[PDF] Error In Economics eBook

Author : Julian Reiss
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 19,70 MB
Release : 2016-02-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1317496825

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What is the correct concept behind measures of inflation? Does money cause business activity or is it the other way around? Shall we stimulate growth by raising aggregate demand or rather by lowering taxes and thereby providing incentives to produce? Policy-relevant questions such as these are of immediate and obvious importance to the welfare of societies. The standard approach in dealing with them is to build a model, based on economic theory, answer the question for the model world and then apply the results to economic phenomena outside. Data come in, if at all, only in testing a limited number of the model's consequences. Despite some critical voices, economic methodology too has by and large subscribed to a "theory first" approach to applied economics. Error in Economics systematically develops an alternative to the theory-based orthodoxy. It places the methodical study of evidence at the centre of the scientific enterprise and thus provides a foundation for a methodology of evidence-based economics. But the book does not stop at the truism that claims should be based on the best available evidence. Rather, detailed studies in the areas of measurement, causal inference and policy analysis show what it means for a claim to be evidence-based in the context of a concrete case. The examples discussed concern topics as diverse as consumer price indices, radio spectrum auctions, the transmission mechanism, natural experiments on minimum wages and the evaluation of counterfactuals for policy. Error in Economics is essential reading for economic methodologists, philosophers of science and anyone interested in how claims about socio-economic matters are validated.

Author : Julian Reiss
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 309 pages
File Size : 39,11 MB
Release : 2016-02-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1317496817

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What is the correct concept behind measures of inflation? Does money cause business activity or is it the other way around? Shall we stimulate growth by raising aggregate demand or rather by lowering taxes and thereby providing incentives to produce? Policy-relevant questions such as these are of immediate and obvious importance to the welfare of societies. The standard approach in dealing with them is to build a model, based on economic theory, answer the question for the model world and then apply the results to economic phenomena outside. Data come in, if at all, only in testing a limited number of the model's consequences. Despite some critical voices, economic methodology too has by and large subscribed to a "theory first" approach to applied economics. Error in Economics systematically develops an alternative to the theory-based orthodoxy. It places the methodical study of evidence at the centre of the scientific enterprise and thus provides a foundation for a methodology of evidence-based economics. But the book does not stop at the truism that claims should be based on the best available evidence. Rather, detailed studies in the areas of measurement, causal inference and policy analysis show what it means for a claim to be evidence-based in the context of a concrete case. The examples discussed concern topics as diverse as consumer price indices, radio spectrum auctions, the transmission mechanism, natural experiments on minimum wages and the evaluation of counterfactuals for policy. Error in Economics is essential reading for economic methodologists, philosophers of science and anyone interested in how claims about socio-economic matters are validated.

Author : Grzegorz W. Kołodko
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 26,87 MB
Release : 2012-09-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0231150695

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Grzegorz W. Kolodko, one of the world's leading authorities on economics and development policy and a key architect of Poland's successful economic reforms, applies his far-reaching knowledge to the past and future of the world economy, introducing a framework for understanding our global situation that transcends any single discipline or paradigm. Deploying a novel mix of scientific evaluation and personal observation, Kolodko begins with a brief discussion of misinformation and its perpetuation in economics and politics. He criticizes the simplification of complex economic and social issues and investigates the link between developments in the global economy and cultural change, scientific discoveries, and political fluctuations. Underscoring the necessity of conceptual and theoretical innovation in understanding our global economic situation, Kolodko offers a provocative study of globalization and the possibility of coming out ahead in an era of worldwide interdependence. Deeply critical of neoliberalism, which sought to transfer economic control exclusively to the private sector, Kolodko explores the virtues of social-economic development and the new rules of the economic game. He concludes with a look at our near and distant future, questioning whether we have a say in its making.

Author : Altug Yalcintas
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 189 pages
File Size : 15,91 MB
Release : 2016-03-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 131770469X

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Is economics always self-corrective? Do erroneous theorems permanently disappear from the market of economic ideas? Intellectual Path Dependence in Economics argues that errors in economics are not always corrected. Although economists are often critical and open-minded, unfit explanations are nonetheless able to reproduce themselves. The problem is that theorems sometimes survive the intellectual challenges in the market of economic ideas even when they are falsified or invalidated by criticism and an abundance of counter-evidence. A key question which often gets little or no attention is: why do economists not reject theories when they have been refuted by evidence and falsified by philosophical reasoning? This book explores the answer to this question by examining the phenomenon of intellectual path dependence in the history of economic thought. It argues that the key reason why economists do not reject refuted theories is the epistemic costs of starting to use new theories. Epistemic costs are primarily the costs of scarcity of the most valued element in academic production: time. Epistemic scarcity overwhelmingly dominates the evolution of scientific research in such a way that when researchers start off a new research project, they allocate time between replicable and un-replicable research. This book is essential reading for anyone interested in the methodology, philosophy and history of economics.

Author : Riga, Marina
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 29,69 MB
Release : 2017-01-30
Category : Medical
ISBN : 1522523383

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Precise and flawless medical practice is imperative due to the delicate nature of patient lives and health. Without methods and technologies to detect medical mistakes, many lives would be compromised. Impact of Medical Errors and Malpractice on Health Economics, Quality, and Patient Safety is an essential reference source for the latest research on the detection and analysis of the various implications of medical errors and addresses the hidden malpractices that exist in healthcare systems globally. Featuring extensive coverage on a broad range of topics such as clinical pathways, decision-making techniques, and health information technology, this book is ideally designed for practitioners, professionals, and researchers seeking current research on various issues in healthcare provision.

