[PDF] Global Uncertainty And The Global Economy eBook

Author : Wensheng Kang
Publisher :
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 37,47 MB
Release : 2016
Category :
ISBN :

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We constructed a new index of global uncertainty using the first principal component of the stock market volatility for the largest 15 economies. We evaluate the impact of global uncertainty on the global economy using the new global database from Global Economic Indicators (DGEI), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Global uncertainty shocks are less frequent than those observed in data on the U.S. economy. Global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation, global growth and in the global interest rate (based on official/policy interest rates set by central banks). Our decomposition of global uncertainty shocks shows that global financial uncertainty shocks are more important than non-financial shocks. Over the period 1981 to 2014 global financial uncertainty forecasts 18.26% and 14.95% of the variation in global growth and global inflation respectively. The non-financial uncertainty shocks have insignificant effects on global growth. The model for global variables shows more protracted and substantial negative effects of uncertainty on growth and inflation than does a panel model estimating associations of local country-level variables. This outcome is reversed for the effect of uncertainty on official interest rate.

Author : Wensheng Kang
Publisher :
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 26,42 MB
Release : 2017
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ISBN :

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Global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation, global growth and in the global interest rate. Over 1981 to 2014 global financial uncertainty forecasts 18.26% and 14.95% of the variation in global growth and global inflation respectively. Global uncertainty shocks have more protracted, statistically significant and substantial effects on global growth, inflation and interest rate than U.S. uncertainty shocks. U.S. uncertainty lags global uncertainty by one month. When controlling for domestic uncertainty, the decline in output following a rise in global uncertainty is statistically significant in each country, with the exception of the decline for China. The effects for the U.S. and for China are also relatively small. For most economies, a positive shock to global uncertainty has a depressing effect on prices and official interest rates. Exceptions are Brazil, Mexico and Russia, economies with large capital outflows during financial crises. Decomposition of global uncertainty shocks shows that global financial uncertainty shocks are more important than non-financial shocks.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 15,91 MB
Release : 2019-04-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484397487

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After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.

Author : Shiro Armstrong
Publisher : ANU Press
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 21,14 MB
Release : 2018-01-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1760461768

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The Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) conference series has been at the forefront of analysing challenges facing the economies of East Asia and the Pacific since its first meeting in Tokyo in January 1968. The 38th PAFTAD conference met at a key time to consider international economic integration. Earlier in the year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and the United States elected Donald Trump as their next president on the back of an inward-looking ‘America First’ promise. Brexit and President Trump represent a growing, and worrying, trend towards protectionism in the North Atlantic countries that have led the process of globalisation since the end of the Second World War. The chapters in the volume describe the state of play in Asian economic integration but, more importantly, look forward to the region’s future, and the role it might play in defending the global system that has underwritten its historic rise. Asia has the potential to stand as a bulwark against the dual threats of North Atlantic protectionism and slowing trade growth, but collective leadership will be needed regionally and difficult domestic reforms will be required in each country.

Author : Francois Trahan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 27,3 MB
Release : 2011-07-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1118134095

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Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 339 pages
File Size : 45,32 MB
Release : 2021-08-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1464816662

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The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 50,95 MB
Release : 2017-10-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484316592

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Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.

Author : Mats Benner
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 46,99 MB
Release : 2013-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1781952019

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ÔThis outstanding book examines whether and how the finance-led growth model can be transformed. The authorsÕ insightful analyses make significant contributions to our understanding of the global economic crisis since 2008 and the search for possible new paths beyond the crisis.Õ Ð Stein Kuhnle, University of Bergen, Norway and Hertie School of Governance, Germany ÔThis book sheds a powerful light on the current uncertainty of the world economy. Indispensable reading for understanding the roots of the crisis and the possible ways out.Õ Ð Carlota Perez, Technological University of Tallinn, Estonia and London School of Economics, UK This timely and far-reaching book addresses the long-term impact of the recent global economic crisis. New light is shed on the crisis and its historical roots, and resolutions for a more robust, resilient future socio-economic model are prescribed. Leading experts across a range of field including macroeconomics, politics, economic history, social policy, linguistics and global economic relations address key issues emerging from the crisis. They consider whether a new era in interactions between state, society and markets is actually dawning, and whether the finance-led economic growth model will be transformed into a new and more stable model. The role of the crisis in economy, polity and society, in shaking up existing institutional regimes and in paving the way for new ones is also discussed. Post-crisis combinations of state-society-economy relations are identified, and the question of whether the crisis has led to the reconsideration of economic relations and their institutional embeddedness is explored. This challenging book will provide a thought provoking read for academics, students and researchers focusing on economics, political science and sociology. Policymakers in the fields of economic, industrial and social policy will also find this book to be an informative point of reference.

Author : S. McBride
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 254 pages
File Size : 40,24 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9401002517

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Global Instability: Uncertainty and New Visions in Political Economy presents a series of papers that address the political consequences of globalization for states and their populations, while exploring the issue of alternatives to the model of globalization we are presently experiencing. The focus moves from the world of international agreements to the national and sub-national dilemmas that are posed by attempting to manage a set of global developments within a given territory. The initial chapter, by Daniel Drache, explores a still-born post-war international organization, the International Trade Organization, that offers a different vision of how a globally integrated economy might operate. A number of papers then explore the challenges posed by today's globalization, including currency instability in an environment of financial deregulation, the rights conferred on investors by the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the progressive liberalization of trade in services built into the General Agreement on Trade in Services.

Author : Andrew Vonnegut
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 333 pages
File Size : 13,55 MB
Release : 2017-09-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1442277300

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This comprehensive and informed text offers a practical introduction to the workings of the global economy. Drawing on his hands-on experience in international finance and economic policy, Andrew Vonnegut clearly explains economic concepts and illustrates them with cogent case studies. He describes the global economy by combining principles of economics with investment finance, decision theory, economic history, behavioral psychology, and accounting. Within a rigorous framework that sheds light on the reasons behind international economic events and trends, he brings the people, institutions, incentives, and money flows of the global economy to life. Oriented toward professionals and students, working or intending to work in the global economy, this book fills an important void. It will be invaluable for practitioners in business, investment finance, public policy, consulting, global studies, and journalism. Providing the tools needed to understand international economics, Vonnegut enlightens readers on the people, behaviors, and institutions behind trade and investment flows in today’s globalized economies, and how they all contribute to the volatile and dynamic world we are experiencing.