[PDF] El Salvador Systematic Country Diagnostic eBook
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The 2015 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) concluded that El Salvador was "trapped” in vicious cyclesof low poverty reduction and growth and argued for a "big push” in six priority areas. Three mutuallyreinforcing cycles hampered growth and shared prosperity: (i) low growth and violence, (ii) low growth and migration, and (iii) low growth, savings, and investments. The SCD concluded that a big reform push in six priority areas was needed to break these cycles. Despite progress in some of these areas, previous governments have not built consensus for the "big push” of simultaneous reforms to break the cycles.This SCD Update (the Update) builds on the SCD as follows: (i) updating the country context and assessing progress in poverty and growth, (ii) broadening the analysis to include a vulnerability lens, and (iii) rerunning the prioritization framework to confirm or update priorities.
This paper focuses on policies to raise growth; underpin fiscal sustainability while enhancing social safety nets; and strengthen financial sector stability, deepening, and inclusiveness. GDP growth averaged 2 percent during 2000–14, well below the Central American regional average of 41⁄2 percent. While the underlying causes of the low growth are complex, a key channel through which they are evident appears to be low investment. Given the need to increase growth, revenue-raising measures should be accompanied by cuts in distortionary taxation. Stress tests suggest that financial buffers are adequate to contain most risks. The financial deepening and advancing financial inclusion could have a meaningful impact on both growth and poverty.
El Salvador has made significant development progress in the past 30 years. The end of the civil war in 1992 marked the establishment of a liberal democracy and an open export-led development model, which led to a reduction in poverty and inequality. However, with economic growth averaging a modest 2.4% in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, and productivity growth of 0.1% over the past decade, the post-war model has not generated the economic momentum or the jobs that the country needs.
Central America is undergoing an important transition. Urban populations are increasing at accelerated speeds, bringing pressing challenges for development, as well as opportunities to boost sustained, inclusive and resilient growth. Today, 59 percent of the region’s population lives in urban areas, but it is expected that 7 out of 10 people will live in cities within the next generation. At current rates of urbanization, Central America’s urban population will double in size by 2050, welcoming over 25 million new urban dwellers calling for better infrastructure, higher coverage and quality of urban services and greater employment opportunities. With more people concentrated in urban areas, Central American governments at the national and local levels face both opportunities and challenges to ensure the prosperity of their country’s present and future generations. The Central America Urbanization Review: Making Cities Work for Central America provides a better understanding of the trends and implications of urbanization in the six Central American countries -Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama- and the actions that central and local governments can take to reap the intended benefits of this transformation. The report makes recommendations on how urban policies can contribute to addressing the main development challenges the region currently faces such as lack of social inclusion, high vulnerability to natural disasters, and lack of economic opportunities and competitiveness. Specifically, the report focuses on four priority areas for Central American cities: institutions for city management, access to adequate and well-located housing, resilience to natural disasters, and competitiveness through local economic development. This book is written for national and local policymakers, private sector actors, civil society, researchers and development partners in Central America and all around the world interested in learning more about the opportunities that urbanization brings in the 21st century.
Author : World Bank Group Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 629 pages File Size : 35,66 MB Release : 2017-03-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1464810176
Stagnant global trade, subdued investment, and heightened policy uncertainty marked another difficult year for the world economy. A subdued recovery is expected for 2017, with receding obstacles to activity in commodity exporters and solid domestic demand in commodity importers. Weak investment is weighing on medium-term prospects across many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Although fiscal stimulus in major economies, if implemented, may boost global growth above expectations, risks to growth forecasts remain tilted to the downside. Important downside risks stem from heightened policy uncertainty in major economies. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.
