[PDF] Forecasting International Crises Using Optimal Control Methodology eBook

Author : Jerome L. Stein
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 29,42 MB
Release : 2006-04-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0199280576

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This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth and current account balances, in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control the author derives benchmarks for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both thereturn on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate - the "natural real exchange rate" NATREX - is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions.* What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis?* What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess" debt that increases the probability of or a debt crisis?* What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate?The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises and debt crises in emerging markets.

Author : Ding Wang
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 283 pages
File Size : 16,53 MB
Release : 2023-01-21
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9811972915

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This book intends to report new optimal control results with critic intelligence for complex discrete-time systems, which covers the novel control theory, advanced control methods, and typical applications for wastewater treatment systems. Therein, combining with artificial intelligence techniques, such as neural networks and reinforcement learning, the novel intelligent critic control theory as well as a series of advanced optimal regulation and trajectory tracking strategies are established for discrete-time nonlinear systems, followed by application verifications to complex wastewater treatment processes. Consequently, developing such kind of critic intelligence approaches is of great significance for nonlinear optimization and wastewater recycling. The book is likely to be of interest to researchers and practitioners as well as graduate students in automation, computer science, and process industry who wish to learn core principles, methods, algorithms, and applications in the field of intelligent optimal control. It is beneficial to promote the development of intelligent optimal control approaches and the construction of high-level intelligent systems.

Author : Theo S. Eicher
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 32,8 MB
Release : 2018-03-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484346815

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Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.

Author : Derong Liu
Publisher : Springer
Page : 609 pages
File Size : 39,85 MB
Release : 2017-01-04
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 3319508156

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This book covers the most recent developments in adaptive dynamic programming (ADP). The text begins with a thorough background review of ADP making sure that readers are sufficiently familiar with the fundamentals. In the core of the book, the authors address first discrete- and then continuous-time systems. Coverage of discrete-time systems starts with a more general form of value iteration to demonstrate its convergence, optimality, and stability with complete and thorough theoretical analysis. A more realistic form of value iteration is studied where value function approximations are assumed to have finite errors. Adaptive Dynamic Programming also details another avenue of the ADP approach: policy iteration. Both basic and generalized forms of policy-iteration-based ADP are studied with complete and thorough theoretical analysis in terms of convergence, optimality, stability, and error bounds. Among continuous-time systems, the control of affine and nonaffine nonlinear systems is studied using the ADP approach which is then extended to other branches of control theory including decentralized control, robust and guaranteed cost control, and game theory. In the last part of the book the real-world significance of ADP theory is presented, focusing on three application examples developed from the authors’ work: • renewable energy scheduling for smart power grids;• coal gasification processes; and• water–gas shift reactions. Researchers studying intelligent control methods and practitioners looking to apply them in the chemical-process and power-supply industries will find much to interest them in this thorough treatment of an advanced approach to control.

Author : Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 1792 pages
File Size : 41,23 MB
Release : 2013-11-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1466647086

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"This book explores the latest empirical research and best real-world practices for preventing, weathering, and recovering from disasters such as earthquakes or tsunamis to nuclear disasters and cyber terrorism"--Provided by publisher.

Author :
Publisher :
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 29,51 MB
Release : 1978
Category :
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This paper investigates the feasibility of using stability analysis as a medium for predicting international crises. Five international crises that occurred within the last decade were examined using WEIS data on conflictful and cooperative acts. Nine variations on the basic Richardson arms race model theme were used to fit the interactive behavior of the participants, of each crisis and to obtain estimates of the relevant parameters. The parameter estimates for the best fitting models were used to assess the stability of the interaction pattern in each crisis. In general, (using 95% confidence intervals), these patterns were found to be unstable. Due to data limitations, only one 'control' case could be examined; viz., we examined the interactions pattern of a pair of nations during a normal or non-crisis period. While the results are obviously highly tentative, they suggest that non-crisis periods probably do evidence stable reaction patterns. It would appear then that stability analysis may be of some value in forecasting international crises. (Author).

Author : Qinglai Wei
Publisher : Springer
Page : 242 pages
File Size : 16,9 MB
Release : 2017-06-13
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 981104080X

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This book presents a class of novel, self-learning, optimal control schemes based on adaptive dynamic programming techniques, which quantitatively obtain the optimal control schemes of the systems. It analyzes the properties identified by the programming methods, including the convergence of the iterative value functions and the stability of the system under iterative control laws, helping to guarantee the effectiveness of the methods developed. When the system model is known, self-learning optimal control is designed on the basis of the system model; when the system model is not known, adaptive dynamic programming is implemented according to the system data, effectively making the performance of the system converge to the optimum. With various real-world examples to complement and substantiate the mathematical analysis, the book is a valuable guide for engineers, researchers, and students in control science and engineering.

Author : Fuchun Sun
Publisher : Springer
Page : 626 pages
File Size : 22,48 MB
Release : 2017-07-07
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9811052301

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Third International Conference on Cognitive Systems and Signal Processing, ICCSIP2016, held in Beijing, China, in December 2016. The 59 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 171 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on Control and Decision; Image and Video; Machine Learning; Robotics; Cognitive System; Cognitive Signal Processing.