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Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

Author : Ms.Martine Guerguil
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 49,11 MB
Release : 2016-01-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513581465

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This paper assesses the impact of different types of flexible fiscal rules on the procyclicality of fiscal policy with propensity scores-matching techniques, thus mitigating traditional self-selection problems. It finds that not all fiscal rules have the same impact: the design matters. Specifically, investment-friendly rules reduce the procyclicality of both overall and investment spending. The effect appears stronger in bad times and when the rule is enacted at the national level. The introduction of escape clauses in fiscal rules does not seem to affect the cyclical stance of public spending. The inclusion of cyclical adjustment features in spending rules yields broadly similar results. The results are mixed for cyclically-adjusted budget balance rules: enacting the latter is associated with countercyclical movements in overall spending, but with procyclical changes in investment spending. Structural factors, such as past debt, the level of development, the volatility of terms of trade, natural resources endowment, government stability, and the legal enforcement and monitoring arrangements backing the rule also influence the link between fiscal rules and countercyclicality. The results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications.

Fiscal Rules at a Glance

Author : Mrs.Nina Budina
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 62 pages
File Size : 31,94 MB
Release : 2012-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1616359102

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This paper provides country-specific information on fiscal rules in use in 81 countries from 1985 to end-September 2012. It serves as background material and update of the July 2012 Working Paper “Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis—Toward the ‘Next Generation’ Rules: A New Dataset” and is also available in an easy accessible electronic data visualization tool (http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/FiscalRules/map/map.htm.).The dataset covers four types of rules: budget balance rules, debt rules, expenditure rules, and revenue rules, applying to the central or general government or the public sector. It also presents details on various characteristics of rules, such as their legal basis, coverage, escape clauses, as well as key supporting features such as independent monitoring bodies.

Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 73 pages
File Size : 11,38 MB
Release : 2009-12-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498335160

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The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation, discusses the design and implementation of rules based on a new data base spanning the whole Fund membership, and explores the fiscal framework that could be adopted as countries emerge from the crisis.

Expenditure Rules

Author : Till Cordes
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 50,67 MB
Release : 2015-02-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498343317

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This paper provides new evidence on the effectiveness of expenditure rules. The analysis is based on a unique dataset covering all countries with national and supranational fiscal rules, including 33 expenditure rules, between 1985 and 2013. It contributes to the existing literature on fiscal rules in two main ways. First, it is the most comprehensive assessment of compliance with rules and of the potential role of expenditure rules, in particular regarding long-term sustainability. Second, it analyzes whether expenditure rules are associated with changes in public investment and its efficiency.

Fiscal Rules, Public Investment, and Growth

Author : Luis Serven
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 13,16 MB
Release : 2016
Category :
ISBN :

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Solvency is an intertemporal concept, relating to the present value of revenues and expenditures, and encompassing both assets and liabilities. But the standard practice among policy makers, financial market participants and international financial institutions is to assess the strength of the fiscal accounts solely on the basis of the cash deficit. Short-term cash flows matter, but a preponderant focus on them can encourage governments to invest too little, especially during episodes of fiscal tightening. This has potentially adverse consequences for growth and, paradoxically, even for fiscal solvency itself. The paper offers an overview of the links between fiscal targets, public investment, and public sector solvency. After reviewing the international experience with public investment under fiscal adjustment, the paper lays out an analytical framework to illustrate the consequences of using the public deficit as a guide to solvency. The paper then discusses some alternatives to conventional cash deficit rules and their implications for investment and fiscal solvency.

Fiscal Rules to Tame the Political Budget Cycle

Author : Lorenzo Forni
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 48,1 MB
Release : 2017-01-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 147556998X

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The paper provides evidence that fiscal rules can limit the political budget cycle. It focuses on the application of the Italian fiscal rule at the sub-national level over the period 2004-2006 and shows that: 1) municipalities are subject to political budget cycles in capital spending; 2) the Italian subnational fiscal rule introduced in 1999 has been enforced by the central government; 3) municipalities subject to the fiscal rule show more limited political budget cycles than municipalities not subject to the rule. In order to identify the effect, we rely on the fact that the domestic fiscal rule does not apply to municipalities below 5,000 inhabitants. We find that the political budget cycle increases real capital spending by about 35 percent on average in the years prior to municipal elections and that the sub-national fiscal rule reduces these figures by about two thirds.

The Economics of Public Spending

Author : David Miles
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 20,58 MB
Release : 2003-03-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780191593284

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The Economics of Public Spending investigates the extent of government involvement in the economy, details its rational, and traces its historical record. The book unites articles previously published in Fiscal Studies, each one addressing a different area of expenditure and written by an economist specializing in that field. They describe both the data on public expenditure and the theory relevant to understanding the policy issues. A new introduction investigates the overall role of the public sector and discusses the general theory of public expenditure. In providing a detailed analysis of public expenditure, the book makes an important contribution to the economics literature. There are no other texts with this breadth of coverage or depth of analysis. Insights are provided into both the policy issues, cross-country comparisons of expenditure, and alternative approaches to economic analysis. The chapters apply the tools of orthodox public finance, public choice, modern public economics, and game theory to reach a range of policy proposals and conclusions. These demonstrate the range and potential of economic analysis when applied to these important issues.

Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis

Author : Ms.Andrea Schaechter
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 41,97 MB
Release : 2012-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475505353

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Strengthening fiscal frameworks, in particular fiscal rules, has emerged as a key response to the fiscal legacy of the crisis. This paper takes stock of fiscal rules in use around the world, compiles a dataset - covering national and supranational fiscal rules, in 81 countries from 1985 to end-March 2012 - and presents details about the rules’ key design elements, particularly in support of enforcement. This information is summarized in a set of fiscal rules indices. Three key findings emerge: (i) many new fiscal rules have been adopted and existing ones strengthened in response to the crisis; (ii) the number of fiscal rules and the comprehensiveness of the design features in emerging economies has caught up to those in advanced economies; and (iii) the "next-generation" fiscal rules are increasingly complex as they combine the objectives of sustainability and with the need for flexibility in response to shocks, thereby creating new challenges for implementation, communication, and monitoring.

Fiscal Rules in a Volatile World

Author : Jorge Restrepo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 30,91 MB
Release : 2011-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1455222984

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It is widely agreed that a fiscal rule should boost discipline and credibility, reduce macroeconomic volatility, and be easily understood. To support such goals, a government may run structural surpluses and accumulate a precautionary cushion of assets on behalf of agents who do not enjoy access to capital markets. As an additional criterion, that level of assets should be bounded. We provide an example of a structural surplus rule that satisfies all such criteria. In our general equilibrium simulations, we show that such a rule benefits credit-constrained consumers but may hurt others.

Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Policy

Author : Mr.Evan Tanner
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 21,61 MB
Release : 2003-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451875223

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Fiscal rules—legal restrictions on government borrowing, spending, or debt accumulation (like the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act in the United States)—have recently been adopted or considered in several countries, both industrial and developing. Previous literature stresses that such laws restrict countercyclical government borrowing, thus preventing intertemporal equalization of marginal deadweight losses of taxation—an idea associated with Frank Ramsey. However, such literature typically abstracts from persistent current deficits that are financed by future tax increases. Eliminating such deficits may substantially reduce tax rate variability—the very goal of countercyclical borrowing—even over a finite horizon. Thus, Gramm-Rudman-Hollings and Frank Ramsey are not necessarily enemies and they may even be good friends!