[PDF] Econometric Modelling Of European Money Demand eBook

Author : Engelbert Plassmann
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 209 pages
File Size : 36,64 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3642573363

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The introduction of a single European currency constitutes a remarkable instance of internationalization of monetary policy. Whether a concomitant internationalization can be detected also in the econometric foundations of monetary policy is the topic dealt with in this book. The basic theoretical ingredients comprise a data-driven approach to econometric modelling and a generalized approach to cross-sectional aggregation. The empirical result is a data-consistent structural money demand function isolated within a properly identified, dynamic macroeconomic system for Europe. The book itself evolved from a research project within the former Son derforschungsbereich SFB 178 "Internationalization of the Economy" at the University of Konstanz. Its finalization entails a due amount of gratitude to be extended into several directions: I am personally indebted, first of all, to my academic supervisor, Professor Dr. Nikolaus Laufer, for originally inspiring this work and for meticulously perusing its eventual result. Professor Dr. Win fried Pohlmeier, as a second supervisor, provided valuable confidence bounds around an earlier draft. The comments of both supervisors contributed substantially to the present shape of the book. I am institutionally indebted to the University of Konstanz, notably its Faculty of Economics and Statistics, for continuous provision of an excellent research environment, and to the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft in Bonn for generous sponsorship of the former SFB, whose financial support dur ing that period is gratefully acknowledged. I am also indebted to Dresdner Bank AG Frankfurt, Risk Methodology Trading, for benign tolerance of all distractions associated with the preparation of the final manuscript.

Author : Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 266 pages
File Size : 49,10 MB
Release : 2013-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3662125390

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In 1999 a number of member states of the European Union will adopt a common currency. This change in the monetary system requires that a Eur opean Central Bank is set up and a common monetary policy is pursued. There is general agreement among those countries which are likely to join the common currency that price level stability has to be the ultimate objec tive of monetary po1icy. It is an open issue, however, what kind of policy is best suited for that purpose. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of cen tral importance. Therefore a workshop on Money Demand in Europe was organized at the Humboldt University in Berlin on October 10/11, 1997. This research conference brought together academic and central bank econo mists and econometricians predominantly from Europe to discuss issues on specification, estimation and, in particular, stability of money demand rela tions both in a single equation and in a systems framework. In this volume revised versions of the papers presented and discussed at the workshop are collected. The volume thereby gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe on the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank.

Author : Christian Müller
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 46,80 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3642574009

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The first of January 1999 marked the beginning of a macroeconomic experi ment without precedent in modern history. For the first time eleven European countries agreed to abolish their local currencies in favour of a single one, the Euro. Not surprisingly, the necessary preparatory process has been accompa nied by an intensive discussion about the best way to manage the new Euro currency properly. To spur on that discourse was the principal motivation for this thesis. The introductory chapter attempts to bridge economic and econometric views on money demand analysis. It should help to motivate estimation proce dures and to standardize interpretation techniques, hopefully initiating further discussion in that direction. It intends to make the following chapters more accessible. In this thesis I approach the general subject in two principle ways. In chapter 3 I consider technical issues dealing with time series with shifts in the mean. Two years ago, Helmut Liitkepohl and Pentti Saikkonen asked me to join in on a related project which became the cornerstone of this chapter. I have very much appreciated the highly instructive collaboration with both these scholars.

Author :
Publisher : Transaction Publishers
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 26,36 MB
Release :
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1412821452

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The income velocity of money-an inverse measure of the demand for money balances-is the ratio of the money value of income to the average money stock that the public (excluding banks) holds in a given period. Why the magnitude of that ratio has changed over time is the subject of Michael D. Bordo and Lars Jonung's classic study, originally published as "The Long-Run Behavior of the Velocity of Circulation." Supported by statistical data, econometric estimation techniques, and meticulous historical analysis, this work describes, in an international setting, how slow-moving economic, social, and political forces interact with the decisions households and firms make about how much money to hold. Annual time series of velocity for several countries from the late nineteenth century to the late twentieth century display a U-shaped pattern. Existing theories can explain each section of the velocity curve-the falling, flat, and rising parts-but the overall pattern is not consistent with any one theory. Here the authors put forth a comprehensive explanation for this behavior over time. Their theory is largely an extension of the approach of Knut Wicksell, the Swedish economist who stressed the role of substitution between monetary assets. This approach, which emphasizes institutional variables, is incorporated into the arguments for the traditional long-run money demand (velocity) function. Four types of empirical evidence strongly support the authors' theory: econometric studies of the long-run velocity function for several countries; a cross section study of approximately eighty countries in the postwar period; a case study of the Swedish monetization process in the fifty years before World War I; and an examination of the time series properties of velocity. "Demand for Money" suggests that institutional factors, as opposed to real income, play a greater role in velocity than previously thought. And these institutional factors have a major impact on monetary policy. This is a book that will prove of great value to economists, monetary strategists, and policymakers. br> Michael D. Bordo is professor of economics and director of the Center for Monetary and Financial History at Rutgers University. He is editor of a series of books, "Studies in Macroeconomic History," and the author of "Essays on the Gold Standard and Related Regimes," and (with Anna J. Schwartz) "A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard 1821-1931." Lars Jonung is research adviser at ECFIN, European Commission, Brussels. He was previously professor of economics at the Stockholm School of Economics, and served as chief economic advisor to Prime Minister Carl Bildt from 1992 to 1994. Jonung is the author of "The Political Economy of Price Controls: The Swedish Experience 1970-1985," and editor of "The Stockholm School of Economics Revisited."

