euan Sinclair
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 45,23 MB
Release : 2008-06-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0470181990

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In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.