[PDF] Energy Demand Modeling And Forecasting eBook

Author : Kevin Berk
Publisher : Springer Spektrum
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 28,26 MB
Release : 2015-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783658086688

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The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.

Author : Wei-Chiang Hong
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 179 pages
File Size : 23,10 MB
Release : 2020-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3030365298

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This book is written for researchers and postgraduates who are interested in developing high-accurate energy demand forecasting models that outperform traditional models by hybridizing intelligent technologies. It covers meta-heuristic algorithms, chaotic mapping mechanism, quantum computing mechanism, recurrent mechanisms, phase space reconstruction, and recurrence plot theory. The book clearly illustrates how these intelligent technologies could be hybridized with those traditional forecasting models. This book provides many figures to deonstrate how these hybrid intelligent technologies are being applied to exceed the limitations of existing models.

Author : Rafal Weron
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 192 pages
File Size : 26,41 MB
Release : 2007-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0470059990

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This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Author : Kevin Berk
Publisher : Springer
Page : 123 pages
File Size : 44,12 MB
Release : 2015-01-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3658086696

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The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.

Author : Adela Maria Bolet
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 35,47 MB
Release : 2019-08-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0429711468

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Although the energy headlines of 1985 proclaim the waning of OPEC, the collapse of oil prices, and the demise of the nuclear power industry, few policy analysts are examining the dynamic challenges and opportunities that may confront the electric power industry during the remainder of this century. In this pioneering work, Adela Maria Bolet attempts to do exactly this, namely, to reconcile the differences among forecasters as to the future of electricity demand in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.

Author : John Sterman
Publisher : Legare Street Press
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 11,6 MB
Release : 2023-07-18
Category :
ISBN : 9781019952344

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In this pioneering book, John Sterman presents a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the history of energy demand forecasting and the ways in which these forecasts have shaped energy policy and practice. Drawing on a range of social and natural science disciplines, Sterman argues for a more sophisticated and nuanced approach to energy forecasting that takes into account the complex and interdependent factors that drive energy demand. This book would be of interest to energy policy analysts, economists, and anyone interested in the science of decision-making under uncertainty. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.