Behavioral Insights for Development: Cases from Central America brings together a set of experiences that applied behavioral insights to different areas of public policy—in some cases through randomized control trials, and in others using surveys or behavioral games. These experiences collectively show the promise of public policies that are informed by a better understanding of what drives individual behavior. In Costa Rica, for example, informing households of how much water they consume relative to their neighbors reduced water consumption (chapter 1). In Guatemala, altering the way government communicates with taxpayers increased revenue collection (chapter 2). In Nicaragua, an analysis of a cash transfer program found that children in households receiving benefits exhibited significantly higher cognitive development—a result influenced by parental behavior changes during the program (chapter 3). In El Salvador, we explore how different biases explain the apparent puzzle of a gas subsidy reform that benefited most of the population yet proved to be widely unpopular (chapter 4). Chapter 5 also uses behavioral insights to analyze subsidy reforms in El Salvador, this time using a different methodology: a set of economic behavioral games designed to evaluate the willingness of individuals to accept subsidy reforms that would affect them directly. Finally, chapter 6 reflects on the progress made in applying behavioral insights in a development context. These cases illustrate, in practice, some of the findings of the World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior. In particular, they demonstrate the possibility of using nontraditional tools, complementary to regulation, in contexts where time and resources are limited. The World Bank has since established a Mind, Behavior, and Development (eMBeD) Unit within the Poverty and Equity Global Practice to mainstream and scale up behavioral science in public policies and programs. We hope these experiences will help to inform other practitioners about the potential of applying behavioral insights in a development context and will encourage them to consider such approaches as a complement to traditional policy measures.
Interpreting the History of a Region in Crisis / Robert H. Holden -- Land and Climate: Natural Constraints and Socio-Environmental Transformations / Anthony Goebel McDermott -- Regaining Ground: Indigenous Populations and Territories / Peter H. Herlihy, Matthew L. Fahrenbruch, Taylor A. Tappan -- The Ancient Civilizations / William R. Fowler -- Marginalization, Assimilation, and Resurgence: The Indigenous Peoples since Independence / Wolfgang Gabbert -- The Spanish Conquest? / Laura E. Matthew -- Spanish Colonial Rule / Stephen Webre -- The Kingdom of Guatemala as a Cultural Crossroads / Brianna Leavitt-Alcántara -- From Kingdom to Republics, 1808-1840 / Aaron Pollack -- The Political Economy / Robert G. Williams -- State Making and Nation Building / David Díaz Arias -- Central America and the United States / Michel Gobat -- The Cold War: Authoritarianism, Empire, and Social Revolution / Joaquín M. Chávez -- Central America since the 1990s: Crime, Violence, and the Pursuit of Democracy / Christine J. Wade -- The Rise and Retreat of the Armed Forces / Orlando J. Pérez and Randy Pestana -- Religion, Politics, and the State / Bonar L. Hernández Sandoval -- Women and Citizenship: Feminist and Suffragist Movements, 1880-1957 / Eugenia Rodríguez Sáenz -- Literature, Society, and Politics / Werner Mackenbach -- Guatemala / David Carey Jr. -- Honduras / Dario A. Euraque -- El Salvador / Erik Ching -- Nicaragua / Julie A. Charlip -- Costa Rica / Iván Molina -- Panama / Michael E. Donoghue -- Belize / Mark Moberg.
Author : M. Ayhan Kose Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 703 pages File Size : 48,7 MB Release : 2024-03-06 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1464820015
A structural growth slowdown is under way across the world: at current trends, the global rate of potential growth is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened. In addition, a series of shocks has affected the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. The challenges presented by this potential inability call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This book presents a sobering analysis of the secular growth slowdown based on the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date. With nearly all the forces that have driven growth and prosperity in recent decades now weakened, the book argues that a prolonged period of weakness is under way, with serious implications for emerging market and developing economies. The authors call for bold policy actions at both the national and global levels to lift growth prospects. The book is essential reading for policy makers, economists, and anyone concerned about the future of the global economy. Beatrice Weder di Mauro Professor of International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute, and President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Economic policy making is becoming increasingly complicated in the 2020s. In addition to tackling traditional trade-offs in aggregate demand management and improving efficiency on the supply side, policy makers need to address new priorities and challenges, from addressing climate change and its impacts to improving income distribution, all in the context of lower growth rates, waning productivity growth, and flattening of the globalization process that has brought unprecedented prosperity across the globe and lifted more than a billion people out of poverty. In Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects, the authors do a phenomenal job of assessing these trends at the global and regional levels, identifying and unpacking salient twenty-first-century policy challenges, and providing thoughtful and evidence-based policy prescriptions for leaders in advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Importantly, the book underscores that these challenges tend to be global and, hence, global cooperation at all levels is necessary to achieve optimal results. Alas, we seem to be going in the opposite direction; this book offers a road map to put us back on the path to creating a more integrated, prosperous, and equitable global community. Michael G. Plummer Director, SAIS Europe and ENI Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University
Author : World Bank Group Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 605 pages File Size : 33,94 MB Release : 2017-01-23 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1464809518
Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.