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Central banks have a profound impact on financial markets, and investors struggle to keep informed about their complex policy decisions. Technological and financial developments have transformed the US Federal Reserve Bank from a financial black box into a vocal, increasingly transparent institution—and the result is such a wealth of textual data that clues to future policy decisions may be lost among the details. This book presents a solution to this problem by keeping track of those details. Schnidman and MacMillan demonstrate how the latest advances in automated text analysis, combined with the precision of domain expertise, are the keys to understanding how central banks move markets with their words. The authors outline a method to not only examine every piece of every central bank communication, but to do it in a way that is completely comprehensive and unbiased while quickly yielding hard, quantitative data that can be put to work in modern financial models.
Central banks have a profound impact on financial markets, and investors struggle to keep informed about their complex policy decisions. Technological and financial developments have transformed the US Federal Reserve Bank from a financial black box into a vocal, increasingly transparent institution—and the result is such a wealth of textual data that clues to future policy decisions may be lost among the details. This book presents a solution to this problem by keeping track of those details. Schnidman and MacMillan demonstrate how the latest advances in automated text analysis, combined with the precision of domain expertise, are the keys to understanding how central banks move markets with their words. The authors outline a method to not only examine every piece of every central bank communication, but to do it in a way that is completely comprehensive and unbiased while quickly yielding hard, quantitative data that can be put to work in modern financial models.
Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Publisher : Page : 0 pages File Size : 40,15 MB Release : 2002 Category : Banks and Banking ISBN : 9780894991967
Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
A fast-paced, behind-closed-doors account of the Federal Reserve’s decision making during the 2008 financial crisis, showing how Fed policymakers overcame their own assumptions to contain the disaster. The financial crisis of 2008 led to the collapse of several major banks and thrust the US economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. The Federal Reserve was the agency most responsible for maintaining the nation’s economic stability. And the Fed’s Open Market Committee was a twelve-member body at the epicenter, making sense of the unfolding crisis and fashioning a response. This is the story of how they failed, learned, and staved off catastrophe. Drawing on verbatim transcripts of the committee’s closed-door meetings, Mitchel Abolafia puts readers in the room with the Federal Reserve’s senior policymaking group. Abolafia uncovers what the Fed’s policymakers knew before, during, and after the collapse. He explores how their biases and intellectual commitments both helped and hindered as they made sense of the emergency. In an original contribution to the sociology of finance, Stewards of the Market examines the social and cultural factors that shaped the Fed’s response, one marked by missed cues and analytic failures but also by successful improvisations and innovations. Ideas, traditions, and power all played their roles in the Fed’s handling of the crisis. In particular, Abolafia demonstrates that the Fed’s adherence to conflicting theories of self-correcting markets contributed to the committee’s doubts and decisions. A vivid portrait of the world’s most powerful central bank in a moment of high stakes, Stewards of the Market is rich with insights for the next financial downturn.
What do an investor trying to decide whether or not now is a good time to buy stocks, a wannabe first-time homeowner shopping around for a mortgage, and a business owner considering taking out a business loan all have in common? All three of them can be seriously affected by the decisions of the Federal Reserve'. In predicting the major stock, bond, commodity, and foreign exchange markets around the world, nothing is more important than to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). By controlling the key interest rate in the money markets and other monetary variables, the FOMC has an enormous impact on the global economy and financial markets. In fact, anyone involved in investment matters and business activities anywhere in the world needs to watch the Fed, because its policies have powerful impacts not only on the US economy but also on the global economy. For participants in the financial markets, anticipating a policy change by the Fed and positioning an investment portfolio or speculative trade accordingly can result in big gains. Conversely, failing to anticipate a move by the Fed can result in big losses or missed opportunities for gains. In this unique primer, this book will help investors to understand the FOMC's decision-making process, anticipate its moves, and profit from those insights.
What do an investor trying to decide whether or not now is a good time to buy stocks, a wannabe first-time homeowner shopping around for a mortgage, and a business owner considering taking out a business loan all have in common? All three of them can be seriously affected by the decisions of the Federal Reserve'. In predicting the major stock, bond, commodity, and foreign exchange markets around the world, nothing is more important than to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). By controlling the key interest rate in the money markets and other monetary variables, the FOMC has an enormous impact on the global economy and financial markets. In fact, anyone involved in investment matters and business activities anywhere in the world needs to watch the Fed, because its policies have powerful impacts not only on the US economy but also on the global economy. For participants in the financial markets, anticipating a policy change by the Fed and positioning an investment portfolio or speculative trade accordingly can result in big gains. Conversely, failing to anticipate a move by the Fed can result in big losses or missed opportunities for gains. In this unique primer, this book will help investors to understand the FOMC's decision-making process, anticipate its moves, and profit from those insights.
