[PDF] Inflation And Deflationary Biases In Inflation Expectations eBook

Author : Mads Kieler
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 33,2 MB
Release : 2003-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451851537

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The ECB's objective of medium-term inflation below 2 percent has been portrayed by critics as ambiguous, asymmetric, and excessively stringent. This paper attempts a comprehensive evaluation of the trade-offs for the euro area and finds that: (1) in terms of guiding inflation expectations and policymaking, the current definition has functioned much as would an inflation target centered on 1 1/2-1 3/4 percent; (2) the absence of a specific (point) target for medium-term inflation has encumbered the communication of monetary policy; and (3) a target toward the upper end of the ECB's price-stability range would seem, at least with the current membership of EMU, to strike a judicious balance between the benefits of price stability, on the one hand, and the need to assist relative price and wage adjustment across EMU and safeguard against deflation, on the other hand.

Author : Carlos Capistrán
Publisher :
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 37,35 MB
Release : 2008
Category :
ISBN :

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Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters' costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive serial correlation in forecast errors; (iii) a cross-sectional dispersion that rises with the level and the variance of the inflation rate; and (iv) predictability of forecast errors at different horizons by means of the spread between the short- and long-term variance of inflation. We find empirically that these patterns are present in inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. A constant bias component, not explained by asymmetric loss and rational expectations, is required to explain the shift in the sign of the bias observed for a substantial portion of forecasters around 1982.

Author : Mubariz Hasanov
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 43,9 MB
Release : 2012
Category : Deflation (Finance)
ISBN : 9781613244791

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In this book, the authors gather and present current research in the study of inflation, deflation and disinflation. Topics discussed in this compilation include the Phillips curve model and inflation forecasting; inflation targeting and central bank policymaking; market-based measures of inflation expectations in the Euro area and inflation convergence in the context of EMU participation.

Author : Silu Muduli
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 30,74 MB
Release : 2023
Category :
ISBN :

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Post-COVID, supply shock-induced spike in inflation in India has spawned renewed research interest in assessing the extent to which inflation expectations are anchored to the inflation target, given its importance to securing price stability in the medium run. This article constructs a bias-adjusted household inflation expectations series to show that such a measure contains useful forward-looking information for predicting headline inflation. It also presents an inflation expectation anchoring (IEA) index to highlight the significance of the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework to firmer anchoring of expectations and the role of repeated supply shocks in posing the risk of de-anchoring expectations.

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 49,1 MB
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author : Oliver Bachmann
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 11,79 MB
Release : 2019
Category :
ISBN :

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We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013 to June 2018. The results show that inflation expectations were 0.46 percentage points higher in Republican-dominated than in Democratic-dominated US states when Barack Obama was US president. Compared to inflation expectations in Democratic-dominated states, inflation expectations in Republican-dominated states declined by 0.73 percentage points when Donald Trump became president. We employ the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method to disentangle the extent to which political ideology and other individual characteristics predict inflation expectations: around 25% of the total difference between inflation expectations in Democraticdominated versus Republican-dominated states is based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House's occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the belief that voters' misperceptions of economic conditions decline when the president belongs to the party that voters support.