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This book demonstrates different methods (as well as real-life examples) of handling uncertainty like probability and Bayesian theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, certainty factor and evidential reasoning, fuzzy logic-based approach, utility theory and expected utility theory. At the end, highlights will be on the use of these methods which can help to make decisions under uncertain situations. This book assists scholars and students who might like to learn about this area as well as others who may have begun without a formal presentation. The book is comprehensive, but it prohibits unnecessary mathematics.
The articles in this volume deal with the main inferential methods that can be applied to different kinds of experimental evidence. These contributions - accompanied with critical comments - by renowned scholars in the field of philosophy of science aim at removing the traditional opposition between inductivists and deductivists. They explore the different methods of explanation and justification in the sciences in different contexts and with different objectives. The volume contains contributions on methods of the sciences, especially on induction, deduction, abduction, laws, probability and explanation, ranging from logic, mathematics, natural to the social sciences. They present a highly topical pluralist re-evaluation of methodological and foundational procedures and reasoning, e.g. focusing in Bayesianism and Artificial Intelligence. They document the second international conference in Vienna on "Induction and Deduction in the Sciences" as part of the Scientific Network on "Historical and Contemporary Perspectives of Philosophy of Science in Europe", funded by the European Science Foundation (ESF).
This book demonstrates different methods (as well as real-life examples) of handling uncertainty like probability and Bayesian theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, certainty factor and evidential reasoning, fuzzy logic-based approach, utility theory and expected utility theory. At the end, highlights will be on the use of these methods which can help to make decisions under uncertain situations. This book assists scholars and students who might like to learn about this area as well as others who may have begun without a formal presentation. The book is comprehensive, but it prohibits unnecessary mathematics.
The representation of uncertainty is a central issue in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and is being addressed in many different ways. Each approach has its proponents, and each has had its detractors. However, there is now an in creasing move towards the belief that an eclectic approach is required to represent and reason under the many facets of uncertainty. We believe that the time is ripe for a wide ranging, yet accessible, survey of the main for malisms. In this book, we offer a broad perspective on uncertainty and approach es to managing uncertainty. Rather than provide a daunting mass of techni cal detail, we have focused on the foundations and intuitions behind the various schools. The aim has been to present in one volume an overview of the major issues and decisions to be made in representing uncertain knowl edge. We identify the central role of managing uncertainty to AI and Expert Systems, and provide a comprehensive introduction to the different aspects of uncertainty. We then describe the rationales, advantages and limitations of the major approaches that have been taken, using illustrative examples. The book ends with a review of the lessons learned and current research di rections in the field. The intended readership will include researchers and practitioners in volved in the design and implementation of Decision Support Systems, Ex pert Systems, other Knowledge-Based Systems and in Cognitive Science.
This book develops a framework that shows how uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AI) expands and generalizes traditional AI. It explores the uncertainties of knowledge and intelligence. The authors focus on the importance of natural language – the carrier of knowledge and intelligence, and introduce efficient physical methods for data mining amd control. In this new edition, we have more in-depth description of the models and methods, of which the mathematical properties are proved strictly which make these theories and methods more complete. The authors also highlight their latest research results.
This book constitutes the proceedings of the 12th IFIP TC 8 International Conference, CISIM 2013, held in Cracow, Poland, in September 2013. The 44 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from over 60 submissions. They are organized in topical sections on biometric and biomedical applications; pattern recognition and image processing; various aspects of computer security, networking, algorithms, and industrial applications. The book also contains full papers of a keynote speech and the invited talk.
Probability is the bedrock of machine learning. You cannot develop a deep understanding and application of machine learning without it. Cut through the equations, Greek letters, and confusion, and discover the topics in probability that you need to know. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons, you will discover the importance of probability to machine learning, Bayesian probability, entropy, density estimation, maximum likelihood, and much more.
In this book the consequent use of probability theory is proposed for handling uncertainty in expert systems. It is shown that methods violating this suggestion may have dangerous consequences (e.g., the Dempster-Shafer rule and the method used in MYCIN). The necessity of some requirements for a correct combining of uncertain information in expert systems is demonstrated and suitable rules are provided. The possibility is taken into account that interval estimates are given instead of exact information about probabilities. For combining information containing interval estimates rules are provided which are useful in many cases.
This text is intended to highlight the significance of uncertainty in the management of information, introduce methods of modelling uncertain information and discuss current and potential applications of such methods in information systems. It provides the reader with the following: a discussion of the kinds of information that are problematical; a discussion of the ways this impinges upon systems, eg. null values in relational databases; heuristics in rule-based decision-support systems; vagueness of keywords used in information retrieval; and appropriateness of cases selected in case-based decision-support. It also provides an exposition of means of modelling uncertain information including probability theory, possibility theory, fuzzy set theory and non-classical logics, and a review of the current and potential applications of handling uncertainty in information systems.
3. Textbook for a course in expert systems,if an emphasis is placed on Chapters 1 to 3 and on a selection of material from Chapters 4 to 7. There is also the option of using an additional commercially available sheU for a programming project. In assigning a programming project, the instructor may use any part of a great variety of books covering many subjects, such as car repair. Instructions for mostofthe "weekend mechanic" books are close stylisticaUy to expert system rules. Contents Chapter 1 gives an introduction to the subject matter; it briefly presents basic concepts, history, and some perspectives ofexpert systems. Then itpresents the architecture of an expert system and explains the stages of building an expert system. The concept of uncertainty in expert systems and the necessity of deal ing with the phenomenon are then presented. The chapter ends with the descrip tion of taxonomy ofexpert systems. Chapter 2 focuses on knowledge representation. Four basic ways to repre sent knowledge in expert systems are presented: first-order logic, production sys tems, semantic nets, and frames. Chapter 3 contains material about knowledge acquisition. Among machine learning techniques, a methodofrule learning from examples is explained in de tail. Then problems ofrule-base verification are discussed. In particular, both consistency and completeness oftherule base are presented.