[PDF] Extreme Precipitation Events Spatio Temporal Connections Forecasting Generation Impact Analysis Vulnerability And Risk Assessment eBook

Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 593 pages
File Size : 43,81 MB
Release : 2012-05-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1107025060

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Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.

Author : Josiah Daniel Smith
Publisher :
Page : 202 pages
File Size : 11,78 MB
Release : 2005
Category : Drought forecasting
ISBN :

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Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region in the Northern Great Plains (PPR-NGP) of the United States frequently fluctuates from drought to deluge. The historical hydrologic record for this region reveals periods of intense, prolonged drought intermingled with rapid and destructive flooding. Drought or flooding is initiated and sustained by deficit or surplus precipitation, respectively. The weather events that accompany these disasters are characterized by large spatial and temporal variations from normal in the frequency and intensity. The unique hydrology and geology of the region makes the PPR-NGP highly sensitive to these weather perturbations. The future looks to bring more warming and thus more intense precipitation to the region. As the frequency of extreme precipitation events rises, the magnitude and occurrence of floods and droughts will be elevated. The objective of this research was to determine the factors controlling precipitation trends, drought, and flooding in the study area. Also, the weather conditions preceding the disastrous events were observed and characterized. The analysis was focused on the effects of varying precipitation intensity, frequency, and antecedent conditions as they pertain to PPR-NGP drought and Red River flooding. The results may be applied to better predict the future trends of flood and drought response to extreme precipitation. Data mining was performed on available weather station observations to extract significant information and use it to derive valuable insight into PPR-NGP drought and flooding behavior. Hydrometeorological indices calculated over various timescales were applied to assess the intensity and frequency of rainfall, the change in snow depths, and the deviation from normal precipitation. Flood discharge hydrographs were classified based on shape parameters and matched to precipitation characteristics. Spatiotemporal and statistical operations were employed to determine the controlling factors of precipitation trends, drought, summer floods, and spring floods in the PPR-NGP and Red River Basin. Current precipitation and stream flow trends indicate the potential for enhanced flood and drought activity. Precipitation intensity and frequency are ascending, but the intensity is increasing more than the frequency of monthly events. The result is that Red River discharge rates are rising six times faster than total precipitation over the basin. The rise in stream flow rates can be explained by elevated precipitation intensity and to some extent precipitation frequency during key flood months. However, the most critical flood month of April has a decreasing total precipitation trend and yet the highest rise in discharge rate. These trends come about because overall fall and winter precipitation rates are on the rise. The antecedent precipitation is stored on and in the frozen ground until released by the spring thaw, which usually takes place in April. Thus, the risk for larger April floods is affected not by a single month but by a half year's worth of increasing precipitation conditions. Large fluctuations in monthly drought conditions were determined to be equally controlled by both the frequency and intensity of precipitation events. Extreme drought took a minimum of two to three months both to develop and dissipate from a semi-arid state. Though, the biggest shifts in month-to-month conditions were observed when both precipitation intensity and frequency were well above or below normal over the same area. So the onset or end of an extreme drought took place more rapidly when the intensity and frequency changes were great and harmonized. Similarly, the spatial extent of the most intense (on average) drought cells was surprisingly little, because the overlap of large precipitation intensity and frequency shifts typically occurred over a small area. Also, the drought duration usually increased when severity reached a higher level, so that multiple months of moderate drought reduced the overall intensity for all but the most severe parts of the cells. The intensity of precipitation events was the main controlling factor in Red River summer flood occurrence and magnitude. Antecedent conditions were not essential to the development of summer floods. Conditions were often near normal prior to a flood because more of the normal rain fell in a fewer number of more intense events. Conversely, the magnitude and occurrence of spring floods was controlled by antecedent precipitation and fast snow melt rates. A significant snow pack was observed prior to both major and minor floods, while a non-flood year had little snow pack over the basin. Fall soil moisture, winter snowfall, and a fast rate of stored water release all had to be present at sufficient levels to trigger a large flood response.

Author : Stephane Hallegatte
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 227 pages
File Size : 28,90 MB
Release : 2015-11-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1464806748

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Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

Author : Zoé A. Hamstead
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 190 pages
File Size : 47,37 MB
Release : 2021-04-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 3030631311

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This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change.

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 187 pages
File Size : 24,18 MB
Release : 2016-07-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 0309380979

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As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 253 pages
File Size : 22,4 MB
Release : 2013-02-14
Category : Science
ISBN : 0309278562

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Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

Author : Reinhard Mechler
Publisher : Springer
Page : 557 pages
File Size : 41,83 MB
Release : 2018-11-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 3319720260

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This book provides an authoritative insight on the Loss and Damage discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research and policy linked to this discourse and articulating its multiple concepts, principles and methods. Written by leading researchers and practitioners, it identifies practical and evidence-based policy options to inform the discourse and climate negotiations. With climate-related risks on the rise and impacts being felt around the globe has come the recognition that climate mitigation and adaptation may not be enough to manage the effects from anthropogenic climate change. This recognition led to the creation of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage in 2013, a climate policy mechanism dedicated to dealing with climate-related effects in highly vulnerable countries that face severe constraints and limits to adaptation. Endorsed in 2015 by the Paris Agreement and effectively considered a third pillar of international climate policy, debate and research on Loss and Damage continues to gain enormous traction. Yet, concepts, methods and tools as well as directions for policy and implementation have remained contested and vague. Suitable for researchers, policy-advisors, practitioners and the interested public, the book furthermore: • discusses the political, legal, economic and institutional dimensions of the issue• highlights normative questions central to the discourse • provides a focus on climate risks and climate risk management. • presents salient case studies from around the world.