Author : Henry Hazlitt
Publisher : Crown Currency
Page : 220 pages
File Size : 23,45 MB
Release : 2010-08-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0307760626

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With over a million copies sold, Economics in One Lesson is an essential guide to the basics of economic theory. A fundamental influence on modern libertarianism, Hazlitt defends capitalism and the free market from economic myths that persist to this day. Considered among the leading economic thinkers of the “Austrian School,” which includes Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich (F.A.) Hayek, and others, Henry Hazlitt (1894-1993), was a libertarian philosopher, an economist, and a journalist. He was the founding vice-president of the Foundation for Economic Education and an early editor of The Freeman magazine, an influential libertarian publication. Hazlitt wrote Economics in One Lesson, his seminal work, in 1946. Concise and instructive, it is also deceptively prescient and far-reaching in its efforts to dissemble economic fallacies that are so prevalent they have almost become a new orthodoxy. Economic commentators across the political spectrum have credited Hazlitt with foreseeing the collapse of the global economy which occurred more than 50 years after the initial publication of Economics in One Lesson. Hazlitt’s focus on non-governmental solutions, strong — and strongly reasoned — anti-deficit position, and general emphasis on free markets, economic liberty of individuals, and the dangers of government intervention make Economics in One Lesson every bit as relevant and valuable today as it has been since publication.

Author : T. Wansbeek
Publisher : North Holland
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 26,76 MB
Release : 2000-12-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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The book first discusses in depth various aspects of the well-known inconsistency that arises when explanatory variables in a linear regression model are measured with error. Despite this inconsistency, the region where the true regression coeffecients lies can sometimes be characterized in a useful way, especially when bounds are known on the measurement error variance but also when such information is absent. Wage discrimination with imperfect productivity measurement is discussed as an important special case. Next, it is shown that the inconsistency is not accidental but fundamental. Due to an identification problem, no consistent estimators may exist at all. Additional information is desirable. This information can be of various types. One type is exact prior knowledge about functions of the parameters. This leads to the CALS estimator. Another major type is in the form of instrumental variables. Many aspects of this are discussed, including heteroskedasticity, combination of data from different sources, construction of instruments from the available data, and the LIML estimator, which is especially relevant when the instruments are weak. The scope is then widened to an embedding of the regression equation with measurement error in a multiple equations setting, leading to the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) model. This marks the step from measurement error to latent variables. Estimation of the EFA model leads to an eigenvalue problem. A variety of models is reviewed that involve eignevalue problems as their common characteristic. EFA is extended to confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) by including restrictions on the parameters of the factor analysis model, and next by relating the factors to background variables. These models are all structural equation models (SEMs), a very general and important class of models, with the LISREL model as its best-known representation, encompassing almost all linear equation systems with latent variables. Estimation of SEMs can be viewed as an application of the generalized method of moments (GMM). GMM in general and for SEM in particular is discussed at great length, including the generality of GMM, optimal weighting, conditional moments, continuous updating, simulation estimation, the link with the method of maximum likelihood, and in particular testing and model evaluation for GMM. The discussion concludes with nonlinear models. The emphasis is on polynomial models and models that are nonlinear due to a filter on the dependent variables, like discrete choice models or models with ordered categorical variables.

Author : Robert William Fogel
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 163 pages
File Size : 21,62 MB
Release : 2013-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226256618

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We take for granted today that the assessments, measurements, and forecasts of economists are crucial to the decision-making of governments and businesses alike. But less than a century ago that wasn’t the case—economists simply didn’t have the necessary information or statistical tools to understand the ever more complicated modern economy. With Political Arithmetic, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Fogel and his collaborators tell the story of economist Simon Kuznets, the founding of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the creation of the concept of GNP, which for the first time enabled us to measure the performance of entire economies. The book weaves together the many strands of political and economic thought and historical pressures that together created the demand for more detailed economic thinking—Progressive-era hopes for activist government, the production demands of World War I, Herbert Hoover’s interest in business cycles as President Harding’s commerce secretary, and the catastrophic economic failures of the Great Depression—and shows how, through trial and error, measurement and analysis, economists such as Kuznets rose to the occasion and in the process built a discipline whose knowledge could be put to practical use in everyday decision-making. The product of a lifetime of studying the workings of economies and skillfully employing the tools of economics, Political Arithmetic is simultaneously a history of a key period of economic thought and a testament to the power of applied ideas.

Author : Steve Keen
Publisher : Zed Books
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 30,31 MB
Release : 2001-07-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781856499927

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What is the score card for economics at the start of the new millennium? While there are many different schools of economic thought, it is the neo-classical school, with its alleged understanding and simplistic advocacy of the market, that has become equated in the public mind with economics. This book shows that virtually every aspect of conventional neo-classical economics' thinking is intellectually unsound. Steve Keen draws on an impressive array of advanced critical thinking. He constitutes a profound critique of the principle concepts, theories, and methodologies of the mainstream discipline. Keen raises grave doubts about economics' pretensions to established scientific status and its reliability as a guide to understanding the real world of economic life and its policy-making.