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The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes a new country-level version of the model. IMPACT-SIMM (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade–Standard IFPRI Multimarket Model) is a partial equilibrium, multi-market, simulation model of the production, supply, and demand of agricultural commodities within a country or group of countries. It simulates the operation of agricultural markets, solving for equilibrium prices within a country and, in multi-country mode, global markets. It is designed to be a “portable” and potentially open-source version of the IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) IMPACT3 model documented in Robinson et al. (2015). IMPACT-SIMM shares model specification, equations, and computer code with IMPACT3, but is designed to be more flexible in application. It allows users to specify a standard multi-market model at any level of aggregation by commodities and countries by changing data inputs, without any change in model code. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies at the level of individual countries or groups of countries.
The International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes the latest version of the model. IMPACT version 3 expands the geographic and commodity scope of the model in response to desires expressed by researchers and policymakers to address more complex questions involving climate change, food security, and economic development into the future. IMPACT 3 is an integrated modeling system that links information from climate models (Earth System Models), crop simulation models (for example, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), and water models linked to a core global, partial equilibrium, multimarket model focused on the agriculture sector. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.
As the effects of climate change set in, and population and income growth exert increasing pressure on natural resources, food security is becoming a pressing challenge for countries worldwide. Awareness of these threats is critical to transforming concern into long-term planning, and modeling tools like the one used in the present study are beneficial for strategic support of decision making in the agricultural policy arena. The focus of this investigation is the Republic of Korea, where economic growth has resulted in large shifts in diet in recent decades, in parallel with a decline in both arable land and agricultural production, and a tripling of agricultural imports, compared to the early 2000s. Although these are recognized as traits of a rapidly growing economy, officials and experts in the country recognize that the trends expose the Republic of Korea to climate change shocks and fluctuations in the global food market. This study uses the IMPACT (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) economic model to investigate possible future trends of both domestic food production and dependence on food imports, as well as the effects from adoption of agricultural practices consistent with a climate change adaptation strategy. The goal is to help assess the prospects for sustaining improvements in food security and possibly inform the national debate on agricultural policy. Results show that historical trends of harvested area and imports may continue into the future under climate change. Although crop models suggest negative long-term impacts of climate change on rice yield in the Republic of Korea, the economic model simulations show that intrinsic productivity growth and market effects have the potential to limit the magnitude of losses; rice production and yield are projected to keep growing between 2010 and 2050, with a larger boost when adoption of improved technologies is taken into consideration. At the same time, food production and net exports from the country’s major trading partners are also projected to increase, although diminished by climate change effects. In sum, these results show that kilocalorie availability will keep growing in the Republic of Korea, and although climate change may have some impact by reducing the overall availability, the effect does not appear strong enough to have significant consequences on projected trends of increasing food security.
The Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) is designed of detailed analysis of agricultural policy issues. It can be used as a tool by researchers and negotiators alike for quantifying the economic effects at the global and regional level of recent changes in national trade policies. The Model covers 161 countries and 35 agricultural commodities, and includes an extensive database. The Model also provides estimates of changes in trade volumes, prices, government revenues and welfare indicators linked to changes in the general trade policy environment. The Model can be downloaded free from the UNCTAD website at http://www.uncatd.org/tab/.
Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries presents research findings based on a series of commodity studies of significant economic importance to developing countries. The book sets the stage with background chapters and investigations of cross-cutting issues. It then describes trade and domestic policy regimes affecting agricultural and food markets, and assesses the resulting patterns of production and trade. The book continues with an analysis of product standards and costs of compliance and their effects on agricultural and food trade. The book also investigates the impact of preferences given to selected countries and their effectiveness, then reviews the evidence on the attempts to decouple agricultural support from agricultural output. The last background chapter explores the robustness of the global gains of multilateral agricultural and food trade liberalization. Given this context, the book presents detailed commodity studies for coffee, cotton, dairy, fruits and vegetables, groundnuts, rice, seafood products, sugar, and wheat. These markets feature distorted policy regimes among industrial or middle-income countries. The studies analyze current policy regimes in key producing and consuming countries, document the magnitude of these distortions and estimate the distributional impacts - winners and losers - of trade and domestic policy reforms. By bringing the key issues and findings together in one place, Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries aids policy makers and researchers, both in their approach to global negotiations and in evaluating their domestic policies on agriculture. The book also complements the recently published Agriculture and the WTO, which focuses primarily on the agricultural issues within the context of the WTO negotiations.