We build a new model integrating a work-horse New Keynesian model with investor risk aversion that moves with the business cycle. We show that the same habit preferences that explain the equity volatility puzzle in quarterly data also naturally explain the large high-frequency stock response to Federal Funds rate surprises. In the model, a surprise increase in the short-term interest rate lowers output and consumption relative to habit, thereby raising risk aversion and amplifying the fall in stocks. The model explains the positive correlation between changes in breakeven inflation and stock returns around monetary policy announcements with long-term inflation news.
Author : Robert R. Johnson Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional Page : 336 pages File Size : 37,15 MB Release : 2015-02-20 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0071834419
Create a winning portfolio using Federal Reserve actions as your guiding star Based on 25 years of research, Invest with the Fed reveals direct connections between successful portfolio performance and Fed policy. The authors’ analysis extends beyond U.S. equity markets to include foreign equities of both emerging and developed markets, fixed income securities, real estate, and commodities. Invest with the Fed provides guidance on navigating the investment landscape while avoiding common pitfalls, offering practical advice in an easy to understand terminology that can be applied by the casual investor or the investment professional. Robert R. Johnson, Ph.D., CFA, CAIA, is a senior executive with over fifteen years of C-level experience, performing at the highest levels of strategic positioning, leadership, and global management. He was the Senior Managing Director and Deputy CEO at the CFA Institute and is currently a finance professor at Creighton University’s School of Business. Gerald R. Jensen, PhD, CFA, is a professor in the finance department at Northern Illinois University, where he also teaches in the Executive MBA program. He is a member of the CFA Institute Council of Examiners.
Author : Christopher Leonard Publisher : Simon and Schuster Page : 384 pages File Size : 43,42 MB Release : 2023-01-10 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1982166649
The New York Times bestseller from business journalist Christopher Leonard infiltrates one of America’s most mysterious institutions—the Federal Reserve—to show how its policies spearheaded by Chairman Jerome Powell over the past ten years have accelerated income inequality and put our country’s economic stability at risk. If you asked most people what forces led to today’s unprecedented income inequality and financial crashes, no one would say the Federal Reserve. For most of its history, the Fed has enjoyed the fawning adoration of the press. When the economy grew, it was credited to the Fed. When the economy imploded in 2008, the Fed got credit for rescuing us. But here, for the first time, is the inside story of how the Fed has reshaped the American economy for the worse. It all started on November 3, 2010, when the Fed began a radical intervention called quantitative easing. In just a few short years, the Fed more than quadrupled the money supply with one goal: to encourage banks and other investors to extend more risky debt. Leaders at the Fed knew that they were undertaking a bold experiment that would produce few real jobs, with long-term risks that were hard to measure. But the Fed proceeded anyway…and then found itself trapped. Once it printed all that money, there was no way to withdraw it from circulation. The Fed tried several times, only to see the market start to crash, at which point the Fed turned the money spigot back on. That’s what it did when COVID hit, printing 300 years’ worth of money in a few short months. Which brings us to now: Ten years on, the gap between the rich and poor has grown dramatically, inflation is raging, and the stock market is driven by boom, busts, and bailouts. Middle-class Americans seem stuck in a stage of permanent stagnation, with wage gains wiped out by high prices even as they remain buried under credit card debt, car loan debt, and student debt. Meanwhile, the “too big to fail” banks remain bigger and more powerful than ever while the richest Americans enjoy the gains of a hyper-charged financial system. The Lords of Easy Money “skillfully” (The Wall Street Journal) tells the “fascinating” (The New York Times) tale of how quantitative easing is imperiling the American economy through the story of the one man who tried to warn us. This is the first inside story of how we really got here—and why our economy rests on such unstable ground.
In predicting the major stock, bond, commodity, and foreign exchange markets around the world, nothing is more important than to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets the course of monetary policy in the United States. By controlling the key interest rate in the money markets and other monetary variables, the FOMC has an enormous impact on the global economy and financial markets.Watching the Fed closely are not only Wall Street's economists and investment strategists but also reporters and commentators at the major financial news organizations. In fact, anyone involved in investment matters and business activities anywhere in the world needs to watch the Fed, because its policies have powerful impacts not only on the US economy but also on the global economy.For participants in the financial markets, anticipating a policy change by the Fed and positioning an investment portfolio or speculative trade accordingly can result in big gains. Conversely, failing to anticipate a move by the Fed can result in big losses or missed opportunities for gains. In this unique primer, Dr. Edward Yardeni, one of the world's most experienced and widely followed "Fed watchers," helps investors to understand the FOMC's decision-making process, anticipate its moves, and profit from those insights.