[PDF] Impacts Of The Russia Ukraine War Price Shocks On The Bangladesh Economy eBook

Author : Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 40,97 MB
Release : 2023-05-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN :

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The spike in global commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has had major adverse impacts on many developing countries, including Bangladesh, that still depend heavily on energy and food imports. Although the Bangladesh economy has rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest global trade shock has threated to increase food insecurity and poverty. This study utilizes the Bangladesh RIAPA economywide model to assess the impact of increases in global commodity prices and explores potential policy interventions to reduce negative impacts. Simulation results show that increases in international commodity prices create a GDP loss of 0.36 percent and an increase of three million in the number of poor (mainly rural poor). Energy price shocks account for most of this decline in real GDP (0.28 percent). The fertilizer subsidy helps spur agriculture production which leads to an increase in crop GDP by 0.78 percent and total agricultural GDP by 0.43 percent. Changes in policy could help mitigate the effects of these price shocks. In particular, petroleum subsidies would help increase production in both agriculture and services, leading to a 0.3 percent increase in household consumption, considerably more than the gain under a targeted cash transfer policy of equal cost. However, given that the petroleum subsidy does not specifically target the poor, it only reduces poverty by a fraction of what a targeted cash transfer would. Moreover, as illustrated by the experiences of other countries, increases in a fuel subsidy, once introduced, are likely to be very difficult to reverse. This suggests that if the major policy goal is to reduce poverty, a direct cash transfer would be more effective than the other policy options considered here. Combining these policies, however, would be even more effective than any single intervention, reducing poverty incidence by around 2.5 million people, and thereby preventing nearly all of the potential increase in poverty resulting from global price shocks.

Author : Diao, Xinshen
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 11 pages
File Size : 30,59 MB
Release : 2022-06-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN :

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Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February (Figure 1). Wide variation exists across products, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent and rice prices declining by 13 percent. The price of crude oil and natural gas has also risen substantially, while the weighted average price of fertilizer has dou-bled. With these changes in global prices, many developing countries and their development part-ners are concerned about the implications for economic stability, food security, and poverty.

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 43,14 MB
Release : 2021-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1616356154

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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Author : Glauber, Joseph W.
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 196 pages
File Size : 17,53 MB
Release : 2023-07-10
Category : Political Science
ISBN :

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When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sparking fears of a global food crisis, IFPRI responded rapidly to the need for information and policy advice to address the crisis. From the first moments of the conflict, a new IFPRI blog series provided critical information and insights into the impacts on food security, caused by rising food, fertilizer, and fuel prices and trade disruptions, for vulnerable countries and regions. This book is a compilation of those blog posts, which include analysis of trade flows, tracking of food prices and policy responses, and results of impact modeling. Together, they provide an overview of how the crisis has progressed, how the international community and individual countries responded with efforts to ensure food security, and what we are learning about the best ways to ensure food security in the aftermath of a major shock to global food systems.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 30,10 MB
Release : 2021-03
Category :
ISBN : 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 22,59 MB
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Author : International Monetary
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 125 pages
File Size : 11,86 MB
Release : 2023-02-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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Bangladesh’s robust economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was interrupted by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Rising global commodity prices, supply disruptions, and slowdown in external demand have led to a sharp widening of the current account deficit, depreciation of the Taka, and the rapid decline of foreign exchange reserves. The resulting high inflation, slow growth, and stringent measures to compress demand are disproportionately impacting the poor. Heightened global uncertainties will keep the balance of payments (BoP) under pressure for some time.

Author : Minten, Bart
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 4 pages
File Size : 44,12 MB
Release : 2018-07-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0896292851

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Teff is the staple food of Ethiopia and its biggest cash crop. Teff is nutritious and well adapted to the growing conditions in Ethiopia, but little has been invested to improve the crop’s productivity or to expand domestic or international markets. Given high levels of poverty and food insecurity in Ethiopia, coupled with the large dependency on agriculture, agricultural transformation is a critical development goal. Identifying opportunities to improve agricultural performance, and confronting the challenges to doing so, is essential. The Economics of Teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s Biggest Cash Crop examines the potential of teff and offers recommendations on how to increase production and expand markets in order to benefit both farmers and consumers.

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 339 pages
File Size : 13,48 MB
Release : 2021-08-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1464816662

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The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.