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Internationalization of the world economy has made trade a key factor in the growth potential of nearly every economy. Hence, economists have become increasingly interested in the determinants of international trade and competitiveness. Empirical Models i
Author : Robert E. Baldwin Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 392 pages File Size : 47,92 MB Release : 2008-04-15 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0226036510
Interest in U.S. trade policy has been stimulated in recent years by the massive American trade deficit, by the belief that intervention by foreign governments in international markets has given other countries a competitive edge over the United States, and by concern about the increase in protectionism among industrial countries. In turn, major analytical developments in international economics have revolutionized trade theory, broadening its scope both by introducing in a more formal manner such concepts as imperfect competition, increasing returns, product differentiation, and learning effects and by including the study of political and economic factors that shape trade policy decisions. This collection of papers—the result of a conference held by the NBER—applies these "new" trade theories to existing world cases and also presents complementary empirical studies that are grounded in more traditional trade theories. The volume is divided into four parts. The papers in part 1 consider the problem of imperfect competition, empirically assessing the economic effect of various trade policies introduced in industries in which the "new" trade theory seems to apply. Those in part 2 isolate the effects of protection from the influences of the many economic changes that accompany actual periods of protection and also examine how the effects from exogenous changes in economic conditions vary with the form of protection. Part 3 provides new empirical evidence on the effect of foreign production by a country's firms on the home country's exports. Finally, in part 4, two key bilateral issues are analyzed: recent U.S.-Japanese trade tensions and the incident involving the threat of the imposition of countervailing duties by the United States on Canadian softwood lumber.
Author : Robert E. Baldwin Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 336 pages File Size : 41,37 MB Release : 2007-12-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0226035700
The need for careful research on trade policy is particularly acute, and this volume empirically addresses these and many other important issues. The contributors offer studies which integrate the institutional details of current trade policy with creative economic analyses. Marked by a shift from a traditional reliance on simulation models, these papers take their inspiration from recent changes in the assumptions traditionally underlying research in international trade theory. No longer are government policies viewed as being somehow "given" to the researcher; in part 1, "Analyses with a Political Economy Perspective," four papers treat such policies as endogenous and explicable in terms of political economy. Neither are product and factor markets seen as perfectly competitive; instead, the three papers in part 2, "Trade Policy Effects under Imperfectly Competitive Market Conditions," assume that firms consider the actions of other companies when formulating their decisions. In part 3, "A New Measure of Trade Restrictiveness and Estimates of Trade Policy Effects with CGE Models," the first essay explores the quantitative restrictions on cheese to develop and implement a new model of restrictive trade. Two final contributions address problems for which simulation modeling is especially useful. The first considers the effectiveness of an import surcharge in reducing the U.S. trade deficit and the second treats the welfare effects of liberalization in South Korea where increasing returns to scale are significant These innovative studies focus on economic behavior that will provide valuable insights for policymakers, academic economists, and students.
This dissertation brings together three empirical studies of international trade issues covering trade policy reforms, trade patterns and the duration of trade relationships in Latin American countries. In the first essay, we review export activities in Brazil since the 1990s, describing changes in export basket composition and diversification of destination markets. Using highly disaggregated trade data, we decompose export growth into the extensive margin (exports of new goods) and the intensive margin (more exports of established goods). We then estimate a probabilistic model of export decisions to investigate whether previous export experience in proximate markets contributes to the shipment of new goods to a trade partner. We find that prior export experience in neighboring countries has a small, positive effect on the probability of exporting in the future. As far as export promotion is concerned, this suggests that new trade relationships should be formed with countries within regions where previous export experience exists. After describing, in the first essay, what products and to what countries Brazil exports, in the second essay we study how long trade relationships last. We characterize the duration of trade relationships by investigating the length of time until Brazil stops exporting a good to a country and whether exports of particular products or to particular markets last longer than others. Our results indicate that trade relationships have a very short life, with a median duration of only 2 years. We add to the list of trade policy recommendations on export promotion by suggesting that instead of encouraging new relationships it might be better to prevent the existing ones from ending too soon. In the last essay, we study trade issues in another Latin American country. We perform a quantitative analysis of the impact of various trade policies on international trade patterns, domestic prices and poverty in Bolivia. With a unique dataset combining trade data with survey data at the household level, we simulate the magnitude of a variety of trade shocks using a partial-equilibrium model, feed these shocks into price and quantity changes, and finally feed these price and quantity changes into household incomes and expenditures.
Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty is a collection of key articles in three important areas of applied international trade research: measuring non-tariff barriers and their effects, the consequences of regional trading arrangements, especially on the countries excluded from them, and the connection between international trade and poverty. Drawing from 30 years of research and experience, L Alan Winters illustrates the development of techniques of this field and his continued commitment to answering real policy questions at the times at which they are debated. The collection shows the ways in which economic and econometric analysis can be used to answer real-world problems rigorously in the area of international trade and trade policy. Readers will find that some of the research included is of current methodological relevance and some of more historical significance. This volume is invaluable to anyone who is keen on developing their knowledge on trade policy, regionalism or poverty — three pressing issues in today's globalized world.