Author : Gunnar Bårdsen
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 361 pages
File Size : 21,69 MB
Release : 2005
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0199246491

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This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.

Author : Gabriel Fagan
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 42,87 MB
Release : 2006-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 184542803X

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This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole. The volume takes stock of the current macroeconometric modelling infrastructure available within the Eurosystem, highlighting not only the structures and main features of the models used but also their purposes and underlying model-building philosophies. A bird s eye view of the key details of the design, structure and characteristics of the models is provided, along with information on the responses of these models to a series of standard economic and policy shocks. This is the first time that a comprehensive description and systematic comparison of the main macroeconomic models has been published. This book will be of great interest to Central Bank and government economists, as well as academics, economists and students with an interest in central banking, econometric modelling, forecasting and macroeconomic policy.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 25,78 MB
Release : 1990-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451921047

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This study shows that the aggregate demand for M1 in the group of countries participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System can be expressed as a stable function of ERM-wide income, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate of the European Currency Unit (ECU) vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. A notable feature of the model is the rapid elimination of monetary disequilibria, in contrast with most single-country estimates which tend to find implausibly slow adjustment. These results are suggestive: if robust, they would indicate that, even at the present stage of economic and monetary integration, a European central bank could, in principle, implement monetary control more effectively than the individual national central banks.

Author : Kieran McMorrow
Publisher :
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 40,12 MB
Release : 1998
Category : Demand for money
ISBN :

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Recoge: 1. Rationale for the Modelling Strategy Adopted in the Study - 2. Specification Issues - 3. Establishing the Time Series Properties of the Variables - 4. Cointegration Analysis: The Multivariate Approach - 5. Single equation cointegration analysis: The Engle-Granger Procedure for Estimating the Error Correction Model - 6. Evaluation of the Robustness of the Error Correction Model: Diagnostic and Stability Tests.

Author : Volker Clausen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 213 pages
File Size : 34,76 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3642595650

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The euro and the ESCB have started in January 1999 and there is naturally a wide-ranging interest in academia and among policymakers in OECD coun tries, how successful European Monetary Union will and can be. EMU has started with 11 countries and experienced a rapid depreciation of the cur rency. With so many EU countries joining for a historical monetary union in a period of economic globalization, international financial market changes and ongoing EU enlargement the problem of monetary policy efficiency becomes crucial; especially as so many countries in the EU still have high unemploy ment rates and the euro has just started at the beginning of a cyclical upswing in the euro zone. Monetary policy is also quite crucial, because the Maastricht convergence criteria severely restrict the scope of national fiscal policy. With a very limited stock of valuable European monetary experience which could be usefully exploited by the ECB and the ESCB respectively, one naturally will appreciate advanced economic modeling of the main issues. This book takes an analytical look at the problem of asymmetric monetary transmission in Euroland. Facing the ECB's monetary policy, individual mem ber countries are likely to experience different policy effects. Countries differ in their financial structure -a well-known argument in the literature -but also in the characteristics of goods and labor markets. The latter fields have been somewhat neglected in the literature but receive broad analytical attention here.

Author : Dennis L. Hoffman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 24,24 MB
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9400918143

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The econometric consequences of nonstationary data have wide ranging im plications for empirical research in economics. Specifically, these issues have implications for the study of empirical relations such as a money demand func tion that links macroeconomic aggregates: real money balances, real income and a nominal interest rate. Traditional monetary theory predicts that these nonsta tionary series form a cointegrating relation and accordingly, that the dynamics of a vector process comprised of these variables generates distinct patterns. Re cent econometric developments designed to cope with nonstationarities have changed the course of empirical research in the area, but many fundamental challenges, for example the issue of identification, remain. This book represents the efforts undertaken by the authors in recent years in an effort to determine the consequences that nonstationarity has for the study of aggregate money demand relations. We have brought together an empirical methodology that we find useful in conducting empirical research. Some of the work was undertaken during the authors' sabbatical periods and we wish to acknowledge the generous support of Arizona State University and Michigan State University respectively. Professor Hoffman wishes to acknowledge the support of the Fulbright-Hays Foundation that supported sabbattical research in Europe and separate support of the Council of 100 Summer Research Program at Arizona State University.