[PDF] Feeling The Heat Adapting To Climate Change In The Middle East And Central Asia eBook
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Author : Mr. Christoph Duenwald Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 110 pages File Size : 32,75 MB Release : 2022-03-30 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1513591096
Climate change is among humanity’s greatest challenges, and the Middle East and Central Asia region is on the frontlines of its human, economic, and physical ramifications. Much of the region is located in already difficult climate zones, where global warming exacerbates desertification, water stress, and rising sea levels. This trend entails fundamental economic disruptions, endangers food security, and undermines public health, with ripple effects on poverty and inequality, displacement, and conflict. Considering the risks posed by climate change, the central message of this departmental paper is that adapting to climate change by boosting resilience to climate stresses and disasters is a critical priority for the region’s economies.
Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for the countries of the region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA). The next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change.
Author : William R. Sutton Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 201 pages File Size : 20,6 MB Release : 2013-04-04 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0821397699
The risks and opportunities of climate change for agriculture can be effectively dealt only by aligning policies, developing institutional capabilities, and investing in infrastructure and farms, as per the experiences of Albania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan.
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
Nearly all countries in the Middle East and Central Asia have pledged to contain greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Paris Agreement. The purpose of this paper is to identify the menu of fiscal policy options which would allow the region to fulfil its missions reduction commitment. Specifically, the paper examines and estimates the tradeoff between two broad categories of fiscal policies: public investments in renewable sources of energy and measures that raise the effective price of fossil fuels. Such a dichotomy captures the key medium-term macroeconomic and long-term intergenerational trade-offs that are arguably the most pertinent for the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia where governments are likely to play a leading role in the low-carbon transition. At one end of this tradeoff, a gradual removal of all fuel subsidies and, in addition, a phased introduction of a carbon tax of $8 per metric-ton of CO2-equivalent in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) and $4 in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) over the next eight years could achieve the region’s 2030 emissions abatement goals without additional investments in renewables. T Alternatively, additional combined public investments of close to US$900 billion in renewable sources of energy between 2023 and 2030 would allow achieving the region’s emissions reduction targets with fuel subsidies reduced by two thirds and without any carbon tax. In practice, most countries are likely to choose a mix of these policies based on their individual circumstances. Importantly, the deployment of non-fiscal mitigation policies—such as tightening of environmental regulations, such as raising emissions standards, or incentivizing green private investments—could play an important role in reducing the required fiscal effort and improving the tradeoff described above. Global and regional initiatives to provide affordable financial support and technological assistance would be equally important in improving the region’s economic options. Regardless of the chosen strategy, delaying the rollout of mitigation policies would make achieving the emissions reduction targets more difficult and costly. Therefore, an early start will be essential to tread a smoother path toward a low-carbon future in the Middle East and Central Asia.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 59 pages File Size : 33,29 MB Release : 2022-10-31 Category : Business & Economics ISBN :
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 63 pages File Size : 28,59 MB Release : 2023-10-12 Category : Business & Economics ISBN :
Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.
Author : Asian Development Bank Publisher : Asian Development Bank Page : 262 pages File Size : 23,48 MB Release : 2023-04-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9292701061
The report's overarching conclusion is that CAREC has a unique and urgent opportunity to chart a course of proactive, systematic, and strategic engagement in supporting its member countries in reinforcing, modifying, and implementing existing national strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation, and in developing a range of regional actions in response to the regional nature of many climate change impacts and solutions.
A fragile recovery continues in the Middle East and Central Asia region. The region has made good progress since the beginning of the year, but new challenges have emerged. They include a pandemic wave in countries with weak vaccination progress and rising inflation, which has contributed to declining monetary policy space, adding to the difficulties posed by limited fiscal policy space. Additionally, divergent recoveries and concerns about economic scarring persist. Inequities are also on the rise, and countries will need to tackle the pandemic’s impact on debt, labor markets, and the corporate sector. Countries will face difficult tradeoffs amid this challenging environment as they continue to manage the current crisis. Ramping up vaccine acquisition and distribution remains the most urgent short-term priority. Additional support should be well targeted, and central banks may need to raise interest rates if inflation expectations start to increase. Improving policy frameworks will be important to reduce policy tradeoffs. Preparing for a new chapter by investing in a transformational recovery will be vital to the region’s future. Important priorities include reorienting the role of the state toward health, education, and social safety nets; leveraging global trends like digitalization; and investing in climate-resilient technology.
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are exposed to significant fiscal risks. This paper analyzes the sources of these fiscal risks in 17 low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region, excluding high-income Gulf countries (MENAPEG), and discusses avenues for reform to strengthen fiscal risk management. The materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG has been driven by macroeconomic shocks, contingent liabilities, and tail-risk events. The region has a track record of volatile economic growth and sharp exchange rate movements. High dependence on hydrocarbon revenue among MENAPEG oil and gas exporters and pervasive universal subsidies generate considerable budgetary exposure to swings in commodity prices. Substantial government involvement in the economy and large state ownership of firms and banks exposes several MENAPEG countries to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and the financial sector. Lastly, the region’s history of social unrest and conflicts together with tail-risk events such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and natural disasters and climate change, have been important sources of fiscal risks. Many of the factors historically associated with the materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG countries are likely to remain sources of vulnerability in the future, raising the need for robust fiscal risk management frameworks. Policy reform can strengthen fiscal risk management in MENAPEG. This paper describes precedents where progress is made and provides a broad analytical framework for policymakers to build upon to fully embrace fiscal risk management in all its dimensions. Going forward, it is crucial for national authorities to enhance their capacity to identify, quantify, and assess risk factors and their budget’s exposure to them. This should be followed by thorough fiscal risk analysis to inform policy decisions to mitigate risks. Where risks cannot be mitigated or are judged to be acceptable, countries should consider adopting appropriate medium-term fiscal frameworks to build buffers to deal with them.